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Why is Kurt Warner is so undervalued in redraft leagues?

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Postby steelerfan513 » Sun May 14, 2006 2:19 pm

he has been injury-prone, and he has matt leinart, who many praise as the most nfl-ready qb, waitin behind him. not to mention the offensive line hasnt seen any humongous improvements (the guard in the 2nd round helps, but doesnt complete the line), and edgerrin james may take away some of his passes. i still believe he could be a good starter, but it isnt a safe play.
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Postby maddog60 » Sun May 14, 2006 2:39 pm

dirty weasel wrote:For those that factor injury and expected missed games into their stat projections, what number did you rank Priest Holmes last year? If you said you thought he'd miss half a season, like he did in 2004, that meant you woulda ranked him around 30th. Come on now. I can bet my life that he went no later than the 2nd round in every single fantasy draft in the entire world. Even with the injury risk he was still listed as a top 5 RB. So why the double standard with Kurt?


I dont think you can compare with Priest. Priest was in a situation to put up #1 RB PPG. That itself counts for a lot more than #1 QB numbers, let alone only top 10 QB numbers. Also, Larry Johnson was completely unproven, had a bad history (Penn State RBs haven't faired well), had spent a good deal of time in Vermeil's doghouse. Also, Priest had shown the ability to comeback from injuries that scared other people away (and went on to break the TD record after the first time people worried he was too injury prone due to his hip).

Warner on the other hand, has not been the same QB since his string of injuries the past few years, might put up top 5 QB numbers, but even that doesnt compare to top 5 RB numbers, has a guy behind him who is considered largely NFL ready and clearly is not in the coach's doghouse.

I have no doubt Warner will put up top 10 PPG while he's starting. I would just rather get a guy who can put up slightly less numbers who I don't need to handcuff for draft another similar level QB to gaurantee I have a starter.
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Postby michaelavelli » Sun May 14, 2006 2:39 pm

dirty weasel wrote:For those that factor injury and expected missed games into their stat projections, what number did you rank Priest Holmes last year? If you said you thought he'd miss half a season, like he did in 2004, that meant you woulda ranked him around 30th. Come on now. I can bet my life that he went no later than the 2nd round in every single fantasy draft in the entire world. Even with the injury risk he was still listed as a top 5 RB. So why the double standard with Kurt?


The double standard is because Warner is a fantasy QB2 when healthy and Holmes is a top 5 RB1 when healthy. Risk/reward for Holmes is a much better situation - you can draft another QB who is Warner-like.
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Postby CC » Sun May 14, 2006 3:00 pm

skibrett15 wrote:there shouldn't be. If he starts, he's a top 10 QB, and the backup that you draft is going to score less, but it's not like you lose out completely. PPG outweighs total points sometimes. That might be true for Kurt. He's going to toss some picks though. Plus he didn't toss that many TDs last year. The yardage was solid, but TDs weren't spectacular. I think 3500/21/17 seems reasonable assuming no injury.


21 passing TDs by the Cards this year? I think you will see 25-28 passing TDs out of the QB position in Arizona.
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Postby Kensat30 » Sun May 14, 2006 3:52 pm

Because of the strong possibility that Warner gets taken out at the end of the season and Leinart gets his feet wet.
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Postby CC » Sun May 14, 2006 4:06 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Because of the strong possibility that Warner gets taken out at the end of the season and Leinart gets his feet wet.


Exactly. This is almost exactly the same as the situation with Eli.
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Postby Crimedogg32 » Sun May 14, 2006 4:11 pm

Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Because of the strong possibility that Warner gets taken out at the end of the season and Leinart gets his feet wet.


Exactly. This is almost exactly the same as the situation with Eli.


cards actually have a chance to be good and maybe even compete for playoffs they wont take him out if that is happening.

This is why you couple him with like a Drew Brees or a Jake Delhomme or the 3rd tier QBs and just play the matchups which id almost rather have then Peyton Manning (this is why you dont draft QBs early)
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Postby giants! » Sun May 14, 2006 4:24 pm

I found a few things wrong with your post although I do agree to an extent.

You wrote:Sure, their ground game will improve, but Edge catches alot too, so it won't eat into the ARI passing stats.

This is where the main problem with your argument is. The improvement in their ground game is tremendous. It is not a slight upgrade, it is a huge upgrade. Last year, the Cardinals threw the ball 419 times, compared to 360 runs. That means that they had 11 passing plays for every 9 running plays or 55% of the time. James by himself had 360 attempts last year, and he was not even on the field for large stretches of that time. Arizona did not pay a huge amount of money for Edge to just catch balls. Edge will run the ball 375 times along with 100 or so for J.J. Arrington and Arizona will therefore pass less and less.

Quote:"The only way Leinart will play in 2006 is if Kurt Warner gets injured"

Why not? When Arizona will find itself out of contention, Leinart will likely play. Add in the fact that Leinart is semi ready and what becomes highly unlikely is Leinart not playing this year.

Quote: " He sure helped, as evidenced by Indy leading the league in '06 with .62 sacks per pass attempts. Let's say Edge can only pick up half those sackers from last year"

Indianapolis had a great line last year, Edge was not the only reason that sacks were low.
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Postby dirty weasel » Sun May 14, 2006 4:53 pm

skibrett15 wrote:there shouldn't be. If he starts, he's a top 10 QB, and the backup that you draft is going to score less, but it's not like you lose out completely. PPG outweighs total points sometimes. That might be true for Kurt. He's going to toss some picks though. Plus he didn't toss that many TDs last year. The yardage was solid, but TDs weren't spectacular. I think 3500/21/17 seems reasonable assuming no injury.


While I agree with your TD's/INT's, I think your yardage is way off. How can you take 60 yards off last season's stats for ARI? You just took them from 277 YPG to 217. You don't think ARI will finish in the middle of the pack in passing yardage, do you? Well, that's where you just put them.
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Postby CC » Sun May 14, 2006 6:18 pm

Crimedogg32 wrote:
Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Because of the strong possibility that Warner gets taken out at the end of the season and Leinart gets his feet wet.


Exactly. This is almost exactly the same as the situation with Eli.


cards actually have a chance to be good and maybe even compete for playoffs they wont take him out if that is happening.

This is why you couple him with like a Drew Brees or a Jake Delhomme or the 3rd tier QBs and just play the matchups which id almost rather have then Peyton Manning (this is why you dont draft QBs early)


Tell that to the '04 Giants.
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