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Why is Kurt Warner is so undervalued in redraft leagues?

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Postby Crimedogg32 » Sun May 14, 2006 11:38 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
Crimedogg32 wrote:
maddog60 wrote:
Crimedogg32 wrote:exactly the 04 Giants were dumb and they pulled him when they are in contention while he was playing alright. Hopefully the Cards will learn from past mistakes


I wouldn't say they were dumb for pulling him to put in their franchise QB. Take a look at Cincy. While they didn't do it mid-season, they had a on the cusp playoff bound team with Kitna at the help, and sacrificed an entire year to let Carson Palmer develop.

Whats dumb about what the Giants did, is that they put their rookie QB up against a Murderer's Row of defenses. His first 5 starts consisted of the Skins, Steelers, Falcons, Ravens, and Eagles. 4 of the top 6 defenses in fewest points allowed, the top 2 teams in sacks, 3 of the top 6 rushing defenses in ypc (so you couldn't really count on the running game to bail him out). I mean, in 2004 Eli got probably the toughest test any rookie QB has ever received, facing defenses that could've stifled his brother's numbers. That was a very stupid idea.


I personally think it is dumb to throw away playoffs chances when you start out good (Wasnt in like 5-2 and they pulled him at 5-4?) To me it makes a lot more sense to do what Cincy did and give him a year to rest (Eli didnt get that) but also to do it from the start so the players know what they are dealing with and they can develops rythms.


Bengal's just missed the playoffs in Palmer's first year as 16 game starter. And they didn't make the playoffs during Palmer's rookie year by leaving in Kitna for 16 games. The Giant's on the other hand, made the playoffs in Eli's first 16 start year. They probably wouldn't have made the playoffs even if Warner started 16 games (tried to start).

I would say that the NYG method came out ahead.


whos better now? Considering by almost everyone estimation that Palmer is superior to Manning I cant say how cant think that worked out better in the end.

In a weak NFC they definatly had a shot to make the playoffs with Warner at the helm would they we will never know but what we do know is that with Manning they did absolutely nothing that year
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Postby maddog60 » Mon May 15, 2006 5:20 am

Crimedogg32 wrote:whos better now? Considering by almost everyone estimation that Palmer is superior to Manning I cant say how cant think that worked out better in the end.


You can't possibly be attributing all of Palmer's superiority as a QB over Manning to him sitting for a full year instead of half a year? That's ridiculous. He's simply a more gifted QB it would seem (unless Eli miraculously discovers how to have his brother's accuracy).
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Postby mysticphysh » Mon May 15, 2006 11:17 am

At this point in their careers, I wouldn't say palmer is better than eli. I would, however, say that Chad and the Housh are leaps and bounds better then Plex and Toomer.
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Postby Crimedogg32 » Mon May 15, 2006 11:43 am

maddog60 wrote:
Crimedogg32 wrote:whos better now? Considering by almost everyone estimation that Palmer is superior to Manning I cant say how cant think that worked out better in the end.


You can't possibly be attributing all of Palmer's superiority as a QB over Manning to him sitting for a full year instead of half a year? That's ridiculous. He's simply a more gifted QB it would seem (unless Eli miraculously discovers how to have his brother's accuracy).


There talent shouldnt be to different both being #1 overall picks but id agree Palmer has more. I just dont understand how the Giants plan worked better when they are the worse than the Bengals
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Postby The Lung » Sun Jul 02, 2006 12:15 pm

Here's a good article on Warner.

From Fanball: http://www.fanball.com/fb/article.cfm/ID.6689

Let's say you've held off taking a quarterback in your fantasy football draft until the late rounds, and now it's time to make your move.

With the usual suspects off the board, you find yourself intrigued by the prospect of nabbing a former MVP with a pair of top-10 wideouts. Yes, you're thinking Kurt Warner.

Shrewd move, right? After all, with rankings for Warner running from nine to 19 he's going to be on the board. And have you seen the Cards' schedule? They come out of the gate with the Niners, Seahawks, and Rams—each 23rd or lower against the pass last year—and don't see a top 20 pass defense after November 19.

Of course, Warner has missed 35 games over the past four seasons and hasn't played more than 10 games in any one campaign since 2001, so you'll need to grab rookie Matt Leinart as insurance. Still, you're not overly worried because Leinart is the most NFL-ready of the rookie quarterbacks, so even if Warner goes down you're covered.

Except for that pesky bye in week nine.

A little earlier in the year and maybe you'd be willing to let it slide. However, week nine is right in the heart of the playoff push, and odds are most of the decent signal-callers who went undrafted will have already been snapped up by that time.

Worse, those who drafted Jake Delhomme and Donovan McNabb will be mining the same territory, searching for bye-week fill-ins of their own.

And that pool isn't deep to begin with; of quarterbacks who will likely be available, only Byron Leftwich and Chris Simms have decent matchups on paper.

Kind of makes you stop and think, doesn't it? Waiting on a quarterback should make things easier, not harder. And yet you find yourself staring this Cardinals conundrum smack-dab in the beak.

What do you do? At this point, you've got three options.

Buy the insurance: If your roster size allows it, make room for three quarterbacks. You'll get Warner and that soft early schedule, plus you'll get the favorable fantasy playoff schedule with Warner or Leinart, whom you'll have to nab as a handcuff. And you can get Leftwich or Simms (or another quarterback, though keep in mind that week-nine Cardinals bye) later on to cover all your bases at the quarterback position.

Live dangerously: Perhaps your league's roster restrictions—or perhaps your needs at other positions, or just plain personal preference—won't allow you to stock three quarterbacks. You could hope Waner stays healthy and keeps the job all year while Leinart carries a clipboard, choosing either not to draft the handcuff or hoping something floats to the top of the free agent pool in week nine. Or you could take it to the extreme and not grab any insurance for Warner. As Slider from Top Gun might say, "Gutsiest move I ever saw."

Look elsewhere: It's not as if Warner is the only option. Even if you're in a 14-team league, you should have alternatives like Leftwich, Brett Favre, and Billy Volek still on the board. Just tell yourself strength of schedule is overrated, the Cards will pass less now that they think they have a running game with Edgerrin James, and you won't cringe every time Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald catch a touchdown pass.

And you thought waiting on a quarterback would make things easier. Silly you.
(~);}

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(~);}
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Postby Free Bagel » Sun Jul 02, 2006 12:21 pm

Crimedogg32 wrote:whos better now? Considering by almost everyone estimation that Palmer is superior to Manning I cant say how cant think that worked out better in the end.


Palmer has also been in the league a year longer, which when talking about young QBs makes a huge difference. Palmer's 2nd season isn't even comparable to Eli's 2nd season. Comparing a young QBs 3rd season to another's 2nd season isn't really fair for that position. Who knows what Eli will do this year.
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Postby My team is injured » Sun Jul 02, 2006 1:13 pm

mysticphysh wrote:At this point in their careers, I wouldn't say palmer is better than eli. I would, however, say that Chad and the Housh are leaps and bounds better then Plex and Toomer.



I disagree... it is not simply the receiving options... if you look at skill positions anyway, the giants have the much better TE and better RB though Rudi/Perry is a talented 1-2... though cinci's WR are on another level than the g-men, I'll give you that

regardless, Carson Palmer has shown the consistent improvement through his 29 starts that Eli hasn't shown through his 23 starts...

in Carson's first season playing, he had 5 TDs vs. 10 INT his first 7 games.. he also only had 2 games with a qb rating over 66 and threw for 200 plus yds only 3 times... his last 6 starts, he had 13 TDs vs 8 INT, only 1 game with a QB rating under 82, and 5 200 yd efforts... carson was also incredibly consistent last season

even disregarding eli's 7 starts in 2004, he got significantly worse last season from the first half to second half... everyone probably knows how he tailed off so I'm not going to post the numbers..

I don't see why a comparison can't be made between palmer and eli... yes, eli has been in the league a year less and has 6 less starts under his belt.. but carson has had a consistent improvement while eli has lacked this... carson showed this improvement in his first season as a starter and continued it in his second season... eli started off poorly as expected, got better and looked promising and then completely fell off.. it's way too early to make assumptions based on where their careers will head but carson clearly has the edge so far
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Postby Free Bagel » Sun Jul 02, 2006 5:19 pm

My team is injured wrote:yes, eli has been in the league a year less and has 6 less starts under his belt.. but carson has had a consistent improvement while eli has lacked this... carson showed this improvement in his first season as a starter and continued it in his second season... eli started off poorly as expected, got better and looked promising and then completely fell off.. it's way too early to make assumptions based on where their careers will head but carson clearly has the edge so far


This is extremely misleading. Eli didn't slowly continue to improve because his first improvement was so fast. Of course Palmer improved from his 5TD/10int ration....everyone outside of Ryan Leaf and possibly Akili Smith is going to improve upon that. You can't fault Eli for setting himself up with an immediately higher floor.

Basically if one guy throws 0 TDs and 100 INTs to start and then next year throws 3 TDs and 97 INTs that's not better than a guy who throws 100 INTs and 0 TDs one year and then 90 TDs and 10 INTs the next year just because his was an improvement on lousy numbers and the others was a drop in great numbers.

Obviously that's a very extreme example but you get the point.
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Postby My team is injured » Sun Jul 02, 2006 6:12 pm

Free Bagel wrote:This is extremely misleading. Eli didn't slowly continue to improve because his first improvement was so fast. Of course Palmer improved from his 5TD/10int ration....everyone outside of Ryan Leaf and possibly Akili Smith is going to improve upon that. You can't fault Eli for setting himself up with an immediately higher floor.

Basically if one guy throws 0 TDs and 100 INTs to start and then next year throws 3 TDs and 97 INTs that's not better than a guy who throws 100 INTs and 0 TDs one year and then 90 TDs and 10 INTs the next year just because his was an improvement on lousy numbers and the others was a drop in great numbers.

Obviously that's a very extreme example but you get the point.


I get what you're trying to say (by the way, I think you meant 100 TDS and 0 INTS for the second guy) and there's some validity there but I still disagree...

carson has started out his career better, shown more consistent improvement and gotten to the point of excelling consistently in less careers starts.. carson's improvement was pretty damn fast as well, if not faster, going from 5 TDS and 10 INTs in his first 7 starts to 9 straight games with a QB rating of at least 100... and he didn't have a letdown following this streak

I think eli has been overhyped as he has never got his completion percentage up, even when he was playing better the first half of last season... the reason his rating was higher was his TD:INT ratio and not his completion percentage which was about the same first half and second half of last season.. completion percentage is often down early in careers for scrambling qbs but eli is a pocket qb who must improve that signficantly to reach the next level as a QB

I just think carson palmer has been better from game 1 to game 29 in pretty much every aspect in his career versus eli in his first 23 starts..
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Postby Kensat30 » Sun Jul 02, 2006 8:44 pm

Who says Carson is better than Eli? They both made it to the playoffs in '05 and they both lost.
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