Willis McGahee - Overrated

[michaelavelli]

I've been prepping for a dynasty draft that will be starting up soon, and in my research, I found myself hindered by one particular question - why the hell is Willis McGahee ranked so high?

This is from the Compiled Position Rankings thread put up by ironman:

1. Larry Johnson
2. LaDainian Tomlinson
3. Shaun Alexander
4. Tiki Barber
5. Clinton Portis
6. Edgerrin James
7. Lamont Jordan
8. Rudi Johnson
9. Steven Jackson
10. Cadillac Williams
11. Ronnie Brown
12. Willis McGahee

His big "breakout" year was 2004 when he compiled over 1100 yards and 13 TD's in just 11 games. While this span is certainly impressive, it was also just a 4.0 ypc average, which is, obviously, pretty mediocre. The TD's are impressive certainly, but I'd rather see more important indicators that are less variable - ypc being one of them.

So then, entering 2005, McGahee is hyped to the max, and in dynasty leagues and even redraft leagues, McGahee is not falling to a double-digit pick.

His 2005 campaign is pretty miserable, 1200 rushing yards, a 3.8 ypc, and just 5 measely touchdowns. He is on a horrible team with an offense that could've actually gotten WORSE this off-season, and he is not a factor in the passing game.

A 3.9 career rusher on possibly one of the worst offenses in the league who has never reached a near elite level of performance ranked 12th on a compiled rankings list ahead of a number of RB's who are much more established, productive, and consistent.

Can anyone help me out here? Is it just talent? Is his ceiling so high that it outweighs his lack of production and keeps him anchored where he is?

Let me know what you think.

[CC]

It's talent, if they ever get a good offensive line and solid offense around him he will be a stud. He should be better this year than he was last year anyways.

[michaelavelli]

It's talent, if they ever get a good offensive line and solid offense around him he will be a stud. He should be better this year than he was last year anyways.

Why?

[CC]

It's talent, if they ever get a good offensive line and solid offense around him he will be a stud. He should be better this year than he was last year anyways.

Why?

Because he will be more experienced. The offense is really not significantly worse than last years and Willis should be smarter. He ran into the pile a lot last year and also tried to bounce it outside at inoppurtune times and he should improve with game experience. Also, I think with the loss of Moulds he will be more involved in the passing game. Don't expect him to be a stud, but I would say 1400 total yards and 8 TDs is a pretty fair estimation.

[thriftyrocker]

A big difference between McGahee 04 and McGahee 05 was the defense. In 04, Buffalo was #2 in team defense. In 05, they were #29. A great defense gives you a short field. A short field gives you RZ runs for your RB.

Takeo Spikes is back. They drafted 2 defensive guys in Rd 1 (even if they were reaches). The defense may not be #2, but even if it is mediocre, it helps McGahee a lot.

Losman is still terrible, but the good news is there's not much room to regress!

[michaelavelli]

A big difference between McGahee 04 and McGahee 05 was the defense. In 04, Buffalo was #2 in team defense. In 05, they were #29. A great defense gives you a short field. A short field gives you RZ runs for your RB.

Takeo Spikes is back. They drafted 2 defensive guys in Rd 1 (even if they were reaches). The defense may not be #2, but even if it is mediocre, it helps McGahee a lot.

Losman is still terrible, but the good news is there's not much room to regress!

This might help account for the TD's, but I think it's more that the OFFENSE was horrible than the defense being horrible.

But what doe sthe defense have to do with a very pedestrian 3.8 ypc?

[michaelavelli]

It's talent, if they ever get a good offensive line and solid offense around him he will be a stud. He should be better this year than he was last year anyways.

Why?

Because he will be more experienced. The offense is really not significantly worse than last years and Willis should be smarter. He ran into the pile a lot last year and also tried to bounce it outside at inoppurtune times and he should improve with game experience. Also, I think with the loss of Moulds he will be more involved in the passing game. Don't expect him to be a stud, but I would say 1400 total yards and 8 TDs is a pretty fair estimation.

First 8 games in 05 - 4.27 ypc
Last 8 games in 05 - 3.26 ypc

If McGahee were going to improve because of "experience", why did he actually regress in the 2nd half of last season? Was he not gaining experience?

I would also submit to you that losing Eric Moulds hurts McGahee more than it helps him since it allows opposing defenses to ignore an already anemic passing attack.

[thriftyrocker]

Not much difference between 3.8 and 4.0. Eddie George averaged 3.6 for his career and never topped 4.1 in a season.

A feature back who gets RZ has a lot of value regardless of the team. Maybe he is a 2nd rd instead of 1st rd but he is still huge.

Who would you take ahead of him at RB?

[Popcynical]

I agree with saying that it has a lot to do with defense. If your defense can hold a team and not give up as many points, the running back will be used more to run down the clock. If your defense is giving up tons of points, you're relying on your quarterback more to get you points.

[michaelavelli]

I agree with saying that it has a lot to do with defense. If your defense can hold a team and not give up as many points, the running back will be used more to run down the clock. If your defense is giving up tons of points, you're relying on your quarterback more to get you points.

Defense, aside, Mcgahee still had 325 carries last year. It's not like his final numbers were a result of him not getting the rock enough - he did not do much with it when he did get it.