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Willis McGahee - Overrated

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Postby Twisted Sister » Thu May 18, 2006 10:35 am

Per the thread title... yes McGahee is overrated / overvalued. :-t
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Postby saundman2000 » Thu May 18, 2006 10:49 am

One of the biggest factors I see people overlook when evaluating stats time and time again is whether the TEAM the player was on was trailing or winning consistently.

The Bills trailed all the time last year. That is not a good thing for running backs. Look at the top RBs and you will see a trend. They all played for teams that built leads and then ran the ball down their opponents throat.

So the question is whether the Bills can (as a team) be more productive on offense and become closer to one of those teams that builds leads. If they can, then MaGahee will have better stats even if he brings the same level of effort and intensity that he did last year.

It's not all on Willis... he will gain or be held back by the performance of the Bills offense. The question is not whether Willis is suddenly going to get better, its whether the Bills offense is suddenly going to get better.

I would say that based on expectations Magahee is overrated. His talent is probably even a little overrated. But if the Bills start getting thier collective sh1t together, then he will be a lock as a top 10 back for several years to come.
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Postby onnestabe » Thu May 18, 2006 12:10 pm

saundman2000 wrote:One of the biggest factors I see people overlook when evaluating stats time and time again is whether the TEAM the player was on was trailing or winning consistently.

The Bills trailed all the time last year. That is not a good thing for running backs. Look at the top RBs and you will see a trend. They all played for teams that built leads and then ran the ball down their opponents throat.


Quoted for truth...

I was unfortunate enough to draft McGahee last year and so payed very close attention to his production. The most telling observation I had was this: When Holcombe was the starting QB, McGahee had a pretty good game. I could generally count on him for 100 yds and a TD or two on those days. When Losman was the starter, I was looking for another starting RB. McGahee does not get on the field on third downs, and Losman could not convert a third down, so McGahee could not develop any kind of consistent rhythm (this may have something to do with his poor ypc).

By most reports, there won't be anymore pressure from management to start Losman this year, and they will put the best man for the job at the QB position. If you are thinking about drafting McGahee, I would encourage you to pay close attention to the QB position battle.

(I also think that the loss of Moulds will actually hurt McGahee, since they won't have a veteran receiver to go to for a third down conversion).
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Postby ampant » Thu May 18, 2006 1:08 pm

Good arguments on both sides. However, I think with McGahee there are enough question marks flying around that I would probably not draft him unless he slipped to the 3rd round. He's defenitely not what I would consider a "safe investment."

I'd rather let my competitors risk their top draft picks than do it myself.
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Postby CC » Thu May 18, 2006 3:49 pm

michaelavelli wrote:Yeah I didn't expect everyone to just agree with my rankings. The point is these guys have some positive things you can say about them.

Julius Jones - you say TO will "get touches" and that this will hurt Julis Jones. This seems ass-backwards to me since having a game-breaking WR is a big boost for the offense, including the running game since it creates more opportunities for Julius. You go on to say that Kevin Jones is less talented for McGahee - I would say the same about Julius over Marion Barber.

Thomas Jones - McGahee was healther last year and Jones was better than him. You can go ahead and assume that Benson will be handed the starting job over 1500 all purpose, 10 TD RBif you'd like - people made that assumption last year too.

Droughns - the Browns were last in rushing TD's last year...the Browns responded by getting two of the best offensive lineman available in the off-season...as well as upgrading the passing game. What did the Bills do?

Warrick Dunn - yep, he's still over 30...he still has duckett...and he was stiiiiiiiill better than McGahee last year.

Kevin Jones - like I said, I'm not saying people have to agree with my rankings. Kevin Jones is certainly someone that a lot of people are down on...but the bottom line is Martz will make this offense BETTER. You cannot say that there is the same reason to think that in Buffalo....there has simply been no change.

The bigger point here isn't my rankings - it's why McGahee stays so high on everyone else's without providing any kind of sign that he'll be deserving of such a ranking. If the best thing you can say about McGahee is Cedric Benson is going to beat out Thomas Jones or Warrick Dunn is getting older, well, lol, good luck!


You basically chose to ignore all of my points and and looked at two of them and said they were irrelevant.
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Postby michaelavelli » Thu May 18, 2006 4:18 pm

Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:
michaelavelli wrote:Yeah I didn't expect everyone to just agree with my rankings. The point is these guys have some positive things you can say about them.

Julius Jones - you say TO will "get touches" and that this will hurt Julis Jones. This seems ass-backwards to me since having a game-breaking WR is a big boost for the offense, including the running game since it creates more opportunities for Julius. You go on to say that Kevin Jones is less talented for McGahee - I would say the same about Julius over Marion Barber.

Thomas Jones - McGahee was healther last year and Jones was better than him. You can go ahead and assume that Benson will be handed the starting job over 1500 all purpose, 10 TD RBif you'd like - people made that assumption last year too.

Droughns - the Browns were last in rushing TD's last year...the Browns responded by getting two of the best offensive lineman available in the off-season...as well as upgrading the passing game. What did the Bills do?

Warrick Dunn - yep, he's still over 30...he still has duckett...and he was stiiiiiiiill better than McGahee last year.

Kevin Jones - like I said, I'm not saying people have to agree with my rankings. Kevin Jones is certainly someone that a lot of people are down on...but the bottom line is Martz will make this offense BETTER. You cannot say that there is the same reason to think that in Buffalo....there has simply been no change.

The bigger point here isn't my rankings - it's why McGahee stays so high on everyone else's without providing any kind of sign that he'll be deserving of such a ranking. If the best thing you can say about McGahee is Cedric Benson is going to beat out Thomas Jones or Warrick Dunn is getting older, well, lol, good luck!


You basically chose to ignore all of my points and and looked at two of them and said they were irrelevant.


Perhaps you could put in bold which points you made that I ignored? I feel like I addressed almost everything you said.

Go through it if you want - but this is not really my point. I'm not here to discuss Reuben Droughns or TJ Duckett - I'm asking why everyone thinks that McGahee is going to improve.
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Postby Stelly » Thu May 18, 2006 4:42 pm

McGahee is going to be interesting to watch this year. He's a pretty talented RB, but his offense was offensive last year.

The Bills did upgrade their O-line in the off-season, so that should help a bit. The big question mark at QB is a big issue though. IF the passing game struggles, opposing Ds stuff 8 in the box, and shut him down. If you look at McGahee's #s last season, when the passing game was working, he had excellent games.

A big plus is that he gets ALL the carries. And Buffalo has said they want to involve him more in the passing game.

I'm guessing he'll be a mid 2nd round pick.
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Postby CC » Thu May 18, 2006 4:48 pm

michaelavelli wrote:
Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:
michaelavelli wrote:Yeah I didn't expect everyone to just agree with my rankings. The point is these guys have some positive things you can say about them.

Julius Jones - you say TO will "get touches" and that this will hurt Julis Jones. This seems ass-backwards to me since having a game-breaking WR is a big boost for the offense, including the running game since it creates more opportunities for Julius. You go on to say that Kevin Jones is less talented for McGahee - I would say the same about Julius over Marion Barber.

Thomas Jones - McGahee was healther last year and Jones was better than him. You can go ahead and assume that Benson will be handed the starting job over 1500 all purpose, 10 TD RBif you'd like - people made that assumption last year too.

Droughns - the Browns were last in rushing TD's last year...the Browns responded by getting two of the best offensive lineman available in the off-season...as well as upgrading the passing game. What did the Bills do?

Warrick Dunn - yep, he's still over 30...he still has duckett...and he was stiiiiiiiill better than McGahee last year.

Kevin Jones - like I said, I'm not saying people have to agree with my rankings. Kevin Jones is certainly someone that a lot of people are down on...but the bottom line is Martz will make this offense BETTER. You cannot say that there is the same reason to think that in Buffalo....there has simply been no change.

The bigger point here isn't my rankings - it's why McGahee stays so high on everyone else's without providing any kind of sign that he'll be deserving of such a ranking. If the best thing you can say about McGahee is Cedric Benson is going to beat out Thomas Jones or Warrick Dunn is getting older, well, lol, good luck!


You basically chose to ignore all of my points and and looked at two of them and said they were irrelevant.


Perhaps you could put in bold which points you made that I ignored? I feel like I addressed almost everything you said.

Go through it if you want - but this is not really my point. I'm not here to discuss Reuben Droughns or TJ Duckett - I'm asking why everyone thinks that McGahee is going to improve.


It's not so much that he is going to improve as it is he is a solid back that is guaranteed to get touches in Buffalo. He also has the potential to be great because he is so talented.

I like McGahee because he can be great and has very few questions surrounding him. He is talented, an unquestioned feature back, centrepiece of an offense, and has been relatively solid over the past two seasons.

He didn't have a great year last year on the field because of Mularkey being a crappy coach, poor offensive line and skill position play, and a pathetic Bills defense. Two of those problems have been partially addressed (Jauron better than Mularkey, upgrades on defense) and the offensive production depends on who starts at QB for Buffalo.
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Postby amishrakefight » Thu May 18, 2006 5:04 pm

wow, alot of angry guys on this topic. I like his chances with juron as coach. chicago never had a passing attack and could run the ball with worse backs than McGahee. I think Willis will be 1100-1300 yds, and 8-10 tds this year. if anyting they will run him to death!!!!!!!!!!
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Postby mysticphysh » Thu May 18, 2006 5:36 pm

I took mcgahee in the 2nd round in one of my leagues last year and he burned me.

BUT, his horrible season is because of the Bills offense sucked all the way around, namely the passing game. The year before, with a capable QB, he put up 1100 YRDS/ 13 TDs/ 4.0 ypc in just 10 games as a starter. Out goes Bledsoe, in comes JP Bustman and Kelley Backupcomb and he puts up 1200 yrds/ 5TDS / 3.8 in 15 games as a starter.

So did Mcgahee's talent drop off inbetween those years, or did the team around him? I'm guessing the latter, but I wont be drafting him unless he falls to the 3rd or later.
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