Willis McGahee - Overrated

[michaelavelli]

I took mcgahee in the 2nd round in one of my leagues last year and he burned me.

BUT, his horrible season is because of the Bills offense sucked all the way around, namely the passing game. The year before, with a capable QB, he put up 1100 YRDS/ 13 TDs/ 4.0 ypc in just 10 games as a starter. Out goes Bledsoe, in comes JP Bustman and Kelley Backupcomb and he puts up 1200 yrds/ 5TDS / 3.8 in 15 games as a starter.

So did Mcgahee's talent drop off inbetween those years, or did the team around him? I'm guessing the latter, but I wont be drafting him unless he falls to the 3rd or later.

I'm not saying that McGahee's lack of production lat year was completely his fault...certainly there were other factors...I'm just saying that most of those factors did not improve so I will not assume that he will.

[mysticphysh]

I took mcgahee in the 2nd round in one of my leagues last year and he burned me.

BUT, his horrible season is because of the Bills offense sucked all the way around, namely the passing game. The year before, with a capable QB, he put up 1100 YRDS/ 13 TDs/ 4.0 ypc in just 10 games as a starter. Out goes Bledsoe, in comes JP Bustman and Kelley Backupcomb and he puts up 1200 yrds/ 5TDS / 3.8 in 15 games as a starter.

So did Mcgahee's talent drop off inbetween those years, or did the team around him? I'm guessing the latter, but I wont be drafting him unless he falls to the 3rd or later.

I'm not saying that McGahee's lack of production lat year was completely his fault...certainly there were other factors...I'm just saying that most of those factors did not improve so I will not assume that he will.

Oh I agree! Which is why I said I wont take him unless he falls to the 3rd. Unless the Bills improve, he won't be able to improve.

[Kensat30]

A big difference between McGahee 04 and McGahee 05 was the defense. In 04, Buffalo was #2 in team defense. In 05, they were #29. A great defense gives you a short field. A short field gives you RZ runs for your RB.

Takeo Spikes is back. They drafted 2 defensive guys in Rd 1 (even if they were reaches). The defense may not be #2, but even if it is mediocre, it helps McGahee a lot.

Losman is still terrible, but the good news is there's not much room to regress!

In 2004, Buffalo was the #2 fantasy defense as a result of TEN D/ST touchdowns. 10 TDS!! That ain't happening again.

Your comment is completely irrelavent. In 2004 they allowed the second least yards/game, they were 6th in sacks, and were 8th in points/game. No matter what they finished in fantasy, they had a VERY GOOD defense that year. Last year everyone knows how bad the Bears offense was as a whole, and how horrific their passing attack was, but their running game still produced. All 3 running backs combined they finished with 1998 yards. I think McGahee was "overrated" last year because you can see what a good defense, and anemic passing game did for the bears last year. A very good defense will do wonders for a running game.

I guess 4 points per game scored by a defense and special teams unit doesn't do much to improve overall effectiveness.

But do you consider that everytime the D scores, the opponent is back on his own ~20 yardline? How many times did a D/ST score put Buffalo in the lead in 2004? How much does having the lead effect the outcome of a game, especially when it happens late in the game? The other offense's playcalling has to be adjusted after a D/ST score. The tempo of their game must increase leading to increased mistakes and penalties. The morale of the offensive unit, after an instantaneous 7 point deficit, is low while the D's is sky high.

As the time on the clock grows shorter, that one D/ST touchdown per game is going to cause the offense to take more chances to quickly move into scoring position. Buffalo was 6th in sacks? Maybe it was because opposing offenses were forced into "must-pass" situations late in games perhaps? 8th in points per game? Hasn't this whole debate been about the D/ST scoring? How is an offense supposed to score a lot of points when they keep getting knocked back to their own 20 yardline after having an offensive/special teams meltdown? Figure that the outcomes of most NFL games today are less than what the Buffalo D was scoring in 2004... That's a recipe for success that you just don't see very often. You cannot predict any given defense to score a lot of touchdowns with any accuracy, it's like ranking kickers. Just ask the people who drafted Buffalo/Baltimore early last year.

Buffalo D/ST 2004- 10 TDs
Buffalo D/ST 2005- 2 TDs

Ravens D/ST 2004- 7 TDs
Ravens D/ST 2005- 1 TD

Bears D/ST 2004 - 6 TDs
Bears D/ST 2005- 6 TDs

[TheFranchise]

I was unfortunate enough to draft McGahee last year and so payed very close attention to his production. The most telling observation I had was this: When Holcombe was the starting QB, McGahee had a pretty good game. I could generally count on him for 100 yds and a TD or two on those days. When Losman was the starter, I was looking for another starting RB.

I wasn't going to comment on this issue, being a Bills fan, but I believe your most telling observation was a bit blurred. McGahee had (3) 100 yd games with Holcombe (Two of those against the 29th ranked run defense of the NYJ's) & (2) with Losman. Both started (8) games last year (Please don't tell me it was 9 to 7, Holcombe started the KC game in Week 10... he only had 5 attempts). I am not a Losman fan, please don't misunderstand me, but his performance did not effect McGahee's production any more than Holcombe's did. The underlining issue is the Bills have a collection of backup QB's and a poor OL. McGahee has all the talent, but he will never be better than the 10 gentlemen that line up with him every Sunday.

Considering that I did chime in, I will give my opinion as to the original post. I don't believe McGahee is overated, because of his talent... but I do believe he is overvalued considering the team he plays for. I still rank him in the top 15 RB's, but I won't draft him.

Go Bills.

[Dan Lambskin]

i currently have him as my #12 RB, but he'll likely fall below that closer to draft day. i really want no part of him this year. their line is garbage and JP Lossman is a joke, and with Moulds gone they dont even have a decent #2 WR. Double Evans and stack the line against McGahee...doesnt bode too well for him