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Yahoo polls have LT as undisputed king

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Postby terpfan » Sun May 21, 2006 1:30 am

D3C4K wrote:
terpfan wrote:I have LT #1 overall for these reasons.

1. I think having Phillip Rivers at QB will make the Chargers rely on LT more, and also get him more dump off catches out of the backfield.
2. Alexander may be hurt by the departure of Steve Hutchinson.
3. Larry Johnson has not completed a whole season yet, and he loses Tony Richardson and Al Saunders.

Seems to me that Tomlinson is the safest pick overall. You are pretty much gauranteed elite numbers from him, no questions asked. That's what I want from the #1 pick.


I had LT last year, and LJ each of the last 2 years, and to me Tomlinson is probably the least guaranteed of the three over the course of a full season. LT may be the most talented of the three, but he doesn't face St. Louis, San Francisco and Arizona twice like Alexander, and the lowest fantasy output LJ's put up in any game he's started is just under 18 points (17.8, Week 10 against Buffalo last year). If that isn't guaranteed, I don't know what is. In no way will I sit here and bash LT, as that would be ridiculous. Even without Brees, he'll be a top performer, especially with an easier schedule. But his line isn't as good as KC's or Seattle (Even without Hutch), and in addition to getting less yards as a result, he also takes a pounding, which has hindered his performance a bit each of the past two years (Middle of 2004, end of 2005). Once again, it's splitting hairs, but I never had LJ give me 1.8 points in a starting role. As far as coaching goes, Curtis Martin put up 1,942 all-purpose yards along with 14 tds and won the rushing title over Shaun Alexander with Herm Edwards 2 years ago (I had Martin then as well), and anyone with LJ last year remembers screaming at Vermeil to give LJ the ball, rather than keep passing to Samie Parker only to have the ball bounce off his face. Losing Saunders didn't help, but Vermeil had something against LJ (Which Larry referred to on "Quite Frankly" the other day), and if anything the coaching change should be a good thing, at least for LJ's fantasy owners. Just my 2 cents.

Well, LJ just masacred defenses last year. If you are expecting that pace to continue than by all means take him #1. I think most people question his ability to do that over a whole season though. I do think you make a good point about Alexander's schedule. That is certainly an advantage that he has. But really Oakland, KC, and Denver isnt all that tough either...

And when I said safe about LT, I meant overall, not necessarily weak to weak. You make some good points though.

I just hope I am in the top 3 to have the decision to make. B-)
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Postby D3C4K » Sun May 21, 2006 1:51 am

terpfan wrote:
D3C4K wrote:
terpfan wrote:I have LT #1 overall for these reasons.

1. I think having Phillip Rivers at QB will make the Chargers rely on LT more, and also get him more dump off catches out of the backfield.
2. Alexander may be hurt by the departure of Steve Hutchinson.
3. Larry Johnson has not completed a whole season yet, and he loses Tony Richardson and Al Saunders.

Seems to me that Tomlinson is the safest pick overall. You are pretty much gauranteed elite numbers from him, no questions asked. That's what I want from the #1 pick.


I had LT last year, and LJ each of the last 2 years, and to me Tomlinson is probably the least guaranteed of the three over the course of a full season. LT may be the most talented of the three, but he doesn't face St. Louis, San Francisco and Arizona twice like Alexander, and the lowest fantasy output LJ's put up in any game he's started is just under 18 points (17.8, Week 10 against Buffalo last year). If that isn't guaranteed, I don't know what is. In no way will I sit here and bash LT, as that would be ridiculous. Even without Brees, he'll be a top performer, especially with an easier schedule. But his line isn't as good as KC's or Seattle (Even without Hutch), and in addition to getting less yards as a result, he also takes a pounding, which has hindered his performance a bit each of the past two years (Middle of 2004, end of 2005). Once again, it's splitting hairs, but I never had LJ give me 1.8 points in a starting role. As far as coaching goes, Curtis Martin put up 1,942 all-purpose yards along with 14 tds and won the rushing title over Shaun Alexander with Herm Edwards 2 years ago (I had Martin then as well), and anyone with LJ last year remembers screaming at Vermeil to give LJ the ball, rather than keep passing to Samie Parker only to have the ball bounce off his face. Losing Saunders didn't help, but Vermeil had something against LJ (Which Larry referred to on "Quite Frankly" the other day), and if anything the coaching change should be a good thing, at least for LJ's fantasy owners. Just my 2 cents.

Well, LJ just masacred defenses last year. If you are expecting that pace to continue than by all means take him #1. I think most people question his ability to do that over a whole season though. I do think you make a good point about Alexander's schedule. That is certainly an advantage that he has. But really Oakland, KC, and Denver isnt all that tough either...

And when I said safe about LT, I meant overall, not necessarily weak to weak. You make some good points though.

I just hope I am in the top 3 to have the decision to make. B-)


Amen to that. A top 3 pick makes a world of difference. Just so you know, Denver was 2nd in the league in rushing yards allowed, and KC was 7th (Denver held LT to 52 yards in week 2, and KC held him to 69 and 47 yards in their two meetings. Denver also held LJ to 13 yards and a lost fumble on 8 carries in week 3 last year). It can be tricky determining which defense is good at what at times, as a team can have a horrid run D yet have three Pro-Bowlers in the secondary, lol. But yeah, I understand feeling more comfortable with LT. He is LT, after all ;-D.
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Postby ampant » Sun May 21, 2006 2:11 am

D3C4K wrote: Denver also held LJ to 13 yards and a lost fumble on 8 carries in week 3 last year.


Yeah dude, but he was the backup then. Hell, LT was held to 7 yards on 18 attempt by Philly last year. You are going to draw conclusions based on 8 carries? Point is, even when he was a backup, he was the only backup RB in the league that people considered starting. And when he became the starter, he ran over everybody, and was head and shoulders above every other RB in terms of yardage and consistency, regardless of opponent.

When he met Denver again, they (I believe they were the #1 rush defense in the league at that point, who had not allowed a 100 yard rusher ALL SEASON) "held" him to 140 yards and 2 TDs. And this was when the chips were down, he was the starter, and they needed to win to keep the playoff hopes alive. NY was #5 or 6 rush D when he ran them over, DAL was #10, and SD was #3 when he crushed them.

Every game as a starter he has had 100 yards. Tomlinson had 11 games last year where he didn't break the century mark. So who is more consistent?

Look, Tomlinson's a stud, and I'd be glad to have him on my FF team. But when you factor in age, health, coaching, QBs, youth, and recent performance, LJ gets the nod IMO.
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Postby terpfan » Sun May 21, 2006 2:30 am

ampant wrote:Look, Tomlinson's a stud, and I'd be glad to have him on my FF team. But when you factor in age, health, coaching, QBs, youth, and recent performance, LJ gets the nod IMO.

See, I think those factors dont necessarily help LJ's cause. They are the same age (26). LT has taken more pounding over the years, but he has also proven to be pretty durable, whereas we really dont know how well LJ would hold up over a whole season. For coaching, you know Schott is going to pound the ball, but in Kc I dont think losing Saundrs is going to help any. I dont think QBs favor LJ in the long run... Trent Green is on his way out, while Rivers would (hopefully) only be getting better. Youth is the same thing as age right? ;-) And as far as "recent performance" goes, are you saying that half of a season (albeit a dominant one) outweighs the monster numbers LT has put up the last 4 years?

Just playing devils advocate. I honestly think the choice comes down to preferance. Do you want to go for the slightly less proven, home run possibility with LJ, or the dependable stud with LT. You can definately make a good case either way.
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Postby D3C4K » Sun May 21, 2006 3:08 pm

ampant wrote:
D3C4K wrote: Denver also held LJ to 13 yards and a lost fumble on 8 carries in week 3 last year.


Yeah dude, but he was the backup then. Hell, LT was held to 7 yards on 18 attempt by Philly last year. You are going to draw conclusions based on 8 carries? Point is, even when he was a backup, he was the only backup RB in the league that people considered starting. And when he became the starter, he ran over everybody, and was head and shoulders above every other RB in terms of yardage and consistency, regardless of opponent.

When he met Denver again, they (I believe they were the #1 rush defense in the league at that point, who had not allowed a 100 yard rusher ALL SEASON) "held" him to 140 yards and 2 TDs. And this was when the chips were down, he was the starter, and they needed to win to keep the playoff hopes alive. NY was #5 or 6 rush D when he ran them over, DAL was #10, and SD was #3 when he crushed them.

Every game as a starter he has had 100 yards. Tomlinson had 11 games last year where he didn't break the century mark. So who is more consistent?

Look, Tomlinson's a stud, and I'd be glad to have him on my FF team. But when you factor in age, health, coaching, QBs, youth, and recent performance, LJ gets the nod IMO.


Jesus Christ man, you're screwing up my argument FOR Larry Johnson! I'm going to assume you just came in and read the last page, because otherwise that post made no sense. Here, I'll link my earlier post (From the first page) here:

I had LT last year, and LJ each of the last 2 years, and to me Tomlinson is probably the least guaranteed of the three over the course of a full season. LT may be the most talented of the three, but he doesn't face St. Louis, San Francisco and Arizona twice like Alexander, and the lowest fantasy output LJ's put up in any game he's started is just under 18 points (17.8, Week 10 against Buffalo last year). If that isn't guaranteed, I don't know what is. In no way will I sit here and bash LT, as that would be ridiculous. Even without Brees, he'll be a top performer, especially with an easier schedule. But his line isn't as good as KC's or Seattle (Even without Hutch), and in addition to getting less yards as a result, he also takes a pounding, which has hindered his performance a bit each of the past two years (Middle of 2004, end of 2005). Once again, it's splitting hairs, but I never had LJ give me 1.8 points in a starting role. As far as coaching goes, Curtis Martin put up 1,942 all-purpose yards along with 14 tds and won the rushing title over Shaun Alexander with Herm Edwards 2 years ago (I had Martin then as well), and anyone with LJ last year remembers screaming at Vermeil to give LJ the ball, rather than keep passing to Samie Parker only to have the ball bounce off his face. Losing Saunders didn't help, but Vermeil had something against LJ (Which Larry referred to on "Quite Frankly" the other day), and if anything the coaching change should be a good thing, at least for LJ's fantasy owners. Just my 2 cents.


Here, I'll throw in another pro-LJ post of mine:

I have to believe it's mainly a dynasty concern, as any concerns for next season would be silly. Every player has risks, and LJ carries less risk than 95% of the players in the league. How is Alexander going to fare without Hutch? How about LT without Brees, with a shaky line and a history of nagging injuries that slow his production around fantasy playoff time? How will Edge fare with a new offense and a weak o-line in Arizona? How's Manning going to do with a weaker running game? How will Palmer bounce back from injury? How good can Brees be in NO? Is Deuce McAllister splitting carries with Bush? If he does, how much will that hurt Horn and Stallworth's production? Can Culpepper prosper in Miami? Can Ronnie Brown carry a full load for the Dolphins? How about Cadillac Williams, can he stay consistent and avoid injury this year? How will McNabb do without TO? Will TO implode in Dallas? What about Randy Moss, will his numbers suffer with Brooks at the helm? Can Steve Smith continue his dominance with Keyshawn taking away some looks, all without reinjuring his ankle? Can Boldin stay healthy? Will Rivers hurt Antonio Gates production in SD? Will Gonzo bounce back in KC? Can Heap become a top Tight End with McNair? The questions go on and on. That's part of the fun of fantasy football, to take these factors into consideration, and make the right decisions and watch your team succeed because you made the right calls. Having said that, everyone has questions, simple as that. I think it's funny that with all the second-guessing people on these boards are doing concerning the real GMs and their drafts, they still make the same mistake of overthinking things and turning potentially great pickups into fatal errors, all to completely avoid risk. You can't completely avoid risk, you can only scale it back it bit. How about this: to give people a better idea of the top 3 picks should be, I'll take every game LJ has started the last two years (14 games - the last 9 of 2005, plus the last 5 of 2004), and compare them with the best 9 LT and SA games of 2005, plus the best 5 of each from 2004:

LaDanian Tomlinson
2005 (Also had a couple of td passes)
220 Total Yards (tyds), 3 TDs (tds)
168 tyds, 2 tds
179 tyds, 2 tds
153 tyds, 4 tds
213 tyds, 3 tds
96 tyds, 1 td
130 tyds, 1 td
89 tyds, 1 td
110 tyds, 0 tds

2004
160 tyds, 1 td
173 tyds, 1 td
130 tyds, 2 tds
150 tyds, 1 td
106 tyds, 2 tds

Average: - 148.3 tyds, 1.71 tds per game

Shaun Alexander
2005
140 tyds, 4 tds
142 tyds, 4 tds
174 tyds, 3 tds
145 tyds, 3 tds
173 tyds, 2 tds
135 tyds, 2 tds
122 tyds, 2 tds
172 tyds, 1 td
155 tyds, 1 td

2004
166 tyds, 3 tds
208 tyds, 2 tds
160 tyds, 2 tds
154 tyds, 3 tds
154 tyds, 1 td

Average - 157.1 tyds, 2.36 tds per game

Larry Johnson
2005
155 tyds, 2 tds
178 tyds, 0 tds
217 tyds, 2 tds
172 tyds, 1 td
149 tyds, 2 tds
171 tyds, 3 tds
184 tyds, 2 tds
179 tyds, 2 tds
222 tyds, 3 tds

2004
174 tyds, 2 tds
123 tyds, 2 tds
151 tyds, 2 tds
112 tyds, 2 tds
161 tyds, 2 tds

Average - 167.7 tyds, 1.93 tds per game

That's how every game Larry Johnson has started compares to the very best games of the 2 rbs that have consistently been head and shoulders above the rest. I have some business to tend to, so I'll leave it at that and let the numbers speak for themselves.


Obviously LJ was a backup (Which is why I included the "On 8 carries" part), I was just pointing out that Denver and KC's run defense were actually pretty good (Which you helped point out in your post, thanks ;-D ). If there was anyone on this board that defends LJ, it's me. I'm not "drawing conclusions" on anything, and if you read my earlier post you'd know that I actually referenced LT's 18 yards against Philly to argue for LJ. There's no need to bring up age, health, coaching, QBs, youth and recent performance, because that's works in defense of both LT and LJ. They're both young, tough, relatively healthy, have great coaches that focus on the offensive run game, and both players have had great recent success. To use those factors in predicting which one will have a better year will probably backfire, as you'd really have to nitpick with weak arguments using that criteria. IMO, the best way to judge in this situation is to look at the respective downsides of each rb (Tomlinson, Alexander, and Johnson), for the simple fact that everyone knows their upsides, as they're all outstanding (Which is why there're the consensus top 3 picks). Again, you can't go wrong either way, but if you have to pick just one, LJ's lowest production is 18 fantasy points (In a typical non-reception league). Even if you're worried about him not having played a full season, here's a little background for anyone that's started for KC since 2003:

1st 11 games in 2004

Priest Holmes
149 tyds, 3 tds
82 tyds, 1 td
134 tyds, 0 tds
125 tyds, 2 tds
122 tyds, 1 td
180 tyds, 4 tds (1st half vs. ATL)
225 tyds, 3 tds
62 tyds, 1 td (Got injured)

Derrick Blaylock
(136 tyds, 4 tds in 2nd half vs. ATL)
224 tds, 1 td
91 tyds, 0 tds
78 tyds, 2 tds (split with LJ, who had 50 tyds and 1 td)

So that's the overall fantasy performance for featured backs in a KC offense, vs. defenses at any strength. If you want to look further back, you can look at 2003, when Priest first broke the td record:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/gamelog?statsId=4047&year=2003

I just cut-and-pasted that from one of my earlier posts. Even if he were to get injured, chances are if you snag his backup (whether it be Priest, Quentin Griffin or Michael Bennett) he'll probably be a top 5 rb. I haven't seen anyone with KC's run game on their fantasy team not dominate since 2003, but I have seen people sputter with LT and even Alexander at times (Though not as much last year - SA had one game with 73 yards, 0 tds and another with 61 yards, 0 tds, but he killed every other game). Once again, you can't go wrong with either of these guys, I'm just presenting an argument to why LJ should go #1, while rooting against the Pistons and waiting for the next episode of "The Sopranos" (Though no "Entourage" today, what's up with that? :-t )
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Postby giants! » Sun May 21, 2006 3:46 pm

terpfan wrote:I have LT #1 overall for these reasons.

1. I think having Phillip Rivers at QB will make the Chargers rely on LT more, and also get him more dump off catches out of the backfield.


That was exactly what did Willis McGahee in last year. The Chargers have no real wide recievers so teams will crowd the box against lt and double team gates and make the recievers amd Phillip Rivers beat them. Not to say that LT and Rivers are the same as McGahee and Losman but the situations parallel each other. I would probably take LJ first due to Herman Edwards and his insitance on getting the ball to LJ 25+ times a game, but I dont think taking LT or SA first is a bad choice.
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Postby BadgerBengal » Sun May 21, 2006 4:50 pm

If you look at LT's numbers last year with Breeze except for a few games they were not that impressive. Without Breeze I dont see LT putting up the great numbers from the past. LJ on the other hand may break the single season rushing record in my opinion. LJ is my undisputed no. 1 pick.
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Postby maddog60 » Sun May 21, 2006 4:57 pm

BadgerBengal wrote: Without Breeze I dont see LT putting up the great numbers from the past.


The year before Brees got good, LT led all RBs in total yards from scrimmage, and had his best season. So, yes, he's done very well without any QB to threaten defenses before. Rivers is not that huge of a concern for LT's fantasy value.
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Re: Riiiight

Postby Twisted Sister » Mon May 22, 2006 8:09 am

DraftDodger wrote:>>>
im confident Rivers wont be a total bust
<<<

How can you have confidence in a guy who's had 30 pass attempts in the NFL?

He doesn't even have any WRs.

Sorry, Rivers has had close to zero playing time, and this will be like a rookie year for him. He'll make mistakes, and that will take the ball out of Tomlinson's hands.

LT2 will be third at best. Realistically he might drop to 6th or 7th in RB fantasy points. I'd feel a lot safer with Edge, Portis, or Tiki (though I wouldn't pass on LT2 for any of them.)


All I have to say - Tiki Barber in Eli's first 2 years. Eli was HORRIBLE his rookie season... and Tiki Barber was $$$$$$$.

Eli was mediocre 2nd season, and Tiki was $$$$$$$

The elite backs will produce, don't overthink the QB situation.

LT is my #1... he is PROVEN year-in and year-out... through good QB play and bad.

IMO - he is also the safest pick of the three because of his multi-faceted game play (running, receiving, and occassional passing).
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Postby footballchick23 » Mon May 22, 2006 10:12 am

maddog60 wrote:
BadgerBengal wrote: Without Breeze I dont see LT putting up the great numbers from the past.


The year before Brees got good, LT led all RBs in total yards from scrimmage, and had his best season. So, yes, he's done very well without any QB to threaten defenses before. Rivers is not that huge of a concern for LT's fantasy value.


Finally someone pointed this out! LT has done fine with little to no support (Brees choking, revolving door of O-Linemen, no WR's). I don't think Brees departure will have as big of an effect as everyone thinks.

That being said, any of the 3 will be stellar picks, IMO.
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