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The Standard Deviation as an Important FF Statistic?

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Postby Twisted Sister » Thu Jun 15, 2006 10:37 am

Paladyr wrote:I use it when I'm deciding between to players I think are close in value... so I see standard deviation as an extra tool when comparing two players.

I'm still looking for a way to import all the stats every week so that I can write queries and analyze the info. I might try to figure out an easy way to do it this year.


Yes, the datapull is 90% of the work... all the fun stuff happens when you have a good dataset.
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Postby PACKman1144 » Thu Jun 15, 2006 2:19 pm

I like the idea Dude. I took AP Stat this year, aced it, and often thought of ways to apply it to ff. Good call here, and it show's consistency based on numbers, i like that, good call.
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Postby houstonherdfan » Thu Jun 15, 2006 8:19 pm

Mercer Boy wrote:I'd still rather have a RB that gets me 10-15 points each week than have one that gets 30 one week and 5 the next. Same thing goes for QB's and WR's with different numbers thrown in (especially WR because they are as inconsistent as hell). :-P

You still may not win if your guy gets 30 if the other guy has a randomly awesome week...whereas you should win all the "close ones" if all of your players score well every week...I have at least 3-4 (if not more) games a year decided by 5 points or less.

Those wins/losses add up; I know...they killed me in two leagues last year. I counted at least 7 times where I was either the second highest scoring player going against the top scorer for the week or where I had the highest score of all the losing teams. Scheduling is luck of the draw, I know.

(Note that I'm not saying I wouldn't take a superstar RB with a top pick...they bust from time to time, but they help your team win more often than not. But, when you get into the "grey area" of players with similar ability, I want the consistent guy. ;-D)


Perfect. Couldn't come up with a better response if I tried.
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Postby Infidel » Thu Jun 15, 2006 10:08 pm

As I have said before, it's "another arrow in the quiver" but a secondary factor to many other factors such as all the changes that go on from year to year.

That said, I think we all already use the Stdev whether we know it or not when we draft. The best example I can think of is C Dillon when he was with the BungHoles and they earned the nickname. His stats were the most skewed of anyone I have ever seen. Top 5-8 RB year in year out. But, he would always have ~2 games per year where he would go for ~200 yds rushing and 2-3 TD's. No one ever wanted him on their FF team because he would win you 2 games and kill you the rest of the season.

I am too lazy and busy to crunch the #'s but if you look at Dillon you point that Stdev will be proven. But again, it's something that we knowingly or not were already using. Reducing it to numbers is just another arrow.
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Postby Pete123444 » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:32 am

houstonherdfan wrote:
Mercer Boy wrote:I'd still rather have a RB that gets me 10-15 points each week than have one that gets 30 one week and 5 the next. Same thing goes for QB's and WR's with different numbers thrown in (especially WR because they are as inconsistent as hell). :-P


If I had 3 RB's that were those 30-5 guys and you had 3 RB's that were 10-15 "consistent" guys*, I'd outscore you at least 67% of the time. And if I were able to play the matchups well, that percentage would go up! I'll take those 30-5 guys every time.

*example considering 2 starting RB's
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Postby Mercer Boy » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:59 am

Guess we'll agree to disagree...to me, there's nothing more frustrating than HAVING to have a guy carry my entire team every week, and when that guy busts, I lose. I'd rather have 6 skill players, K and DEF that always get the same amount of points than hope that one of my guy will get me 40% of my points. :-/

All I know is that I generally win more than I lose...my teams get beat 80% of the time by:

a) getting out-TD'ed by 2-3 (TD's are luck)
b) random crazy week from some crap guy on the other team (which could either be luck or good matchup).
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Postby onnestabe » Fri Jun 16, 2006 8:50 am

Pete123444 wrote:
houstonherdfan wrote:
Mercer Boy wrote:I'd still rather have a RB that gets me 10-15 points each week than have one that gets 30 one week and 5 the next. Same thing goes for QB's and WR's with different numbers thrown in (especially WR because they are as inconsistent as hell). :-P


If I had 3 RB's that were those 30-5 guys and you had 3 RB's that were 10-15 "consistent" guys*, I'd outscore you at least 67% of the time. And if I were able to play the matchups well, that percentage would go up! I'll take those 30-5 guys every time.

*example considering 2 starting RB's


In what draft are you going to get three 30-5 RBs? 30-5 RBs go early because they have the ability to score 30 points in a game. It's more likely that you will end up with one 30-5 guy, and two 15-5 guys versus Mercer's two or three 10-15 guys (It would be very reasonable to think you could get Rudi Johnson, Reuben Droughns, and Ron Dayne on your team).

And it's not like 30-5 means they will score 30 points half the time and 5 points half the time. It's more like they have 4-5 30 point games per season, and the rest are duds. I doubt that type of scoring profile would give you the 67% win rate you are talking about.
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Postby bolkonsky » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:44 pm

Good post, everyone.

I would direct critics of StDev to the earlier posts regarding its applicability. Knowledge, when used correctly, is seldom useless...I, for one, would be very interested to see who produced consistent numbers as I subscribe to the theory that if you put up 90-100 almost every week you will probably have a good year.

On that note, I think it is important to recognize personal differences when it comes to an individual's propensity to select the boom or bust player. I almost never select that guy. That is not what makes FF fun for me....even in cases where I might go 6-8 with my approach, I can live with that, whereas I would kick myself for going 6-8 because my guys were either "on" or "off".
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Postby The_Dude » Fri Jun 16, 2006 5:51 pm

Ok... here's the RBs... give me a little bit and I'll write up some commentary...

Image

So, how to read this spreadsheet...

avg1: average total yardage
stdev1:standard deviation of yardage
avg2 and stdev2 are averages and standard deviations computed for some special circumstances - notably Edge and Rudi getting breaks late in the season, and LJ becoming the starter.

avgfp1: average fantasy points computed using 10 yds = 1 pt, tds=6 and fractional points
stdevfp1: standard deviation of fantasy points
avgfp2 and stdevfp2 are the same logic as avg2 and stdev2.


Running commentary, in no logical order...

*I know there's some downside to Tiki because of mileage/age, but statistically, he belongs alongside the top 3 backs and bests all of them in standard deviation (except for LJ as a starter, whose numbers were RIDICULOUS).

*We got stuck on Rudi for a bit, but check out Edge's numbers for both fantasy points and yardage averages/std. deviations. Question remains, can he stay consistent in Arizona.

*Domanick Davis may be an oversight in this year's draft. He was injured a lot last year, but when he played, he put up CONSISTENT top 10 numbers

It takes a bit of time to run all of this, so I'll be doing the positions as I get a free hour here and there this weekend...

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Postby smackthefirst » Fri Jun 16, 2006 7:04 pm

No thoughts here, just the numbers. Thoughts in post below.

QB
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RB
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WR
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