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Anyone else thinking WR/WR this year?

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Anyone else thinking WR/WR this year?

Postby Kensat30 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 3:49 pm

I'm starting to entertain the idea of going WR/WR in redrafts this year if I don't land high pick. As I do more mocksdrafts and begin to seriously evaluate my player rankings, I'm realizing that there are certain values and voids in value that would support a WR/WR strategy. The main catch with this strategy is that you have to know which WRs to target, you have to know which RBs to target, and you have to know when to find the undervalued RBs in the middle rounds.


My main points:

#1- Outside a very limited set of RBs, I don't see many "sure-thing" type RBs available in the first two rounds. WR/WR is based on having a middle or late round redraft position. With the 6th-12th picks, I think you are most likely getting your choice of WR1 and WR2 overall, and more importantly, I think you are very likely to land a solid RB1/2 punch in the third and fourth. In fact, some of my more highly rated RBs are regularly falling into the 3rd round or later.

#2- To expand on point #1, I'm seeing RBs in the 3rd- 4th, even 7th+ rounds that I can think I can platoon to produce similar or better numbers than RBs drafted in rounds 1-2 this year. Kevin Jones is sometimes falling into the 5th round or later, while Ronnie Brown goes in the 1st. Why is that? Jamal Lewis goes in the third when he was ranked as high as the #4 overall RB last year? Ron Dayne falls into the 8th+ round even though he will most likely fill the void of #10 RB Mike Anderson. I feel that unlike most years, there are a lot more RBs being overlooked in the mid-rounds that can be effective starters, even studs in most formats. And with the ever present danger of RB injury, I think that this strategy that forces you to draft RB in bulk to find starters can even be safer than a standard RB early strategy when injuries or multiple injuries pop up. Think of Deuce/Julius owners last year.

#3- There seems to be a consensus on the top8 WRs in the draft: Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison. While they may seem more plentiful than in most years, I feel that there are only 5 or 6 surething stud WRs this year, and they can pose a distinct advantage over the field if you are lining up two of them every week. Make a combo out of Smith, Holt, CJ, Harrison, and TO and you are rock soild. Moss in the 3rd round is also a gimme pick. I would not rule out going WR-WR-WR in start 3-WR leagues if this was the case... Darrell Jackson and Plaxico Burress fill out my "WR#1" tier with the remaining Fitzgerald and Boldin.

#4- Outside of one or two players, I absolutely do NOT like the 4th-8th round WRs this year. All the WRs I want to take my chances on do not fall in this range and I see myself focusing mostly RB, QB, and TE in these rounds no matter how my first few rounds went. The older vets WRs I tend to be draft fall into late-middle, if not double digit rounds (ie Rod Smith/Isaac Bruce/Keenan McCardell/etc.). And the young inexperienced and overlooked players also tend to fall into the late middle and double digit rounds(Michael Clayton/Ernest Wilford/Donte Stallworth). Since I will only take 1 QB and 1 TE early, that means I'm picking anywhere from around 3-5 RBS in the 4th-9th rounds.. and I'm thinking that the majority of these RBs have the potential to equal the value of some 1st round picks, which is unusual to say the least.

Example "gimme" draft out of the 6 spot:

1.06- Steve Smith
2.07- Terrell Owens
3.06- Jamal Lewis
4.07- Kevin Jones
5.06- Tony Gonzalez
6.07- Ahman Green
7.07- Marc Bulger
8.06- Cedric Benson
9.07- Ron Dayne
10.06- Isaac Bruce
11.07- Michael Clayton
12.06- Brett Favre
13.07- Ernest Wilford
14.06- Lendale White
15.07- Atlanta D
16.06- Jeff Wilkins


Thoughts?
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Postby J2thez929 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 3:55 pm

I like it a lot Kensat! Unless you get a top 6 or so pick then that strategy could work out nicely. On the flipside, if you go WR-WR and the majority go RB-RB, out a standard 12 team draft you might end up with Warrick Dunn as your #1 back. No offense to Mr. Dunn, he is a hell of a player, but I wouldn't feel comfortable having him as #1 back for the upcoming season. But, if you are lucky enough to land a solid RB in the 3rd then this strategy could work out nicely.

Nice, well thought out post Kensat ;-D
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Postby steelerfan513 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:15 pm

the only way i would do this is if i were in a redraft, i had the 12th overall pick, and none of the top 11 running backs fell to me (LT, LJ, SA, Portis, Edge, Jackson, Ronnie, Caddy, Rudi, Lamont, Tiki). otherwise, i would take at least one running back, probably two.
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Postby DelhommesFan1 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:30 pm

again...here we go on the overvalue of rbs. Your all over it kenset. I went 3 straight wr's in my keeper league here in the cafe and was told i was the dumbest thing walking. The thing i look at is. rbs always get hurt. If your play the waivers smart, you can pick up a top 10 rb off the waivers throughout the season. Plus not every rb that is projected to be a top 20 player (first 2 rounds) will live up to those expectations. Grabbing a rb in the 3rd is just was good as a late 2nd rounder. I have used this wr/wr strategy, if you are a good judge of late rb talent...its gold
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Postby CC » Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:34 pm

1.06- Steve Smith
2.07- Terrell Owens
3.06- Jamal Lewis
4.07- Kevin Jones
5.06- Tony Gonzalez
6.07- Ahman Green
7.07- Marc Bulger
8.06- Cedric Benson
9.07- Ron Dayne
10.06- Isaac Bruce
11.07- Michael Clayton
12.06- Brett Favre
13.07- Ernest Wilford
14.06- Lendale White
15.07- Atlanta D
16.06- Jeff Wilkins


That looks like wishful thinking to me. You would be a tad lucky to get TO that late in the 2nd, same goes for J-Lew and KJ in the 3rd and 4th. Benson, Ahman, Michael Clayton, and Lendale will all go at least a round higher than you have them projected and you would be lucky to nab Tony G and Dayne at those spots.
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This si such a great idea...

Postby FFCoppola » Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:47 pm

...and I hope everyone else in all my leagues follows this strategy.

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Postby Warhawk » Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:57 pm

In several 10-team mocks that I've done, I've taken Steve Smith/Terrell Owens 1/2 when I had the 9th or 10th pick.

I just don't like the third tier RBs this year.
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Sat Jun 17, 2006 5:02 pm

I like it Kensat, but I don't know about Benson falling that low. He could be gone much earlier, especially with the holdout talks looming. I know that was just an example though..I like the idea of the strategy though. 2 RBs that will be undervalued and 2 of the top WR. ;-D
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Re: Anyone else thinking WR/WR this year?

Postby boojumsnark25 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 5:11 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
1.06- Steve Smith
2.07- Terrell Owens
3.06- Jamal Lewis
4.07- Kevin Jones
5.06- Tony Gonzalez
6.07- Ahman Green
7.07- Marc Bulger
8.06- Cedric Benson
9.07- Ron Dayne
10.06- Isaac Bruce
11.07- Michael Clayton
12.06- Brett Favre
13.07- Ernest Wilford
14.06- Lendale White
15.07- Atlanta D
16.06- Jeff Wilkins


Not gonna happen...
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Postby Kensat30 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 5:17 pm

Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:
1.06- Steve Smith
2.07- Terrell Owens
3.06- Jamal Lewis
4.07- Kevin Jones
5.06- Tony Gonzalez
6.07- Ahman Green
7.07- Marc Bulger
8.06- Cedric Benson
9.07- Ron Dayne
10.06- Isaac Bruce
11.07- Michael Clayton
12.06- Brett Favre
13.07- Ernest Wilford
14.06- Lendale White
15.07- Atlanta D
16.06- Jeff Wilkins


That looks like wishful thinking to me. You would be a tad lucky to get TO that late in the 2nd, same goes for J-Lew and KJ in the 3rd and 4th. Benson, Ahman, Michael Clayton, and Lendale will all go at least a round higher than you have them projected and you would be lucky to nab Tony G and Dayne at those spots.


That's why I called it the "gimme" draft, as in gimme those players. But you could always substitute.. For example trade out Tony with a RB and take Heap or Crumpler a round or two later. Draft Dayne earlier and the take a different RB than Benson. The key is to find those RB values as they fall, because they are falling this year. Normally, I don't feel comfortable with the RBs I find in the 3rd round, let alone the 5th. Now I'm seeing potential first round RBs in the 3rd and so on.
---

All this talk is about drafts going on right now, as we all know that as situations clear up in training camp and preseason it is much harder to draft some guys for value. 2 months from now, I may have to reevaluate what kind of talent may or may not be available.

You want a more realistic draft?

Steve Smith
Harrison
J.Lewis
D.Foster
A.Green
Bulger
Crumpler
Dayne
Kennison
Michael Clayton
Deangelo
Wilford
Staley
Atlanta
Wilkins
Bradford

I'm still VERY comfortable with a roster like that. And I'm pretty sure you could get that exact roster in at least 50% of drafts right now from the #6 spot.
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