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by Kensat30 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 3:49 pm I'm starting to entertain the idea of going WR/WR in redrafts this year if I don't land high pick. As I do more mocksdrafts and begin to seriously evaluate my player rankings, I'm realizing that there are certain values and voids in value that would support a WR/WR strategy. The main catch with this strategy is that you have to know which WRs to target, you have to know which RBs to target, and you have to know when to find the undervalued RBs in the middle rounds.
My main points:
#1- Outside a very limited set of RBs, I don't see many "sure-thing" type RBs available in the first two rounds. WR/WR is based on having a middle or late round redraft position. With the 6th-12th picks, I think you are most likely getting your choice of WR1 and WR2 overall, and more importantly, I think you are very likely to land a solid RB1/2 punch in the third and fourth. In fact, some of my more highly rated RBs are regularly falling into the 3rd round or later.
#2- To expand on point #1, I'm seeing RBs in the 3rd- 4th, even 7th+ rounds that I can think I can platoon to produce similar or better numbers than RBs drafted in rounds 1-2 this year. Kevin Jones is sometimes falling into the 5th round or later, while Ronnie Brown goes in the 1st. Why is that? Jamal Lewis goes in the third when he was ranked as high as the #4 overall RB last year? Ron Dayne falls into the 8th+ round even though he will most likely fill the void of #10 RB Mike Anderson. I feel that unlike most years, there are a lot more RBs being overlooked in the mid-rounds that can be effective starters, even studs in most formats. And with the ever present danger of RB injury, I think that this strategy that forces you to draft RB in bulk to find starters can even be safer than a standard RB early strategy when injuries or multiple injuries pop up. Think of Deuce/Julius owners last year.
#3- There seems to be a consensus on the top8 WRs in the draft: Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison. While they may seem more plentiful than in most years, I feel that there are only 5 or 6 surething stud WRs this year, and they can pose a distinct advantage over the field if you are lining up two of them every week. Make a combo out of Smith, Holt, CJ, Harrison, and TO and you are rock soild. Moss in the 3rd round is also a gimme pick. I would not rule out going WR-WR-WR in start 3-WR leagues if this was the case... Darrell Jackson and Plaxico Burress fill out my "WR#1" tier with the remaining Fitzgerald and Boldin.
#4- Outside of one or two players, I absolutely do NOT like the 4th-8th round WRs this year. All the WRs I want to take my chances on do not fall in this range and I see myself focusing mostly RB, QB, and TE in these rounds no matter how my first few rounds went. The older vets WRs I tend to be draft fall into late-middle, if not double digit rounds (ie Rod Smith/Isaac Bruce/Keenan McCardell/etc.). And the young inexperienced and overlooked players also tend to fall into the late middle and double digit rounds(Michael Clayton/Ernest Wilford/Donte Stallworth). Since I will only take 1 QB and 1 TE early, that means I'm picking anywhere from around 3-5 RBS in the 4th-9th rounds.. and I'm thinking that the majority of these RBs have the potential to equal the value of some 1st round picks, which is unusual to say the least.
Example "gimme" draft out of the 6 spot:
1.06- Steve Smith
2.07- Terrell Owens
3.06- Jamal Lewis
4.07- Kevin Jones
5.06- Tony Gonzalez
6.07- Ahman Green
7.07- Marc Bulger
8.06- Cedric Benson
9.07- Ron Dayne
10.06- Isaac Bruce
11.07- Michael Clayton
12.06- Brett Favre
13.07- Ernest Wilford
14.06- Lendale White
15.07- Atlanta D
16.06- Jeff Wilkins
Thoughts?
