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Anyone else thinking WR/WR this year?

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Postby clmor » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:24 am

So, to make it easier to follow, I'll make a separate post with how this turned out.

This is my draft from a 12 person league with 2 out of 12 being fairly new to fantasy but, still had "resources". I drafted 10 out of 12 and had planned to go WR/WR once I learned that spot about 2 weeks ago. The BIGGEST problem I had was it is a 2RB/2WR/1 FLEX league so -- 3 RB's puts you in a really nice spot and i was worried about even getting TWO.

Anyway (also -- I had my choice of WR's - these were the first two off the board -- I just happen to have these two at the top spots):

Smith
Holt
Foster
Taylor
Gore
Williams
Maroney
Barber
Bryant
McNair
Drew
Norwood
Watson
Akers
MIA

From the beginning, my idea was to try and take specific TEAM RB units that I had confidence in instead of a mix of random players. This draft was Monday -- AFTER G. Jones was ruled out for the season.

Lineup:

McNair
D Foster
F Taylor
Gore
S Smith
T Holt
Watson

So -- even after some people took FOUR RB's their 1st 4 picks, I was able to put in a starting lineup with two "stud" WR's and 3 RB's.

Was able to get both DeAngelo W and Maroney for Foster and Dillon upside even though I don't have Dillon.

Was able to take fliers on Maurice Drew, Jerious and Barber III AND get Antonio Bryant for a WR fill in.

I was pretty happy with this.
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Postby The Lung » Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:44 am

Paul Charchian from Fanball espouses a similar draft strategy he has entitled "Do the Opposite," and here is his 2006 review of this strategy.

From http://www.fanball.com/buzz/article.cfm?id=8540

By Paul Charchian
Founding Publisher
Do the Opposite: 2006 in Review
Every preseason I spend breathless hours begging, pleading, and beseeching fantasy owners to "Do The Opposite," my term for a draft strategy that involves drafting receivers and quarterbacks early and filling your middle rounds with running backs. As the name would suggest, this is the opposite of how most people draft.

The premise goes like this: the running back position is ripe with injury and inconsistency. But the receiver and quarterback positions are much more stable. Further, those that think they can't find good running backs in the middle rounds are flat-out wrong.

While the season isn't quite done yet, it's not too early to evaluate how well an Opposite Draft worked, compared to the standard strategy of going RB-RB in the first two rounds.

First, note that everyone agreed, myself included, that the "big three" of Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Shaun Alexander should have been the top three selections. After that though, the Opposite Draft was game on. So, as I analyze the Opposite Draft, I'm leaving those three out of the discussion.

I'll look at the running backs who typically were taken in the first two rounds, and then the receivers and quarterbacks who could have been taken instead.

Note, I'm using early September draft results from Fanball and AntSports.com for my list of players.

Typical First & Second-Round Runners
Tiki Barber, average draft position 1.5: Nice yardage, but one touchdown from a first round pick is disastrous to 90% of us.

Clinton Portis, 1.6: He posted seven touchdowns in eight games, which isn't bad, but his yardage numbers are lousy, and his season ended in week 10.

Steven Jackson 1.7: We're through 12 weeks, and he's only scored six times. His combo yardage numbers have been pretty good, but he's only topped 100 rushing yards three times. It's a mixed bag here.

Edgerrin James 1.9: A total disaster. No 100-yard games and only three touchdowns. Is it too late to bring back J.J. Arrington?

Ronnie Brown 1.10: He's a damn good back, who was criminally underused until the light bulb went on for Mike Mularkey in week six. He's only got five touchdowns and two 100-yard games. And his hand injury will sideline him 1-3 weeks.

Rudi Johnson 1.11: Johnson is having a solid season, scoring eight times, but topping 100 yards just three times is disappointing.

LaMont Jordan 2.1: Thanks to an injury-shortened two-touchdown season, Jordan has made an Edgerrin James pick look good.

Carnell Williams 2.2: One touchdown and two 100-yard games? Are you kidding me?

Brian Westbrook 2.3: He's been alright, especially in yardage-heavy and PPR leagues. Scoring just once from weeks six to 11 was very tough on many fantasy owners, though.

Willis McGahee 2.5: He showed some nice determination last Sunday when he played through the pain of three cracked ribs, but scoring one touchdown through the first 11 weeks is apocalyptically bad.

Willie Parker 2.8: Despite a terrible game last week (hey, it was against Baltimore), Parker is having a fine year, scoring 12 times, and posting over 900 yards already.

Kevin Jones 2.10: Seven touchdowns through 12 weeks isn't bad, and he's been a nice surprise in PPR formats.

Reggie Bush 2.11: As good as I thought he would be, he's been equally disappointing. A total loss. The only format where he's startable is in PPR leagues.

Julius Jones 2.12: He hasn't topped 100-yards since week six, and he's managed just three touchdowns all year.

Let's summarize:
- # of RBs who played below his typical draft position: Nine. Barber, Portis, James, Brown, Jordan, McGahee, Williams, Bush, and J. Jones.

- # of RBs who played to his typical draft position: Four. Jackson, Johnson, Westbrook, K. Jones (I'm being nice here).

- # of RBs who played above his typical draft position: One. Parker

Bottom Line: So, of the 14 runners who were likely to be taken after the Big Three in the first two rounds, only five have lived up to their selection status. That's a horrifying 36% success rate.

Typical First & Second-Round Quarterbacks and Receivers
Peyton Manning 1.10: Tom Brady and Carson Palmer didn't quite average out to second round picks, so I'm just analyzing Manning. His 21 passing touchdowns and two running scores equals at least 12.5 rushing/receiving touchdowns in most scoring systems. Only two players (LT and LJ) have more touchdowns.

Steve Smith 1.8: After missing the first two weeks, he has scored and/or topped 100 yards in every game but two.

Torry Holt 2.2: He's been quiet lately, but his seven touchdowns and three 100-yard games isn't bad.

Marvin Harrison 2.5: Five touchdowns and three 100-yard games are moderately disappointing.

Terrell Owens 2.7: Eight touchdowns is solid, but I'd like to see him top 100 more often.

Chad Johnson 2.9: He's in the middle of a historic run, which almost makes it worth forgetting that he only scored once in the first six games.

Larry Fitzgerald 2.11: Lousy season, marred by injury and inconsistent quarterback play.

Anquan Boldin 2.12: He's posted solid yardage numbers, but just four touchdowns.

Let's summarize:
- # of QB/WRs who played below his typical draft position: Three. Harrison, Fitzgerald, and Boldin.

- # of QB/WRs who played to his typical draft position: Five. Manning, Smith, Holt, Johnson, Owens.

- # of QB/WRs who played above his typical draft position: None.

Bottom Line: I'm a little disappointed that none of these guys has blown away his projections, but still, you can't argue with a 63% success rate.

I'll let you do the math. A 36% success rate for runners versus a 63% success rate for receivers and quarterbacks. You should be able to draw your own conclusions here, so I won't insult you by stating the obvious.

(~);}

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(~);}
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Postby Matthias » Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:01 am

clmor wrote:Anyway (also -- I had my choice of WR's - these were the first two off the board -- I just happen to have these two at the top spots):

Smith
Holt
Foster
Taylor
Gore
Williams
Maroney
Barber
Bryant
McNair
Drew
Norwood
Watson
Akers
MIA


This team looks like it turned out to be pretty good. Wonder what this guy's record is.
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Postby BigMusky » Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:08 am

The best strategy is take best player available in the first 4 rounds no matter position. Then you start filling your roster after that.
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Postby Twisted Sister » Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:08 am

Thanks for the post Lung... that author is full of it. The article is slanted towards his strategy...

For example -

"Brian Westbrook - He's been alright"


... just alright!?

"Chad Johnson 2.9: He's in the middle of a historic run, which almost makes it worth forgetting that he only scored once in the first six games."
-

IF YOU COUNTED ON CJ TO CARRY YOUR TEAM (PER THIS STRATEGY) - YOUR RECORD SUCKS AND YOU ARE PROBABLY OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS.

Just a few examples.

Notice how he DIDN"T post his record...LOL :-t
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Postby codered7 » Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:33 am

BigMusky wrote:The best strategy is take best player available in the first 4 rounds no matter position. Then you start filling your roster after that.


I second this. You can always trade, value is most important, not neccesity.
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Postby jdogg_ffc » Fri Dec 01, 2006 7:24 pm

Many leagues don't hardly trade at all.

Just be aware that you may have to field the team you pick.

Last yr. I drafted Dante 3rd big mistake, this yr. I drafted LT third much better.

I think RB WR WR RB RB QB with a early pick(top 5 or so) is the way to go. You need the extra RB early for depth when you go WR WR round 2 and 3.

In my case the RBs were LT, K. Jones, and F. Gore.

Starter *
QB- *Delhomme , V. Young
RB- *L.Tomlinson, Kevin Jones, *Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams
WR-*T. Holt, Randy Moss, *R. Caldwell
Te LJ Smith, *Ben Watson
K-*J. Kasay
D-*Waiver Wire

Worst picks now gone Dante rd5 Matt Jones rd8, and R. Moss in round 3 what was I thinking!!!!!!! Duh!!!!
First the Shock, then the Pistons can the Lions be next?

Well maybe next yr.

PS I didn't lose a paper bag challenge but somehow as a Lion's fan it just feels right.
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Postby moochman » Mon Dec 04, 2006 2:30 am

For an update; I drafted 11th in a 12-team league and drafted WR/WR (Smith and TO) I later added A Johnson (we start 3 WR, PPR). I got lucky and draft FWP, McGahee, KJ, and Green. My QB was Bledsoe so I've been playing Kitna and whoever is on the wire. Playing the wire with my D as well most weeks.

I clinched 1st place in a competitive league and look pretty strong going into the playoffs.

I will surely try WR/WR again next season if there are no uber-stud RBs to take when my turn comes up. We draft real early and I relied heavily on Cafe forums for help in finding studs in waiting.
Thanks a ton guys. I hope to bring home my first FF title. ;-D
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Postby JasonSeahorn » Mon Dec 04, 2006 3:55 pm

yay moochman! my team in 1st place with clinched playoff spot wasn't WR-WR, but i did the RB-WR-WR-RB strategy, taking Sjax, CJ, Wayne, and CTaylor...i originally had trent green, but huard/wallace/frye/pennington all made good week-to-week plays.

i'd say getting good wides are very important rather than getting the "good" rbs...after the top 5 or so there is a big drop off, i'd consider getting 1 stud RB and then rely on finding an up and coming sleeper RB. this year was the year of the backup rb ;-D
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