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My late pick drafting strategy...

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My late pick drafting strategy...

Postby Plindsey88 » Mon Jun 19, 2006 8:15 pm

For those of you wondering how to draft well and be competitive with a late round pick, I think I have developed an excellent strategy that I would like to share… Don’t bother using this technique if you have an early round pick, and definitely don’t bother if you are playing with inexperienced players, as their actual picks will be somewhat unpredictable… In fact, this strategy is for veteran players, who are relatively confident in their abilities to make projections, create a VBD chart, and know where to find good ADP ratings… If you’re asking yourself what in the world is a VBD chart or ADP list right now, you probably aren’t going to understand most of this…


Step One:

Create what you to believe to be a relatively accurate VBD chart… Do this from your own projections, rather than borrowing one off the internet, or averaging the past 3 years of play… Take the time to list the top 50 or so players at each position, and make projections for them… Then create a VBD chart from those projections, and move on to step two…


Step Two:

Go on the internet and find what you believe to be a relatively accurate ADP ranking… Personally, I’d use Antsports…


Step Three:

Sit down with your VBD chart and your ADP rankings and figure the differential for each player… What I mean by this, is calculate the difference between where your VBD ranks the player and where an ADP list ranks the player… For example:

My VBD ranking on Chad Johnson currently sits at 12th overall…

Antsports’ ADP list has him at 18th…

His differential is (ADP-VBD) = (18-12) = +6

My VBD ranking on Clinton Portis is currently sits at 11th overall…

Antsports’ ADP list has him at 4th…

His differential is (ADP-VBD) = (4-11) = -7

Do this for all the players on your VBD chart…


Step Four:

Highlight everyone on your differential list with a positive differential… These are the players who typically fall further than you think they should…


Step Five:

Break out the ADP chart, and group all of your highlighted players according to round… In other words, if they’re highlighted and their ADP is round one, they are one group… If they’re highlighted, and their ADP is round two, they are the next group… And so on… Next to every player, write down their differential…


Step Six:

What you now have is a list of every player that is falling too far in drafts (by your estimation) and the average place that they are picked in every draft… This is valuable information to have… Now, go through your list starting in the second round… Ignore the players in the first round… Construct what you think is the ideal team, using only one player in each tier, and excluding the first tier… When possible, try to use players with the highest differential…


Step Seven:

Draft the team you just created in Step Six… 90% of the time, you can draft this team player for player if you start with the player you selected from the second tier and work your way down… All of these players are players that you think should outperform their draft position, and all of these players should be available to you, as you value them more than most drafters… Try it… It works…


Obviously the more players you have with high differentials, the more likely you are to pick them up… And the more accurate your projections are, the better this strategy will work, but I just finished about 8 mocks using it, and so far I am EXTREMELY pleased with all of my teams… People usually say WTF after my first round pick, but by draft’s end most people think I have a damn decent team…

Anyways, those are my thoughts on drafting late…
Last edited by Plindsey88 on Tue Jun 20, 2006 7:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby FantasyMan13 » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:00 pm

I love it Plindsey. This is exactly what the ultimate goal of the draft is IMO: trying to get players who will most outperform their draft position. Keep the great ideas coming man, as I am sure I will use this! ;-D
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Postby no1cowboysfan » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:05 pm

Quiet, you fool! :-o

Anyways, I have been doing this for a couple years ... I don't calculate the differentials and whatnot, but I do it on the fly with the two lists.

Gotta love draft slippage. ;-D
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Postby Crimedogg32 » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:18 pm

Got a little trouble in the math with Portis involved ;-7

It is a great strategy though but very time consuming to project everyones stats.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:18 pm

no1cowboysfan wrote:Quiet, you fool! :-o

Anyways, I have been doing this for a couple years ... I don't calculate the differentials and whatnot, but I do it on the fly with the two lists.

Gotta love draft slippage. ;-D


Yeah, me too...

But do the calculations... You'll be surprised at the team you can construct before hand, and then draft player for player...

The problem with doing it on the fly, is you take someone who drops, and lose out on the HUGE value you didn't notice...

Does that make sense?
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Postby WickedSmaat » Mon Jun 19, 2006 11:32 pm

My VBD ranking on Clinton Portis is currently sits at 11th overall…

Antsports’ ADP list has him at 4th…

His differential is (ADP-VBD) = (4-11) = -11


:-?





Now, would you be able to set up a list for me and do all the highlighting? I just don't think I have the time for all of this ;)
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Postby Infidel » Mon Jun 19, 2006 11:57 pm

In theory it sounds good. I would like to see a whole draft or 2 where pick by pick you give analysis of why you picked who you did as well as more raw stats.
CheeseWhiz is a great substitute for plazma.
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Postby no1cowboysfan » Tue Jun 20, 2006 2:38 am

Plindsey88 wrote:
no1cowboysfan wrote:Quiet, you fool! :-o

Anyways, I have been doing this for a couple years ... I don't calculate the differentials and whatnot, but I do it on the fly with the two lists.

Gotta love draft slippage. ;-D


Yeah, me too...

But do the calculations... You'll be surprised at the team you can construct before hand, and then draft player for player...

The problem with doing it on the fly, is you take someone who drops, and lose out on the HUGE value you didn't notice...

Does that make sense?


I think I know where you're going, but I'm a little confused.

Can you make a hypothetical example? :-?
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Postby Pete123444 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:35 am

And to take this one step further. You can use your numbers for draft trades. Good post Plindsey! ;-D
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Thanks GP!!
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Re: My late pick drafting strategy...

Postby mlavwilson » Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:49 am

Plindsey88 wrote:For those of you wondering how to draft well and be competitive with a late round pick, I think I have

...

Anyways, those are my thoughts on drafting late…


This is a good strategy. I have considered incorporating this into League Master. That way all the user would have to do is create the projections, then the tool would do the rest! However I was just going to place the diferential in a column in the Player Pool view. I like how you have taken it a step further.
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