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My late pick drafting strategy...

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Postby onnestabe » Tue Jun 20, 2006 8:53 am

no1cowboysfan wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:The problem with doing it on the fly, is you take someone who drops, and lose out on the HUGE value you didn't notice...

Does that make sense?


I think I know where you're going, but I'm a little confused.

Can you make a hypothetical example? :-?


I think this is what he is saying....

On the fly, you might notice that Chad Johnson represents good value in the second round just by the virtue of the fact that almost all the players on your VBD list are gone except for him. What you may not notice though, is that Thomas Jones is still there as well (my example assumes that you are really Matthew Berry in disguise), and he is an even better value. Using the differential number assigns a number to each guy so that you can see which one represents the most value. It would be easy to see that Chad Johnson's differential is +6, as compared to a hypothetical +10 for Thomas Jones.

I think Plindsey's strategy really shines in the middle rounds of the draft, where the range of players you expect to go in each round is very large, and there are a lot more options. It may be hard to decide between 5 different players that all represent good value for your team, but using the differential, you know which players will do the best relative to draft position.

Please correct me if I am wrong on this, Plinds.
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Postby DezNuts2 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:20 am

nice draft strategy. I have always used this approach but never the way you stated. It seems like a lot of home work, but in the end, I will know my top 150 players like the back of my hand. I bet you get a lot of late round sleepers doing this approach?
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Postby Monse_HQ » Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:50 pm

So I worked out the numbers using this formula from Player 1 thru Player 81 on AntSports ADP. I used FootballGuys VBD. Some of the numbers are surprising. You can look at the numbers here 'http://www.geocities.com/monse_hq/Draft_Strategy.xls' or right-click 'Save Target As'


Hope this helps. I'll finish them (hopefully up till Player 200 or more), and then update them.


EDIT: I created 2-sheets inside that document, one is sorted by ADP and the other is sorted by Total Score.
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Postby smackthefirst » Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:00 pm

Not a bad job Monse, but be aware that these early builds of footballguys VBD is pretty much useless. They have certain players at very odd positions due to the projections they gave them. As the season gets closer, they will update and give you a better idea of what their VBD looks like.

I would still suggest going in and changing some of the projections though, even on the final build, to be more realistic to what you think.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 7:14 pm

onnestabe wrote:
no1cowboysfan wrote:
Plindsey88 wrote:The problem with doing it on the fly, is you take someone who drops, and lose out on the HUGE value you didn't notice...

Does that make sense?


I think I know where you're going, but I'm a little confused.

Can you make a hypothetical example? :-?


I think this is what he is saying....

On the fly, you might notice that Chad Johnson represents good value in the second round just by the virtue of the fact that almost all the players on your VBD list are gone except for him. What you may not notice though, is that Thomas Jones is still there as well (my example assumes that you are really Matthew Berry in disguise), and he is an even better value. Using the differential number assigns a number to each guy so that you can see which one represents the most value. It would be easy to see that Chad Johnson's differential is +6, as compared to a hypothetical +10 for Thomas Jones.

I think Plindsey's strategy really shines in the middle rounds of the draft, where the range of players you expect to go in each round is very large, and there are a lot more options. It may be hard to decide between 5 different players that all represent good value for your team, but using the differential, you know which players will do the best relative to draft position.

Please correct me if I am wrong on this, Plinds.


Yeah, that's basically it...


The main point of this exercise is to construct your ideal team going into the draft, and know with 90% certainty that you can draft that team straight up...

Once you start working on the fly, you pick up a player here, but miss good value there, and things get out of whack...

Don't get me wrong, I typically work on the fly, as well, but believe it or not, even though I typically live and breathe fantasy football, I've actually had better teams come draft's end with this strategy than with picking on the fly...
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Postby Fierce_Cubs » Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:16 am

Mikes method to middle to late round picking:

Make two lists. "First Names" and "Last Names" Put the 150 Last Names that appeal to you the most, and then put their First names and rank them in accordance to how much appeal it has. Then figure out the differential between the persons first name and last name, i call this the Dumba*s quotion.

This is usually how it goes...

Johnson, that sounds like a good strong all american name. I'll take him, but there's several Johnsons, time to consult my First names list, Chad, Brad, Bryan, oh here's a good one, Larry that's a strong sounding name, he'll probably rush for at least 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Last year, thanks to players like Edgerrin and Houshmandzadeh i was able to dominate my league.

This is in no way a slam on you, you're system looks great, i just don't have the time or mental strength to do so much research, i just try to get acquainted with all the players and do my research on them so i know what i want when the draft rolls around. and the drafts i take part in are slow moving so i have plenty of time to think.
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