Antonio Gates Underrated?

[terpfan]

Am I missing something? Or is this post coming from the future?

hey terp, what do you think Ryan Leaf is doing these days?

I always thought he's stocking shelves at a Best Buy somewhere in Arkansas...but that's just me.

I was talking about Rivers' "ineptitude at the QB position." You do realize he hasnt been starting right?

[WickedSmaat]

Rivers hasn't shown much in the few passes that he's thrown. Just another mediocre quarterback. Gates numbers will decline slightly I think but I still think he's a late 3/early 4th pick. Atleast that's where I'd pick him.

[no1cowboysfan]

Am I missing something? Or is this post coming from the future?

hey terp, what do you think Ryan Leaf is doing these days?

I always thought he's stocking shelves at a Best Buy somewhere in Arkansas...but that's just me.

I was talking about Rivers' "ineptitude at the QB position." You do realize he hasnt been starting right?

I think this is some of that BH sarcasm I hear do much about but never see.

And actually BH, Ryan is the QB Coach for West Texas A&M. No joke.

[FFCoppola]

Now, I should explain. Phil Rivers is a new QB. Drew Brees was the old QB. Drew Brees threw to Gates almost exclusively, for several reasons:

1. Gates is a good receiver.
2. The rest of the SD receiving corps (LT aside) are muppets.
3. Brees has an arm like wet pasta and therefore prefered throwing to the TE.
4. Brees had had success in the past throwing to Gates.

The last two don't apply to Rivers, although I don't belive they should hurt Gates too much. The real reason I think Gates will disappoint is twofold:

1. He's being taken in the third bloody round! He gets taken before Reggie Wayne, before DJax, I've seen him go before Fitzgerald. He goes before Jamal Lewis in some mocks. To justify that sort of draft position he would have to -improve- on last year's stats.
2. Last year's stats were stunning for a tight end. 1100 yds, double digit TD's is very, very good, and that sort of season doesn't grow on trees. Even if Brees -stayed-, I wouldn't expect Gates to repeat it.

I think Gates is really worth a late 4th, early fifth round pick, which means I'll never get him because someone will take him higher than that. He had a great year, but that doesn't make him Jesus.

[Free Bagel]

Am I missing something? Or is this post coming from the future?

hey terp, what do you think Ryan Leaf is doing these days?

I always thought he's stocking shelves at a Best Buy somewhere in Arkansas...but that's just me.

I was talking about Rivers' "ineptitude at the QB position." You do realize he hasnt been starting right?

Pretty sure he was joking about Rivers prior stats

[mattb47]

First off, I don't understand why you are saying he is underrated, he is being picked in the third round of pretty much every draft I've seen.


As for the possibility that some people may think his numbers will drop off, I can't believe that anyone wouldn't think his numbers might have a drop off because of Rivers. Brees was (I'm saying was because we don't know how he will return from such a serious injury) one of the best QBs in all of football, and Rivers is basically a rookie. That right there tells me that the passes that come Gates's way may not be with the same precision. Also, Rivers has not had a chance to adjust to the NFL game (I don't know how much adjusting to the game you can do from the sidelines), so his reads won't be as good as Brees's, and thus one cannot help but think that the looks that Gates gets may not be as good as they were with Brees.

Of course, this could all be resolved if Rivers transitions perfectly and becomes one of the best in the game.


Just my 2 cents on the situation.

Rivers doesn't have to be a better QB than Brees for Gates' number to stay the same, or even to improve. Young QBs generally throw to their TEs a lot, and in addition to that Rivers' strengths are more suited to Gates' than Brees' were (IE he can do a better job of getting him the ball down the field, where Brees struggled a bit).

Exactly my point. Thank you FB

This is what I'm saying too. Young, inexperienced QBs tend to throw to their TEs a lot. Especially one as established as Antonio Gates. I would expect Gates and LT to get alot of receptions this year from Rivers. This is the same reason why I think that Vernon Davis will perform well in San Francisco. Alex Smith is going to dump the ball off to VD all day long, same thing for Rivers.

[JStein]

Somebody took Gates in round two in my league. Now THAT's called reaching. I took Heap and Miller and I will do that anyday over a second-round Gates. Gates is tremendously talented, don't get me wrong - but he isn't in the most ideal situation. As Belichick always says, it's all about the situation.

[smackthefirst]

Well the Gates issue has two sides in my eyes. The real world side and the FF side. First the real world side. Gates was nothing short of amazing last year. The biggest problem is everyone, including coaches saw that. Yes he was great, yes Brees left, yes Rivers appears to have better throwing ability, and yes rookie QB's use the TE a lot. The problem is every other coach in the league also realizes this. Gates will see many more doubles, bumps, and schemes to throw both him and Rivers off. Do I think he will do good? Yes. Do I think he improves on last year? Only chance of that happening is if LT goes nuts running the ball and teams have to decide between locking down LT or AG.

Now taking all that into consideration from a fantasy perspective obviously makes me reluctant. Then I see Gates coming off in the late second and early third. That's just too high for anyone with these types of questions around them for my tastes. Gates three years ago was the man when he was coming off draft boards after the 12th round, but now we are talking about a TE before the 35th pick? I just can't do it. Heck even if Breees stayed, taking a TE that high is something I would be torn over.

And for those that are stuck on the "rookie QB uses the TE more" mantra, also remember that even though he may look to the TE more, how will the offense in general be effected. If the rookie throws to the TE 25% than the veteran did, but the offense is 50% worse, well then the TE really isn't in a better situation. Now those are just made up numbers, but you see my concern.

[Twisted Sister]

Well the Gates issue has two sides in my eyes. The real world side and the FF side. First the real world side. Gates was nothing short of amazing last year. The biggest problem is everyone, including coaches saw that. Yes he was great, yes Brees left, yes Rivers appears to have better throwing ability, and yes rookie QB's use the TE a lot. The problem is every other coach in the league also realizes this. Gates will see many more doubles, bumps, and schemes to throw both him and Rivers off. Do I think he will do good? Yes. Do I think he improves on last year? Only chance of that happening is if LT goes nuts running the ball and teams have to decide between locking down LT or AG.

Now taking all that into consideration from a fantasy perspective obviously makes me reluctant. Then I see Gates coming off in the late second and early third. That's just too high for anyone with these types of questions around them for my tastes. Gates three years ago was the man when he was coming off draft boards after the 12th round, but now we are talking about a TE before the 35th pick? I just can't do it. Heck even if Breees stayed, taking a TE that high is something I would be torn over.

And for those that are stuck on the "rookie QB uses the TE more" mantra, also remember that even though he may look to the TE more, how will the offense in general be effected. If the rookie throws to the TE 25% than the veteran did, but the offense is 50% worse, well then the TE really isn't in a better situation. Now those are just made up numbers, but you see my concern.

Obviously, you didn't have him on your roster last year. The guy was so reliable and also had explosive games... games that a top tier WRs couldn't even replicate. As an owner last year, I'm now a Gates convert. Get him in the 3rd and enjoy the ride.

If you're familiar with VBD - you'll see that his value over the next best TE justifies taking him earlier.

PS - Brees is overrated... his impact of leaving is also overrated.

EDIT - I'd also rather have Gates in the 3rd over a risky RB pick that will probably turn out to be a dog (FWP, KJ, JJ, Jamal, Chester T., Droughns, etc.). I mean com'mon folks... we know that at least 3 of those RBs will underachieve/bust.

[smackthefirst]

For the sake of clarification and debate, I not only had Gates last year, but I have had him the last two years so I know what kind of production he brings to the table. I also agree that the last two years, he has put up numbers that not many WR's have put up. Aside form those facts though, I just have conerns that I can't shake.

First, for the VBD. VBD is determined by projected stats which I am sure you know, but if Gates has such high projected stats, then his VBD will be high. I'm concerned about the stats that go into the VBD position. If we had a WR who lost his QB, we would all be concerned about the production drop off. But because Gates is a TE, we think that his numbers will increase or at the minimum stay the same with a rookie QB. I agree rookie QB's are more likely to target their TE's for safety reasons, but if the offense in general declines, those increased targets will be less overall. Even Shockey saw a decrease in the amount of catchs when Eli came in. TD's did go up, but catchs went down.

Also of concern for me in regards to Gates is how other teams will now deal with him. Gonzo had two steller seasons and was the only other thought last year along with Gates at TE. But D's started bumping him off the line, double covering him, and using corners to cover him. And we all know how Gonzo killed some teams last year. I don't see any reason why teams wouldn't do the same to Gates.

Now I don't want people to think that I am against Gates. I think he is by far the best TE in the game right now. I even think that at the end of the season, he very well may end up being the highest point producer from the TE spot. But my concern is how many more points will he put up than say a Shockey who can be had on average 2 rounds later? Or even more of a concern is if any other TE's will come out of the year like Gates did two years ago. On athletic talent, people like Troupe and VDavis are interesting to me and can be had much later. And no that does not mean I put Troupe or VDavis anywhere near Gates.

But at the end of the day, I think this all comes down to personal personal opinion in regards to Gates. Some people see the last two years and hear all the news and think he won't be stopped, while others like myself are concerned that his draft value has just gone too high for our taste.