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Antonio Gates Underrated?

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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Jun 20, 2006 8:25 pm

smackthefirst wrote:The biggest problem is everyone, including coaches saw that. Yes he was great, yes Brees left, yes Rivers appears to have better throwing ability, and yes rookie QB's use the TE a lot. The problem is every other coach in the league also realizes this. Gates will see many more doubles, bumps, and schemes to throw both him and Rivers off.


This is nothing new. Coaches have known about Gates for plenty long now. If they haven't made adjustments before now they don't have a job anymore. Wasn't Champ covering Gates last year?

Then I see Gates coming off in the late second and early third. That's just too high for anyone with these types of questions around them for my tastes. Gates three years ago was the man when he was coming off draft boards after the 12th round, but now we are talking about a TE before the 35th pick? I just can't do it. Heck even if Breees stayed, taking a TE that high is something I would be torn over.


Look at the numbers put up by Gates and some of the WRs taken ahead of him or just around him. Guys like Torry Holt and Anquan Boldin outscored Gates by 14 and 12 fantasy points respectively, and they're being taken as legitimate #1 fantasy WRs. Around the same area, guys are taking Djax, Wayne, Ward to be their #1 WRs....Gates outscored all of these guys from the TE position!

Gates puts up top #2 WR numbers, and legitimate low-end #1 WR numbers from the TE spot. That right there screeeeeaaaammmmsss value. Sure, some of the other TEs put up some nice numbers, but they're numbers that total afterthough WRs like Muhsin Muhammad and Terry Glenn that can be picked in the 12th round and beyond can put up with relative ease.

You look at the difference between a Gates/Driver combo vs. a Wayne/Heap or a Boldin/Crumpler combo and you're looking at numbers that aren't even remotely close.

smackthefirst wrote:Or even more of a concern is if any other TE's will come out of the year like Gates did two years ago. On athletic talent, people like Troupe and VDavis are interesting to me and can be had much later. And no that does not mean I put Troupe or VDavis anywhere near Gates.


I don't get this argument at all. There are guys like Troupe or VDavis every year, it is very very very very very very very very rare for them to break out up to a level anywhere close to where Gates is. Meanwhile there are mid-tier WRs that fly to the top like rockets every year. If anything, it is ridiculously more likely for a mid-tier WR to turn into an elite one than it is for a TE.

I mean seriously, if anything you've got this argument backwards and it should be the WR supporters worried about WRs coming out of nowhere, not the other way around..
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:11 pm

I've got Gates valued as a 2nd round pick. So yes, he is undervalued as a third rounder.

The guy could have Cade McNown throwing to him and he would still be putting 6's up on the scoreboard. Gates in the redzone, LT at the goalline. Mark it down people, it works.
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Postby aussieboy » Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:15 am

Kensat30 wrote:I've got Gates valued as a 2nd round pick. So yes, he is undervalued as a third rounder.

The guy could have Cade McNown throwing to him and he would still be putting 6's up on the scoreboard. Gates in the redzone, LT at the goalline. Mark it down people, it works.


Is Gates that far ahead of the pack this yr?

With so much depth at the TE position this yr I can't justify taking a TE before the 5th round, maybe the 4th if the right guy is there. It's not like it was before when it was TGonz and then daylight.
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Postby maddog60 » Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:21 am

Free Bagel wrote:
smackthefirst wrote:The biggest problem is everyone, including coaches saw that. Yes he was great, yes Brees left, yes Rivers appears to have better throwing ability, and yes rookie QB's use the TE a lot. The problem is every other coach in the league also realizes this. Gates will see many more doubles, bumps, and schemes to throw both him and Rivers off.


This is nothing new. Coaches have known about Gates for plenty long now. If they haven't made adjustments before now they don't have a job anymore. Wasn't Champ covering Gates last year?


I think you're thinking of the Denver vs. KC week 1 matchup two years ago when they made a huge deal about Champ covering Gonzo. Especially since Champ pretty much shut him down.

Look at the numbers put up by Gates and some of the WRs taken ahead of him or just around him. Guys like Torry Holt and Anquan Boldin outscored Gates by 14 and 12 fantasy points respectively, and they're being taken as legitimate #1 fantasy WRs. Around the same area, guys are taking Djax, Wayne, Ward to be their #1 WRs....Gates outscored all of these guys from the TE position!

Gates puts up top #2 WR numbers, and legitimate low-end #1 WR numbers from the TE spot. That right there screeeeeaaaammmmsss value. Sure, some of the other TEs put up some nice numbers, but they're numbers that total afterthough WRs like Muhsin Muhammad and Terry Glenn that can be picked in the 12th round and beyond can put up with relative ease.


Its not so much his point total compared to WRs, position scarcity plays a big role. Let's say for instance I have an early 1st round pick, 3rd for example. I grab Alexander and Parker with my first two picks, and in the 3rd Gates is waiting for me. Now, I could take Gates, but then if I go WR in the 4th and 5th, I'll likely end up with a duo like Andre Johnson and Housh.

Now, lets say I go WR in the 3rd. Someone like Anquan Boldin is very likely going to be there. I can grab AJ in the 4th and comfortably expect Shockey to fall to me in the 5th.

Its much more likely that the drop off between a Boldin and a Housh is greater than Gates to Shockey. And at that, Shockey would be going earlier than he should too, but it just proves a point. Due to the fact you're only start one TE, and a lot more legitamite TE starters have developed, position scarcity plays a big role. 2-3 years ago guys like Bubba Franks and Daniel Graham were being started because they'd put up a TD every other week. Now, TEs have become more consistent producers, Gates may be out in front, but there are enough TEs to go around, the position scarcity isn't there. 3 starting WRs leaves a lot more position scarcity.
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Postby disgruntledjetsfan » Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:19 am

Free Bagel wrote:
disgruntledjetsfan wrote:First off, I don't understand why you are saying he is underrated, he is being picked in the third round of pretty much every draft I've seen.


As for the possibility that some people may think his numbers will drop off, I can't believe that anyone wouldn't think his numbers might have a drop off because of Rivers. Brees was (I'm saying was because we don't know how he will return from such a serious injury) one of the best QBs in all of football, and Rivers is basically a rookie. That right there tells me that the passes that come Gates's way may not be with the same precision. Also, Rivers has not had a chance to adjust to the NFL game (I don't know how much adjusting to the game you can do from the sidelines), so his reads won't be as good as Brees's, and thus one cannot help but think that the looks that Gates gets may not be as good as they were with Brees.

Of course, this could all be resolved if Rivers transitions perfectly and becomes one of the best in the game.


Just my 2 cents on the situation.


Rivers doesn't have to be a better QB than Brees for Gates' number to stay the same, or even to improve. Young QBs generally throw to their TEs a lot, and in addition to that Rivers' strengths are more suited to Gates' than Brees' were (IE he can do a better job of getting him the ball down the field, where Brees struggled a bit).


This is a very good point. I doubt that Gates' numbers will improve, but I wouldn't be shocked if they were similar to last year's numbers. I think Rivers has a very good arm and should be a good NFL QB, so I personally don't think Gates will be missing much in a year or two between Brees and Rivers.
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:33 am

maddog60 wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
smackthefirst wrote:The biggest problem is everyone, including coaches saw that. Yes he was great, yes Brees left, yes Rivers appears to have better throwing ability, and yes rookie QB's use the TE a lot. The problem is every other coach in the league also realizes this. Gates will see many more doubles, bumps, and schemes to throw both him and Rivers off.


This is nothing new. Coaches have known about Gates for plenty long now. If they haven't made adjustments before now they don't have a job anymore. Wasn't Champ covering Gates last year?


I think you're thinking of the Denver vs. KC week 1 matchup two years ago when they made a huge deal about Champ covering Gonzo. Especially since Champ pretty much shut him down.

Look at the numbers put up by Gates and some of the WRs taken ahead of him or just around him. Guys like Torry Holt and Anquan Boldin outscored Gates by 14 and 12 fantasy points respectively, and they're being taken as legitimate #1 fantasy WRs. Around the same area, guys are taking Djax, Wayne, Ward to be their #1 WRs....Gates outscored all of these guys from the TE position!

Gates puts up top #2 WR numbers, and legitimate low-end #1 WR numbers from the TE spot. That right there screeeeeaaaammmmsss value. Sure, some of the other TEs put up some nice numbers, but they're numbers that total afterthough WRs like Muhsin Muhammad and Terry Glenn that can be picked in the 12th round and beyond can put up with relative ease.


Its not so much his point total compared to WRs, position scarcity plays a big role. Let's say for instance I have an early 1st round pick, 3rd for example. I grab Alexander and Parker with my first two picks, and in the 3rd Gates is waiting for me. Now, I could take Gates, but then if I go WR in the 4th and 5th, I'll likely end up with a duo like Andre Johnson and Housh.

Now, lets say I go WR in the 3rd. Someone like Anquan Boldin is very likely going to be there. I can grab AJ in the 4th and comfortably expect Shockey to fall to me in the 5th.

Its much more likely that the drop off between a Boldin and a Housh is greater than Gates to Shockey. And at that, Shockey would be going earlier than he should too, but it just proves a point. Due to the fact you're only start one TE, and a lot more legitamite TE starters have developed, position scarcity plays a big role. 2-3 years ago guys like Bubba Franks and Daniel Graham were being started because they'd put up a TD every other week. Now, TEs have become more consistent producers, Gates may be out in front, but there are enough TEs to go around, the position scarcity isn't there. 3 starting WRs leaves a lot more position scarcity.


Well for starters, I think you're being a bit conservative with your predictions about who's going to be available at each spot, but even still using your guys...

Boldin outscored Housh by 40 points this past year despite playing 1 additional game. Meanwhile, Gates outscored Shockey by 38. So even using your conservative players, and even with Shockey having a career year it still works out about even. Now given that I think you could do better than Housh in the 5th, and given that Shockey had a career year this past year and I could easily see his numbers falling, and given that if someone grabs Shockey ahead of you you're looking at a huge dropoff in points, I think this one's fairly simple.

It's like you said....positional scarcity. But you've got it backwards. 2000 yards and 15 TDs between the TE and one of your WRs is the same no matter who puts up which numbers. With Gates in the 3rd you can find a WR to get you to that mark in the late rounds, with a 3rd round WR you still need to grab a 5th or 6th round TE in additional to reach that mark.
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Postby Twisted Sister » Wed Jun 21, 2006 8:55 am

It's also worth noting that Gates 2005 numbers should be adjusted upward because of his early season suspension.
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Postby smackthefirst » Wed Jun 21, 2006 10:45 am

I understand the positional scarcity POV in regards to the TE's. And trust me I do not think Gates will be a flop, but I am concerned about how his production will be affected.

I guess my main sticking point is the actual draft position. Gates is being "marked" as a late 2nd round or early 3rd round pick. In a PPR league, he finished 10th last year based on my numbers which is great. My concern though is the year before, Gonzo finished 9th and Gates 10th, but I can't recall that many talks about either of them going in the late 2nd or early 3rd. Most talks had them in the late 3rd. I'm just concerned as to why it is now being bumped up to the late 2nd or early 3rd.

But then again, it could just be my stuborness in not wanting to waste a high draft pick on a TE because that's how it has been for me for so many years because if it wasn't Gonzo, it wasn't really worth it.

Bagel,

Thanks for bringing up your points as I had not completely looked at it from the other view point until reading through your post. I still don't think I will be going after Gates unless it's after the halfway point in the 3rd round, but at least the idea is now in my head.
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Postby onnestabe » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:01 am

smackthefirst wrote:I guess my main sticking point is the actual draft position. Gates is being "marked" as a late 2nd round or early 3rd round pick. In a PPR league, he finished 10th last year based on my numbers which is great. My concern though is the year before, Gonzo finished 9th and Gates 10th, but I can't recall that many talks about either of them going in the late 2nd or early 3rd. Most talks had them in the late 3rd. I'm just concerned as to why it is now being bumped up to the late 2nd or early 3rd.


I know that a lot of mocks and rankings I saw last year had Gates in the late second round.

I was never in the position to take him there last year, so I can't tell you if I would have taken him that high. I don't think I could have done it last year, and I certainly wouldn't take him that high this year.
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Postby PSU All Day » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:14 am

I was able to grab Gates in the fourth round last year and he and LJ basically won me my league points title.

I think he is worth a high 3rd round pick for all of the reasons FB mentions. 2nd round is a bit high for me but I can see why someone would take him there.

Until someone else actually steps up and gets into his tier you have to respect him high.
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