So you have the first pick...

[PlayingWithFire]

Tomlinson, best overall athlete, I'm afraid Alexander won't have the fire inside him now that he got the tag and all those money.

LJ is too risky for me.

[moochman]

I think the SeaHacks won't focus as much on SA getting the TD record so his numbers will decrease.
LT should have one of his best seasons, I don't know how much of an affect Rivers will have on his #s.
LJ has a new HC and OC, but his HC ran Marting a ton and is conservative. The numbers that LJ put up last season were obscene. I could not pass on the chance that he can come close to the second half production from last season.
LJ would be my pick in this no lose scenario.

[houstonherdfan]

I'll take LT if it is a point for reception league. He has been a beast at RB getting receptions. I don't expect that to change this year.

If no popints for receptions then LJ because of the the O-line in KC and that Preist is pretty much done now (I think).

[citybirds27]

I'll take LT if it is a point for reception league. He has been a beast at RB getting receptions. I don't expect that to change this year.

If no popints for receptions then LJ because of the the O-line in KC and that Preist is pretty much done now (I think).

I KNOW

[biju]

Not a single person so far has mentioned any of these 3 back's games during the Fantasy Playoffs. I'll include weeks 14-16 since I have a 3 week playoff in one of my leagues.

Tomlinson:

week 14: vs. Denver
week 15: vs. Kansas City
week 16: @ Seattle

Johnson:

week 14: vs. Baltimore
week 15: @ San Diego
week 16: @ Oakland (Saturday game)

Alexander:

week 14: @ Arizona
week 15: vs. San Francisco (Thursday game)
week 16: vs. San Diego

personally I like Alexander's schedule the best. Even better is that means the Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland games (including NY Giants and Chicago) have already been played. They may need to win those ARI and SF games which means a heavy dose of SA! On top of that week's 15 and 16 are home games...



As far as consistency goes there's no way to really gauge. Each team has had their RB go for 15+ TDs in each of the last 3 seasons.

I think LT probably has the least amount of risk involved since he's been doing it with a horrible cast for years now but his ceiling is limited. LJ has the most risk but probably the higher ceiling. That's why I like Alexander this year over anyone else.

[onnestabe]

Good call on the playoff schedules, biju. I usually do a better job of looking at those things, but I haven't gotten around to it yet this year.

[Guru13]

id go LJ, then shaun, then, and this will surprise many people, Tiki, I honestly think Tiki will put up better numbers than LT, I mean, I know that LT will get the ball more, but with rivers at the helm, the D will be all over him, and not that he wasn't there main focus last year, but last year gates was much more of a threat than he is this year, I think that tiki has the better situation, and will have an amazing year.

[BrutallyHuge]

LJ, SA, LT for me.

My league values TDs more than yards. I think LJ and SA have more TD potential.

[moochman]

Not a single person so far has mentioned any of these 3 back's games during the Fantasy Playoffs. I'll include weeks 14-16 since I have a 3 week playoff in one of my leagues.

Tomlinson:

week 14: vs. Denver
week 15: vs. Kansas City
week 16: @ Seattle

Johnson:

week 14: vs. Baltimore
week 15: @ San Diego
week 16: @ Oakland (Saturday game)

Alexander:

week 14: @ Arizona
week 15: vs. San Francisco (Thursday game)
week 16: vs. San Diego

personally I like Alexander's schedule the best. Even better is that means the Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland games (including NY Giants and Chicago) have already been played. They may need to win those ARI and SF games which means a heavy dose of SA! On top of that week's 15 and 16 are home games...



As far as consistency goes there's no way to really gauge. Each team has had their RB go for 15+ TDs in each of the last 3 seasons.

I think LT probably has the least amount of risk involved since he's been doing it with a horrible cast for years now but his ceiling is limited. LJ has the most risk but probably the higher ceiling. That's why I like Alexander this year over anyone else.

If you want to introduce the schedule into the fray then you have to factor in the odds of these teams winning thier divisions. The C-Hacks have a decided advantage in thier division and should have it cinched by week 15 or 16. That could mean that SA has a much higher risk of having reduced stats.
KC and SD will be more likely to be in a dogfight all year and will have to have their big guns all game. Edge LJ and LT.

[ngub12]

I think the SeaHacks won't focus as much on SA getting the TD record so his numbers will decrease.
LT should have one of his best seasons, I don't know how much of an affect Rivers will have on his #s.
LJ has a new HC and OC, but his HC ran Marting a ton and is conservative. The numbers that LJ put up last season were obscene. I could not pass on the chance that he can come close to the second half production from last season.
LJ would be my pick in this no lose scenario.

As a coach or gm, with your player in a contract year, wouldn't you want your player to NOT break the TD record so you can pay him less (of course your #1 priority is winning ball games)?
a lot of SAs tds were when they were up or within the 5 yd line.... its been that way for years with him. it seems to me hes gonna get those tds regardless of the situation.

it seems being the TD record holder would be a pretty big barganing chip to get an even more monster deal. so basically, i dont think seattle had the intention of getting me the record per se, they just executed thier regular game plan week in to week out.