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Mock Draft results with WR/WR strategy

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Postby Timbathia » Tue Jun 27, 2006 6:25 pm

Are these all 10-person leagues you are talking about? It seems that the first 3 spots are total money in that instance, but does WR/WR work better in a 12-teamer where the WR depth doesnt last until the third round for those 1-3 spots?
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Postby cjudge27 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 7:43 pm

We just set the draft positions for the upcoming season where we are able to carry over any rookie drafted for that round drafted. I landed Ronnie Brown in the fourth. I have the 12th selection in a 12 team league. After reading this post and the other about going WR in rounds one and two I'm seriously considering it. I should be able to land a capable back in round 3. I'm thinking Smith and Johnson at the 12 and 13 spot.

I believe it makes a lot of sense in this scenario!
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Postby Twisted Sister » Wed Jun 28, 2006 8:09 am

Kensat30 wrote:
Twisted Sister wrote:Having Droughns/FWP/Jamal/KJ/JJ/TJ as your #1 and #2 RBs will guarantee finishing 5-8th in you league.

Folks, the WR/WR approach only works if you trade out of the 1st round entirely.

WHY burn a 1st round pick on Smith or CJ... WHY? Trade into the 2nd and gaining an additional 2nd 3rd and 4th/5th.

Would you rather have Fitz + Gates(or 3rd round RB) + Palmer/Eli/Chambers

Or

Just Steve Smith?


Good luck arranging a trade for a 2nd/3rd/4th for just a 1st round pick. Are you kidding me? Not to mention that in a lot of redrafts, a draftpick trade is not feasible or allowed.

And regarding your X player as RB#1/RB#2 argument, look at the above poster's mock draft. He doesn't get stuck in a RB#1/RB#2 gameplan, he has 4 starting RBs to work with each and every week. Not only does that mean he has layers of protection against injury, but he can also play the hothand and matchups week in and week out. A lot of guys that go RB/RB in their first two rounds won't have those kind of options because they have 2 "studs" to start each week and little else.


Good points... especially for leagues where draft pick trades are not allowed. (BTW - trades of a 1st for a 2nd and 3rd are not too hard to put together... depending on your 1st draft spot, you can also get a 4th or 5th)

However, I still think a WR/WR is risky because RBs are more consistent. Also, if you want RB depth... there is nothing preventing an owner from picking up another RB in the 3rd/4th.

Yes, I would much rather have 2 stud rbs + 1 mediocre RB than 4 mediocre. RB match-up play is not all it's cracked up to be.

I just don't see how you reach for a Steve Smith or CJ in the 1st... any 1st round RB will be better VBD wise. I'm not opposed to a RB/WR draft.
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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Jun 28, 2006 7:18 pm

Twisted Sister wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Twisted Sister wrote:Having Droughns/FWP/Jamal/KJ/JJ/TJ as your #1 and #2 RBs will guarantee finishing 5-8th in you league.

Folks, the WR/WR approach only works if you trade out of the 1st round entirely.

WHY burn a 1st round pick on Smith or CJ... WHY? Trade into the 2nd and gaining an additional 2nd 3rd and 4th/5th.

Would you rather have Fitz + Gates(or 3rd round RB) + Palmer/Eli/Chambers

Or

Just Steve Smith?


Good luck arranging a trade for a 2nd/3rd/4th for just a 1st round pick. Are you kidding me? Not to mention that in a lot of redrafts, a draftpick trade is not feasible or allowed.

And regarding your X player as RB#1/RB#2 argument, look at the above poster's mock draft. He doesn't get stuck in a RB#1/RB#2 gameplan, he has 4 starting RBs to work with each and every week. Not only does that mean he has layers of protection against injury, but he can also play the hothand and matchups week in and week out. A lot of guys that go RB/RB in their first two rounds won't have those kind of options because they have 2 "studs" to start each week and little else.


Good points... especially for leagues where draft pick trades are not allowed. (BTW - trades of a 1st for a 2nd and 3rd are not too hard to put together... depending on your 1st draft spot, you can also get a 4th or 5th)

However, I still think a WR/WR is risky because RBs are more consistent. Also, if you want RB depth... there is nothing preventing an owner from picking up another RB in the 3rd/4th.

Yes, I would much rather have 2 stud rbs + 1 mediocre RB than 4 mediocre. RB match-up play is not all it's cracked up to be.

I just don't see how you reach for a Steve Smith or CJ in the 1st... any 1st round RB will be better VBD wise. I'm not opposed to a RB/WR draft.


Tell me what Ronnie Brown and Edgerrin James end of year VBD numbers will be for the 2006 season. A reach is only a reach at the end of the year. Not to mention a "Mediocre" RB to some is a "steal" to others. Maybe your VBD numbers tell you to go RB in the first... I'm having trouble pegging early RBs down for the numbers many people expect them to have in the bank. I see bust and others see goldmine. Couple that with some strong RBs I see falling to the 3rd, 4th, even the 8th round, and I think going WR in the 1st is feasilb.e

Look at the big picture. RBs tend to get injured more than WR and there is a lot of turnover for the top RBs every year. I think there are studies out there shownig that you have a 50% chance of your 1st round RB being a bust. If you exclude the big3 from that theory (not that you should), then a lot MORE than 50% of early RBs will bust..

The Best WRs tend to produce well year after year. I personally believe TO is worth the #5 pick in this years draft based on what he can do and what he has done. Would I pick him at #5? Maybe. Would I hesitate to drop a 1st on TO? Absolutely not.
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Postby stomperrob » Wed Jun 28, 2006 8:14 pm

PACKman1144 wrote:Did anybody draft WR/WR in a league that they played in last year, where every owner was active?

I'm curious to see the results.


I did one last year to see how it would work but it was an autopick - it was a 10 teamer and unfortunately for me, lol, an active league. My picks by round:
1) R Moss
2) T Owens
3) C Johnson
4) C Brown
5) T Bell
6) M Hasselbeck
7) R McMichael
8) Pittsburgh
9) J Elam
10) R Brown (RB)
11) P Burress
12) C Rogers
13) D Carr
14) Chicago
!5) J Putzier

My record was a measly 4-10-0, good enough for 9th place, even after adding a couple more running backs later like Anderson and Parker. I know I had better luck when I did it 2 years ago but I can't find that team right now. Maybe not the best example being an autodraft.
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Postby Ironhorse75 » Wed Jun 28, 2006 10:03 pm

stomperrob wrote:
PACKman1144 wrote:Did anybody draft WR/WR in a league that they played in last year, where every owner was active?

I'm curious to see the results.


I did one last year to see how it would work but it was an autopick - it was a 10 teamer and unfortunately for me, lol, an active league. My picks by round:
1) R Moss
2) T Owens
3) C Johnson
4) C Brown
5) T Bell
6) M Hasselbeck
7) R McMichael
8) Pittsburgh
9) J Elam
10) R Brown (RB)
11) P Burress
12) C Rogers
13) D Carr
14) Chicago
!5) J Putzier

My record was a measly 4-10-0, good enough for 9th place, even after adding a couple more running backs later like Anderson and Parker. I know I had better luck when I did it 2 years ago but I can't find that team right now. Maybe not the best example being an autodraft.


Take out CJ for a third round back, and lets say Moss/TO played a full season, you would of had a decent team.
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Postby MrTwo94 » Wed Jun 28, 2006 10:30 pm

Timbathia wrote:Are these all 10-person leagues you are talking about? It seems that the first 3 spots are total money in that instance, but does WR/WR work better in a 12-teamer where the WR depth doesnt last until the third round for those 1-3 spots?


WR/WR might work "less badly" in a 12-team but WR/WR is a crap strategy. Especially this year when suckers are drafting Portis, Tiki, and Edge ahead of Jackson and Jordan. Lots of quality WR's are available in the 3rd and 4th round. Take solid RB's in the first two rounds and you can grab Roy Williams in the 3rd and maybe a Chambers in the 4th and D.Jackson or Driver in the 5th. Maybe even take a chance with Matt Jones or Koren Robinson later on. WR has such better depth and is so unpredictable that it is foolish to anchor your team around them. I had a team last year where I got Steve Smith and Fitzgerald in the 4th and 5th rounds. You can't bank on that but taking RB's early allowed me the opportunity to take a chance on those guys. People who drafted Wayne two rounds earlier were much worse off.
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Postby PACKman1144 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:36 am

Ironhorse75 wrote:
stomperrob wrote:
PACKman1144 wrote:Did anybody draft WR/WR in a league that they played in last year, where every owner was active?

I'm curious to see the results.


I did one last year to see how it would work but it was an autopick - it was a 10 teamer and unfortunately for me, lol, an active league. My picks by round:
1) R Moss
2) T Owens
3) C Johnson
4) C Brown
5) T Bell
6) M Hasselbeck
7) R McMichael
8) Pittsburgh
9) J Elam
10) R Brown (RB)
11) P Burress
12) C Rogers
13) D Carr
14) Chicago
!5) J Putzier

My record was a measly 4-10-0, good enough for 9th place, even after adding a couple more running backs later like Anderson and Parker. I know I had better luck when I did it 2 years ago but I can't find that team right now. Maybe not the best example being an autodraft.


Take out CJ for a third round back, and lets say Moss/TO played a full season, you would of had a decent team.


Yeah that is true. Injuries killed ya there, and the autodraft kinda screws it up...
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:25 am

stomperrob wrote:
PACKman1144 wrote:Did anybody draft WR/WR in a league that they played in last year, where every owner was active?

I'm curious to see the results.


I did one last year to see how it would work but it was an autopick - it was a 10 teamer and unfortunately for me, lol, an active league. My picks by round:
1) R Moss
2) T Owens
3) C Johnson
4) C Brown
5) T Bell
6) M Hasselbeck
7) R McMichael
8) Pittsburgh
9) J Elam
10) R Brown (RB)
11) P Burress
12) C Rogers
13) D Carr
14) Chicago
!5) J Putzier

My record was a measly 4-10-0, good enough for 9th place, even after adding a couple more running backs later like Anderson and Parker. I know I had better luck when I did it 2 years ago but I can't find that team right now. Maybe not the best example being an autodraft.


That's because you went way way way too light on the RBs.

I don't think people are really comprehending the point in the WR/WR draft totally. It doesn't just mean taking two or more WRs and then picking up two mid-round RBs and filling out the rest of your team....that won't work. The strategy involves grabbing those first couple WRs and then LOADING UP on the mid-round RBs. Those mid-round RBs may look good now, but they have an enormously high bust rate so it's going to take 5 or 6 of them in addition to some luck to get even two quality starters.

If you go WR in your first two picks, AT LEAST four of your next five picks should be RBs, and you should look to add a few more after that as well. When all is said and done you want 6 or 7 of those guys.
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Postby bagobonez » Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:35 am

Free Bagel wrote:
stomperrob wrote:
PACKman1144 wrote:Did anybody draft WR/WR in a league that they played in last year, where every owner was active?

I'm curious to see the results.


I did one last year to see how it would work but it was an autopick - it was a 10 teamer and unfortunately for me, lol, an active league. My picks by round:
1) R Moss
2) T Owens
3) C Johnson
4) C Brown
5) T Bell
6) M Hasselbeck
7) R McMichael
8) Pittsburgh
9) J Elam
10) R Brown (RB)
11) P Burress
12) C Rogers
13) D Carr
14) Chicago
!5) J Putzier

My record was a measly 4-10-0, good enough for 9th place, even after adding a couple more running backs later like Anderson and Parker. I know I had better luck when I did it 2 years ago but I can't find that team right now. Maybe not the best example being an autodraft.


That's because you went way way way too light on the RBs.

I don't think people are really comprehending the point in the WR/WR draft totally. It doesn't just mean taking two or more WRs and then picking up two mid-round RBs and filling out the rest of your team....that won't work. The strategy involves grabbing those first couple WRs and then LOADING UP on the mid-round RBs. Those mid-round RBs may look good now, but they have an enormously high bust rate so it's going to take 5 or 6 of them in addition to some luck to get even two quality starters.

If you go WR in your first two picks, AT LEAST four of your next five picks should be RBs, and you should look to add a few more after that as well. When all is said and done you want 6 or 7 of those guys.


I agree with the WR/WR strategy to SOME extent. However I feel like regardless of your draft position, you can take a RB in round 1 and still get TWO top tier WR's in rounds 2 and 3. No sense in reaching for a stud WR in round 1 when you can get similar quality in rounds 2 and 3. Of course this just depends on your ranking. I, for example, have 8 WR's in the "top tier"

S.Smith
T.Owens
C.J.
Holt
M.Harrison
L.Fitzgerald
C.Chambers
R.Moss

So I can take a RB in round 1 and still have a good chance of nabbing two of these guys, especially if I'm drafting 1-6 or so. If you have a late pick, then maybe you can get two quality RB's in round 1.

So I'm thinking if my pick ends up being early, I"ll go RB/WR/WR. Otherwise I may go RB/RB/WR/WR depending on who's available at RB towards the end of round 1.
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