Rookie RBs taking over in mid-season

[Goatwhacker]

In reading through the Addai threads here and elsewhere one theme I keep seeing is people feeling he will take over as starting RB mid-season. Off the top of my head I couldn't think of this happening too often so I conducted a completely non-scientific review of RB's at nfl.com.

What I found is it's not very common for a rookie to take over midway through their first season. It's much more common for them either to start from day one (like Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown last year) or not start any at all (lots of good backs fall into this category, including Priest Holmes, Ahman Green and Willie Parker). Shaun Aexander only started one game his rookie season.

There are some examples of rookie RB's taking over in mid-season, the two most prominent I found were Clinton Portis and Domanick Davis. Two other examples are William Green and Anthony Thomas, neither of whom panned out too well in the long run. Willis McGahee might fall into this category, he missed all of his rookie season and started halfway through the second. Another might be Fred Taylor - I couldn't find the details of his rookie season.

Anyway this is just Sunday afternoon conversation, I wouldn't make too much of it but if history is any guide whoever is starting at the beginning of the season will probably still be starting at the end. There are some unique aspects to Addai, namely that Rhodes is not a top back and is prone to injury, plus the Colts offense is a little more tricky what with Mannings pre-snap theatrics. This may mean a longer learning curve for Addai.

[Keyser_WV]

I agree with you. I think people are taking a real chance when they draft guys like DeAngelo Williams over DeShaun Foster.

I did a mock the other day and Williams went 3 rounds ahead of Foster. I asked the guys what was up and they all said Williams will be starting by week 5.

I don't get it.

It does seem Addai is in the best situation out of all the rookie backs.

I am hoping to get some serious value in redrafts out of guys like Foster, C. Brown, C. Dillon, and Ron dayne.

[thriftyrocker]

Your examples have little merit. Priest and FWP were both undrafted. Ahman was a 5th round pick. Nobody is picking Gerald Riggs, Jr. in a redraft league in case he gets a shot. The guys ahead of DeAng, Mauroney, and LenDale all have legit question marks (injury history, age, being shopped in trades) so these rookies all have good value in redraft leagues.

[disgruntledjetsfan]

In regards to DeAngelo Williams:

Unless Deshaun Foster gets injured this year (of course this seems to be more of a likelihood than just a possibility with foster), Williams will not do much in the way of fantasy football this season. Foster is a good back, he has just had injury problems in the past. I really wouldn't draft him in a redraft unless it is a really deep league, or I'm desperate for a running back in the latter rounds of the draft (which I try and make sure never happens). Therefore, I agree with you GW, the only guy who will likely take over by midseason is addai, simply because rhodes is not a RB who is capable of carrying the load (I'm not exactly sure addai can either, but i think he can handle 20 carries a game).

[Azrael]

If Addai does not win the job to start or is atleast part of an RBBC then I don't see him "taking" the job over in the middle of the season. If Rhodes is starting at the beginning of the year only an injury to him will give Addai any value.

There's alot of people who play fantasy football that don't really understand how real football works. Think about it; the guy has like 4 months to impress the coaches during mini-camps, training camps, and perform in pre-season games to win the job or split time. If he couldn't do it then, he's not going to do it during the regular season when, in this case, Rhodes would be getting 90% of the reps in practice.

You can liken it to last year when Mike Anderson won the job from Tatum Bell and how many freakin people said the same thing about Tatum Bell, "oh he'll be starting by week 5 or 6". I said how is he going to take the job from Anderson when it was basically given to him in March and by August he lost it to a 32 year old guy coming off a major injury.

If he can't get the job before the season starts, it's highly unlikely he's just going to take the job when he hardly gets any pt in practice at that point. Most times it takes an injury to get your foot in the door.

[cruiz03]

Great topic.... I agree in the sence that all of these running back will be #2's until an injury happens. Addai in my opinion has Rhodes to beat, which is easier than in any of the other RB's.

The fact that D. Williams is getting drafted ahead of Foster is crazy. The guy has had all broken bone issues, not muscles or tears, which is some bad luck if I've ever heard of it. Nothing that he can control.

[BigBadBrawler]

I think when it comes to Rooks in RBBCs, they have a better shot at earning more reps/carries by outperforming their counterparts. Addai and Rhodes will probably be in a RBBC situation and if Addai outperforms Rhodes (which I think is definately possible), then he could get a higher percentage of the carries. Same with R.Bush and L.White (although I think those are more likely to remain fairly even split RBBCs). Guys like D.Williams and Maroney though, I think they start off as back-ups and won't get a shot to outperform the vets unless an injury gives them some playing time. So I'd take a shot at Addai and Bush in redrafts, but probably not Williams or Maroney (unless it was as a hand-cuff).

[Deathwarmedover]

As far as rookie RBs this year, Bush is the only one I see as a viable starter (have him ranked 23 this year) but I am very high on LenDale White. I think he will at least get short yardage and goalline touches and has a chance for a true RBBC with Brown and if(when) Brown gets injured he will be the man in TEN. As far as long term, I think Marouney will get some carries this year in NE and the Pats won't resign Dillon so he should start there next year. Williams has huge upside but there is a risk that Foster will surprise us all and prove that he can play for an entire year. If he can't I think he is gone assuming Williams plays well. I think Addai is headed for a true RBBC this year and years to come. Indy seems to have major questions about his durability and it seems they are looking for him and Rhodes as a RBBC.


Steve

[Dplymkr88]

Great topic.... I agree in the sence that all of these running back will be #2's until an injury happens. Addai in my opinion has Rhodes to beat, which is easier than in any of the other RB's.

The fact that D. Williams is getting drafted ahead of Foster is crazy. The guy has had all broken bone issues, not muscles or tears, which is some bad luck if I've ever heard of it. Nothing that he can control.

While I personally woulnd't pick DW over Foster, I can see the logic in someone doing so. DF has a history of injury, and broken bones are not simply bad luck it's unfortunate but not bad luck. Throw in the fact that at one point last season it looked like Carolina was ready to cut ties with Foster and you can really see where this line of thought comes from. I don't think that its any more misguided than awarding Foster the starters role before training camp even starts.

[Daddymike59]

Most of the guys mentioned are in an rbbc situation because of the injury factor to the starting back not because of the "rookie phenom" factor. C Brown is an excellent runner as is Foster and Deuce, which noone has yet mentioned. Does anyone think that Bush will replace Deuce as the starting back in NO? I don't. He will probably start in some other capacity but Deuce will be the starting Rb. As will Brown and Rhodes.