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Ron Dayne and the Denver RB quandary

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Postby BGbootha » Thu Jul 06, 2006 12:57 pm

Flux wrote:Heres my thoughts:

If the 1000 yd RB out of DEN is always the unpredictable RB, then isn't that in itself now coming predictable that it's the unpredictable? And now if its supposed to be unpredictable, then that would lead me to believe that the true unpredictable RB, is the current predictable RB. And the current predictable RB, who would really be the undpredictable RB b/c he is the predictable RB is Dayne. Its all very simple!


This has to be the best post I have read in a while!!! Simple logic really, motus tollens I believe.
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Postby suppasonic » Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:33 pm

Flux wrote:Heres my thoughts:

If the 1000 yd RB out of DEN is always the unpredictable RB, then isn't that in itself now coming predictable that it's the unpredictable? And now if its supposed to be unpredictable, then that would lead me to believe that the true unpredictable RB, is the current predictable RB. And the current predictable RB, who would really be the undpredictable RB b/c he is the predictable RB is Dayne. Its all very simple!


But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
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Postby chchelse » Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:53 pm

suppasonic wrote:
Flux wrote:Heres my thoughts:

If the 1000 yd RB out of DEN is always the unpredictable RB, then isn't that in itself now coming predictable that it's the unpredictable? And now if its supposed to be unpredictable, then that would lead me to believe that the true unpredictable RB, is the current predictable RB. And the current predictable RB, who would really be the undpredictable RB b/c he is the predictable RB is Dayne. Its all very simple!


But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.


Inconceivable!
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Postby The_Dude » Thu Jul 06, 2006 2:27 pm

BGbootha wrote:
Flux wrote:Heres my thoughts:

If the 1000 yd RB out of DEN is always the unpredictable RB, then isn't that in itself now coming predictable that it's the unpredictable? And now if its supposed to be unpredictable, then that would lead me to believe that the true unpredictable RB, is the current predictable RB. And the current predictable RB, who would really be the undpredictable RB b/c he is the predictable RB is Dayne. Its all very simple!


This has to be the best post I have read in a while!!! Simple logic really, motus tollens I believe.


You sure its not modus ponens? :-B

(or maybe the dreaded tautology)
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Postby steelerfan513 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 2:30 pm

Flux wrote:Heres my thoughts:

If the 1000 yd RB out of DEN is always the unpredictable RB, then isn't that in itself now coming predictable that it's the unpredictable? And now if its supposed to be unpredictable, then that would lead me to believe that the true unpredictable RB, is the current predictable RB. And the current predictable RB, who would really be the undpredictable RB b/c he is the predictable RB is Dayne. Its all very simple!


my head hurts :-b
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Postby jayday » Thu Jul 06, 2006 5:13 pm

It won't be decided till training camp....But I could see as many as 3-4 guys having a legit shot at getting significant playing time.....

First, you have to look at Dayne....Denver's system is similar in ways to his college Heisman days at Wisconsin....I could see him doing really well as the starter.....But he hasn't exactly proven himself to be able to carry the load....Had a high of 13 carries last season....

Next is Tatum Bell....There is 0% chance he averages 20 or more carries a game....He is not going to get the lion's share....Period....That doesn't mean he couldn't make a decent spot start here or there, but you're pretty much praying he breaks a 50 yarder for a TD on one of his 12 carries....Taking a big risk drafting him.....

A sleeper this year is Cedric Cobbs....Big, fast, workhorse who could be a stud if he gets the opportunity....He's been in the system a year and should be right in the thick of the training camp battle....

A deep, deep, deep dark horse is Mike Bell....Someone will probably have to get injured for him to get a chance, but he played in a zone-blocking scheme at Arizona and has the perfect skill set for Denver.....He's a one-cut back with excellent vision....He is also a hometown favorite in Denver....Can you imagine ESPN gushing over this story...."Undrafted rookie shines on hometown team".....But like I said, he'll need an injury or two to get an oppurtuniy this season....

So basically we aren't going to learn anything until training camp, and possibly not even until preseason like we did last year.....I think you're best to wait until the late rounds and draft them if one falls, most likely Cobbs, to get any kind of value for the pick....
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Re: Ron Dayne and the Denver RB quandary

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 6:24 pm

J2thez929 wrote:Okay, it seems that everyone and their mother has Ron Dayne penciled in as the next 1000 yard rusher out in Denver. Maybe it's just me but I have no desire to draft Dayne until the 10th round or even later! I know the knock on Tatum Bell is that he can't block or shoulder the full load so naturally Dayne should be the man, right? I'm just not buying into those statements or theories.

If you look back to 2004, Griffin was "supossed" to be the next 1000 yard rusher. That didn't work out too well and next thing you know, a guy with the first name of Reuben was rushing his way to that honor.

Next year, Tatum Bell was touted as the next 1000 yard rusher for the upcoming season and he was being draft fairly early in most mocks and drafts. Once the season started Mike Anderson was the man and ran his way to that 1000 yard honor.

Now, we have this year and everyone says Ron Dayne will be this guy. I just don't buy that based on track record. It could very well end up being an unknown like Mike Bell, Marty Johnson, Cedric Cobbs, Brandon Miree, or even Tatum Bell that becomes the "Denver 1000 yard rusher"

I don't know if anyone else agrees with me here but that's just my take or my 2 cents, so to speak, on the Denver RBs this year.


If you break it down, the Denver RB situation is comparable to LJ, SA, and LT. If one guy emerges there you have a legit top5 candidate. But even if one guy doesn't emerge and you have a 40/40/20 type split, both RBBC backs will be in the top15-top20.

Last season we saw Mike Anderson come away with 50% of the plays and the majority of the goalline looks, and he broke into the top10. The guy didn't even get 240 carries on the season (let alone the 300 that everybody talks about for fantasy RBs). Anderson barely broke 1,000 yards rushing (which seems to be basically a given for the average NFL starting RB). Yet he was still a top10 fantasy RB. Tatum Bell was basically a glorified 3rd down RB, but he scored enough points to be a startable RB#2 in most leagues. Think about that for a second, how is that possible?

Why in the world wouldn't you want to draft Ron Dayne until the 10th round? That is the appropriate value to pick him even if we knew going in that he was GUARANTEED to be the BACKUP. He could see 150 carries and still score enough to rank inside the top20. Guys like Kevan Barlow won't see that kind of production even if they do get 300 carries. Personally, I think Dayne is going to start, get the majority of the touches ,and the majority of the goalline looks, making him the steal of the draft in the range we are talking.

To ignore the Denver Rb situation because you don't want to get it wrong is dumb IMO. Especially when you can grab Dayne for so cheaply and the scoring potential is so huge out in Denver. Letting Dayne go to another owner in the 8th/9th/10th is a HUGE mistake IMO. You gotta be crazy to pass him up at that point. Hell, even if you think it's Bell, what does he cost right now about a 5th, 6th round pick? I think that is the appropriate value for Bell even if he plays the same role as last season.

jayday wrote:So basically we aren't going to learn anything until training camp, and possibly not even until preseason like we did last year.....I think you're best to wait until the late rounds and draft them if one falls, most likely Cobbs, to get any kind of value for the pick....


Cedric Cobbs is the value? You gotta be kidding me, take off the blinders fella. Sure he is a nice last round sleeper pick but c'mon. All the information has been thrown out there already. Read between the lines. Dayne = steal.
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Re: Ron Dayne and the Denver RB quandary

Postby Twisted Sister » Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:40 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
Cedric Cobbs is the value? You gotta be kidding me, take off the blinders fella. Sure he is a nice last round sleeper pick but c'mon. All the information has been thrown out there already. Read between the lines. Dayne = steal.


Dayne in the 5th/6th is NOT a steal... and that's where he's going. That's an expensive lotto ticket at this point in time.
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Re: Ron Dayne and the Denver RB quandary

Postby J2thez929 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:38 pm

Twisted Sister wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Cedric Cobbs is the value? You gotta be kidding me, take off the blinders fella. Sure he is a nice last round sleeper pick but c'mon. All the information has been thrown out there already. Read between the lines. Dayne = steal.


Dayne in the 5th/6th is NOT a steal... and that's where he's going. That's an expensive lotto ticket at this point in time.


That is exactly what I was trying to say. I said 10th round b/c I wouldn't touch Dayne earlier like that. If he happens to fall in the 9-11th round range, then yes he is a quality value selection. But not in the 5th or 6th where his ADP is currently
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Re: Ron Dayne and the Denver RB quandary

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:42 pm

J2thez929 wrote:
Twisted Sister wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:
Cedric Cobbs is the value? You gotta be kidding me, take off the blinders fella. Sure he is a nice last round sleeper pick but c'mon. All the information has been thrown out there already. Read between the lines. Dayne = steal.


Dayne in the 5th/6th is NOT a steal... and that's where he's going. That's an expensive lotto ticket at this point in time.


That is exactly what I was trying to say. I said 10th round b/c I wouldn't touch Dayne earlier like that. If he happens to fall in the 9-11th round range, then yes he is a quality value selection. But not in the 5th or 6th where his ADP is currently


Agree to disagree. I think Dayne is EASILY worth a 5th round right now, although I find it highly doubtful that someone in most drafts would select him that high at this point. Where are you pulling your ADP? I see Dayne going as RB30+ in most drafts..

Personally, I have Dayne well inside my top20 RBs. I think he is worth at least a 3rd round pick, possibly a 2nd when you get down to it. No way in hell he goes that high until late August though. Hell, I'm counting on name value alone DROPPING his stock into the 4th round after he lights up the preseason.

Just look at LJ last season if you want some sort of compass of where Dayne should go. LJ was a 4th/5th round pick last year, sometimes he fell into later rounds because no one had the balls to draft the most highly touted backup in NFL history. Some people wouldn't touch him until he fell well into the 7th,8th, and 9th rounds, and that was their bad. Now this guy was the BACKUP. Granted Denver is no KC, but it is right up there with the elite rushing teams in the league. IMO Dayne is the FRONTRUNNER for the starting job at this point. The potential is enormous, the risk is minimal.

Do you guys realizes that on a point per touch basis, Denver RBs are premium commodities? Everybody talks about how Denver is a RB farm, and that they have a new RB every year, but that doesn't change the fact that the guy touting the ball for Denver is going to score some massive points. I guess with no Portis or Terrell Davis getting the bulk and putting up top5 numbers, it's hard to distinguish how productive Denver RBs can be. Just added up the stats though, Mike Anderson/Bell were scoring at a Portis/Terrell Davis clip last season. Why not take a gamble on that in the 5th round? You would rather take Curtis Martin?
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