Ron Dayne and the Denver RB quandary

[jayday]

So basically we aren't going to learn anything until training camp, and possibly not even until preseason like we did last year.....I think you're best to wait until the late rounds and draft them if one falls, most likely Cobbs, to get any kind of value for the pick....

Cedric Cobbs is the value? You gotta be kidding me, take off the blinders fella. Sure he is a nice last round sleeper pick but c'mon. All the information has been thrown out there already. Read between the lines. Dayne = steal.

I probably shouldn't have used the term value in my earlier post as I think that's what threw you off...

Right now we don't know who will be the starter Week 1....We aren't through training camps or preseason yet.....In every recent Cafe draft or mock I've seen, Dayne has gone in the 5th round, Tatum often going in the late 5th or 6th.....And I'm not saying Dayne and Bell won't or can't live up to their 5th/6th round billing, I'm saying it's too early to have any idea who will come out of camps as the top dog....

The past 3 seasons, Dayne has amassed a whopping 105 carries for 449 yards and 2 TDs....He is no sure thing, even in Denver....He could fall flat on his Twinkie smeared face for all we know.....Do I believe it will happen? No, not at all....I'm a big proponent for drafting Dayne this year, just not as early as he is going....Especially with it still being before training camp and preseason, because we don't know when Shanahan is going to get a wild hair up his butt and decides to sit the Dayne train in favor of someone else.....

That's why I don't believe it's worth it to draft Dayne as early as he's going.....It's not that I don't believe Dayne has the talent, he could even outperform his draft spot just as easily, it's because I don't trust Shanahan enough to use that high of a pick on one of the players I'm going to be depending on....

Now if we're drafting the night before the season kicks off and Dayne has gotten the lion's share of the carries through camps and preseason, then yea I would not hesitate to pull the trigger on Dayne in the 5th at all....In fact if he does well in camps and preseason I could see myself spending a late 3rd on him....But in early July, nah, I'm not as confident in Shanahan's word....He's too much of a high risk/reward to me at this point....

[Free Bagel]

Cedric Cobbs is the value? You gotta be kidding me, take off the blinders fella. Sure he is a nice last round sleeper pick but c'mon. All the information has been thrown out there already. Read between the lines. Dayne = steal.

Dayne in the 5th/6th is NOT a steal... and that's where he's going. That's an expensive lotto ticket at this point in time.

5th and 6th rounders are busts the vast majority of the time anyway. Most other's situations are just as frail as Dayne's and don't have the upside of Denver.

[J2thez929]

I alway enjoy your insight, Kensat and Bagel, but it looks like I will respectfully disagree here. If Dayne lights it up in preseason and this is August 31st then I will bite my tougue on this issue. I actually posted the topic now because a lot of Cafe leagues are currently in the process of drafting or just starting up so this debate is pretty much about now, July 5th, before training camp and preseason.

Sit back and think of how much changes year in and year out in terms of fantasy projections from May until the end of August. Most draft boards look very very different if you compare them. So right now, I've seen Dayne being drafted as early as the 5th round and I think that is a major major gamble considering how much talent is still left sitting on the draft board, IMO.

[ngub12]

Do you guys realizes that on a point per touch basis, Denver RBs are premium commodities? Everybody talks about how Denver is a RB farm, and that they have a new RB every year, but that doesn't change the fact that the guy touting the ball for Denver is going to score some massive points. I guess with no Portis or Terrell Davis getting the bulk and putting up top5 numbers, it's hard to distinguish how productive Denver RBs can be. Just added up the stats though, Mike Anderson/Bell were scoring at a Portis/Terrell Davis clip last season. Why not take a gamble on that in the 5th round? You would rather take Curtis Martin?

thats really the clincher. you can say what dayne is or isnt worth a 5th rounder, but honestly, which other runner are you going to take? they all have question marks at that point. personally i think he has alot of upside for a 5th rounder.

[MrTwo94]

I alway enjoy your insight, Kensat and Bagel, but it looks like I will respectfully disagree here. If Dayne lights it up in preseason and this is August 31st then I will bite my tougue on this issue. I actually posted the topic now because a lot of Cafe leagues are currently in the process of drafting or just starting up so this debate is pretty much about now, July 5th, before training camp and preseason.

Sit back and think of how much changes year in and year out in terms of fantasy projections from May until the end of August. Most draft boards look very very different if you compare them. So right now, I've seen Dayne being drafted as early as the 5th round and I think that is a major major gamble considering how much talent is still left sitting on the draft board, IMO.

Anderson was going in the 10th last year before the final preseason game (so I took him in the 9th both chances I had). He ran for ~150 yds and 2 td's that night so I drafted him in the 4th round in the 3 drafts that I had the very next day and was happy to get him there. He ended up with only 239 carries and was a top 10 rb. I'll take that for a 4th round pick anyday. Players like Clayton and Burleson were going in the 4th round last year. Dayne is a better risk/reward player than most going in the 4th or 5th round this year. If he only gets 200 carries he will more than outperform his draft position. Be smart. This year draft Dayne in the 4th or 5th and take Cobbs late just in case.

[Twisted Sister]

Do you guys realizes that on a point per touch basis, Denver RBs are premium commodities? Everybody talks about how Denver is a RB farm, and that they have a new RB every year, but that doesn't change the fact that the guy touting the ball for Denver is going to score some massive points. I guess with no Portis or Terrell Davis getting the bulk and putting up top5 numbers, it's hard to distinguish how productive Denver RBs can be. Just added up the stats though, Mike Anderson/Bell were scoring at a Portis/Terrell Davis clip last season. Why not take a gamble on that in the 5th round? You would rather take Curtis Martin?

thats really the clincher. you can say what dayne is or isnt worth a 5th rounder, but honestly, which other runner are you going to take? they all have question marks at that point. personally i think he has alot of upside for a 5th rounder.

By the 5th round, I should have already secured my two starting rbs and possibly a backup. I much rather get an upgrade at a starting QB/TE/WR spot than buy a lotto ticket. Shockey over Dayne... you bet

[Verdun Barbarians]

Maurice Clarett must be crying right now

[moonhead]

Maurice Clarett must be crying right now

because of all that love he got from bubba in the pen. did he go to jail? maybe i'm confusing him with another idiotic athlete.

i like ron dayne this year. but like most are saying, i don't want him as my 1 or 2. i don't understand how you wouldn't want to take a chance on him as your 3 or 4 back. and that's usually round 4-6 for me. so i think that is a fair place for him to go. it's kind of like corey dillon to me this year. i don't mind having him on my team, even with all the question marks, i just can't rely on him as one of my starters...but he still has a good chance to produce. and i think dayne is in the same category.

[ngub12]

Do you guys realizes that on a point per touch basis, Denver RBs are premium commodities? Everybody talks about how Denver is a RB farm, and that they have a new RB every year, but that doesn't change the fact that the guy touting the ball for Denver is going to score some massive points. I guess with no Portis or Terrell Davis getting the bulk and putting up top5 numbers, it's hard to distinguish how productive Denver RBs can be. Just added up the stats though, Mike Anderson/Bell were scoring at a Portis/Terrell Davis clip last season. Why not take a gamble on that in the 5th round? You would rather take Curtis Martin?

thats really the clincher. you can say what dayne is or isnt worth a 5th rounder, but honestly, which other runner are you going to take? they all have question marks at that point. personally i think he has alot of upside for a 5th rounder.

By the 5th round, I should have already secured my two starting rbs and possibly a backup. I much rather get an upgrade at a starting QB/TE/WR spot than buy a lotto ticket. Shockey over Dayne... you bet

What backup runner have you already secured?? I cant see the other being someone with half the potential as Dayne and also, your wasting an earlier pick than you would if you select Dayne a round or two later.

[thriftyrocker]

In a redraft, I think I would rather have Benson, Foster, and Addai than Dayne, and all those guys typically go around Rd 5. There are a lot of backs with high ceilings you can get in Rd 5. I don't think Dayne will carry your team like potentially Benson could if Jones is sent packing or like Addai could if he wins the job. I am definitely taking Dayne if he's there in the 7th or later, but I don't forsee him doing appreciably better than Anderson did last year.