Here is a list of 25 RB's of interest in regard to the number of touches they have received and possible wear they have taken over the years. Things that jumped out at me: Edges, SA's, Ladanian's, Portis' and Barber's heavy work loads over the last 3 years. Sjax lack of touches to this point in his carreer. Fred Taylor's and DD's surprisingly high amount of touches over the last 3 years, considering their label as injury risks. Westbrooks pathetic lack of touches over the last 3 years (considering how high he gets drafted).
Ladanian Tomlinson:991---1702 (averaged 398 total touches over last 3 years)
Shaun Alexander:1049---1717 (averaged 376 total touches over last 3 years)
Larry Johnson:476---476 (237 in last 9 games= 26 carries/game)
Tiki Barber:957---1889 (averages 377 total touches over last 3 years)
Clinton Portis:985---1258 (averaged 364 total touches, last 3 years)
Edge James:1004---2188 (averaged 383 total touches, last 3 years)
Rudi Johnson:913---930 (averaged 319 total touches, last 3 years)
Warrick Dunn:670---1970 (averaged 255 total touches, last 3 years)
Willis McGahee:609---609 (averaged 330 total touches, last 2 years)
Steven Jackson: 388---388 (averaged 225 total touches, last 2 years)
Corey Dillon: 692---2419 (averaged 242 total touches, last 3 years)
Jamal Lewis: 891---1508 (averaged 320 total touches, last 3 years)
Fred Taylor: 799---1831 (averaged 299 total touches, last 3 years)
Dom Davis: 770---770 (averages 257 carries/year, 308 total touches/year)
Brian Westbrook :450---496 (Averages 150 carries/year over last 3 years, AVG's 207 total touches/ year over last 3 years)
Cadillac Williams: 310 total touches last year
Ronnie Brown: 239 total touches last year
Lamont Jordan: 342 total touches last year
Julius Jones:454---454 292 total touches last year
Kevin Jones:427---427 (averaged 238 total touches, last 2 years)
Willie Parker: 273 total touches last year
Reuban Drougns: (averaged 328 total touches, last 2 years)
Curtis Martin:914---3518 (averaged 340 total touches over last 3 years)
Deshaun Foster: 377---377 (averaged 149 total touches over last 3 years)
Thomas Jones: 691---1053 averaged 266 total touches over last 3 years)
Wouldn't touches per game be more important? I mean, lets say a RB was injured for an entire year two years ago, but get 500 touches each of the other two years. Your stats are going to be very misleading in such a case.
Yes, I agree that touches per game is important, for example, LJ's 26 carries/game last year is huge if he continues to get that many touches/game (400+/year). My main purpose was mostly looking at how much they have been used, and how that might lead to a break down this year. People propose that RB's decline at 30. I have a feeling it has more to do with the wear-and-tear on their bodies over the years. One such person is Tiki. He has comparable numbers of carries to LT and SA, and less than Edge, so I don't look at him as that much of a risk of declining this year.
Then I just statrted listing everybody I found interesting, for comparisons sake. I do believe that the average of touches over the last 3 years is a good indication of usage/injury risk for an individual. I think DD, Fred Taylor, SJAX, Westbrooks and Fosters averages over the last 3 years are very telling, that is, DD and Taylor will get their carries, despite the belief that they are injury risks. There is no reason to believe Foster and Westbrook will garner enough touches to be of value, especially, in Westbrooks case, considering where he is being drafted (a 2nd-3rd rounder only touching the ball 207 times!). The fact that SJax has touched the ball so few times and put up respectable numbers leads me to believe he could have a breakout year, his year, if his workload increases to 300+ touches.
chchelse wrote:There is no reason to believe Foster and Westbrook will garner enough touches to be of value, especially, in Westbrooks case, considering where he is being drafted (a 2nd-3rd rounder only touching the ball 207 times!).
I'm glad you mentioned thoe two guys, b/c what you're saying is a prime example how these stats are misleading. Both of those guys have missed signifcant time in the past 3 years due to both injuries and being in RBBCs. Their numbers are much more misleading than most.
When you factor his touches per game, Westbrook over a full season projects to 248.4 touches a year, and that's using stats from when he was in a 3-way RB. His touches average over 16 games would be 298.88 if you count since he became the starter. Considering his yard per touch average over his career 5.87, so if he stayed healthy he should based on averages get somewhere near 1756 total yards, you can see why he gets taken where he does. Yes, he's an injury risk, but when healthy, he's pretty much a lock to average 100-120 yards per game.
Foster you're forgetting that he played a whopping 4 games two years ago. Missing 3/4 of the season will certainly cut down on your total touches over the past 3 years. Using his touches per game instead, over 16 games Foster should see the ball 216.24 times, and mind you that's not account for him having been in a RBBC and not being the featured back really ever with Davis there. Of course, with DeAngelo Williams, its a legit concern that Foster will get replaced, and like Westbrook his injury concerns are legit reasons to worry, but his lack of touches wouldn't concern me if I believed he'll keep the starting job. Fosters touches nearly double last year from when Stephen Davis was the starter, now with Davis completely done, Foster will get even more than the ~240 touches in 15 games he did last year if he can keep his job all year.