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How could anyone rate LJ ahead Alexander?

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How could anyone rate LJ ahead Alexander?

Postby Dude_202 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:18 pm

I've seen many people who have Larry Johnson ahead of Alexander. How is that possible? First of all, Larry Johnson did have a monster season last year, but he has yet to carry a full load for a whole year. In his 9 straight 100-yard games, that was in the second half of the season where defenses were tired and he still had fresh legs. Who knows if he can hold up after a full year of starting.

Second, many people say that the loss of Hutchinson will affect Alexander greatly. Alexander might lose some production but we have to look at Johnson's line too. Even though all of his linemen returned, they are still an aging injured weary group. The entire Chief's line average 32 years of age.

Third, I like SA's coaching situation better than LJ's. SA didn't lose anybody on his coaching staff while LJ lost his head coach and his OC.

Lastly, you have to compare SA's schedule to LJ's. The NFC west has crap run defense compared to the AFC west. Also, come fantasy playoff time (week 14 & 15) SA faces the Cardinals & 49ers while LJ faces the Ravens and the Chargers on the road. We all know who has the advantage here.

Do you guys have any rebuttals? I feel like participating in a good discussion.
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Postby aaawall91 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:53 pm

Well theres many other things to take into account. 1) We dont know for a fact that LJ cant do that all year, something we will wait and see. 2) The Madden Cover, i do belive in it as do many others, some dont, thats your/their choice i wont say your wrong either way. but if the poast has shown us anything the cover star will struggle. 3) SA just had a monstreus season, and when players ahve those season they always have a drop in stats the procedding year. 4) His team lost the Super Bowl Game, when teams lose the superbowl game the next year the team struggles quite a bit of the time, and this might affect SA. 5) Obviolsy league type, if its re-deaft you can go either way, but if its dynasty keeper LJ is the better choice (IMO). 6) Edwards, the new KC coach, is determined to build on what LJ did last year and give him even more carries, because although the line is old they are one of the if not the best lines in the NFL (along with seattles even with the lost of Hutch they are still dominate) 7) Johnson is a good pass catcher which is a factor 8) Johnson simply has more upside than what SA has, weve seen SA at his best so far, but weve only had a small sample of what LJ can do.9) wasnt last year a contract year for SA?. I could make a case for SA being the better choice as well...main factor is is piece of cake scehdule.
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Postby RocketsDWM » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:54 pm

But what about the curse? ;-7 (sarcasm)
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Postby terpfan » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:06 pm

Just looking at the raw numbers its easy to see why so many people rank LJ #1 (or atleast before Shaun).

(according to NFL.com)
Larry Johnson
16 games played, 9 started

1750 yards rushing, 20 TDs, 5.2 YPC
33 catches, 343 yards receiving, 1 TD

2093 total yards, 21 TDs


Shaun Alexander
1880 yards rushing, 28 TDs, 5.1 YPC
15 catches, 78 yards receiving, 1 TD

1958 total yards, 29 TDs


So, in 7 fewer games started Larry Johnson had about 150 more yards (Shaun's lack of receiving yards is a big issue thats often overlooked I think) with 8 fewer TDs. LJ also had twice as many catches if you are in a PPR. Prorate LJ's numbers over an entire season and he easily passes Alexander. Of course, whether LJ could possibly maintain that pace is questionable, probably unliklely, but if he even comes close he would still be the #1 RB without question.

Now, obviously there is more to take into account than just numbers. But I see the outside factors to be a wash.

LJ:
- OC Al Saunders leaves for Washington.
- FB Tony Richardson leaves for Minnesota.

SA:
- OG Steve Hutcinson leaves for Minnesota.
- Madden jinx... I dont want to believe, but sometimes...


I think what it boils down to is people look at LJ and they see a younger Priest Holmes. You can't help but think back to what Priest did in his prime in Kansas City. And I think Johnson is probably a more talented runner. So while I myself am not even totally decided on the issue, there is your argument for LJ over Alexander. And I think its a compelling one.
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Re: How could anyone rate LJ ahead Alexander?

Postby maddog60 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:11 pm

Dude_202 wrote:Second, many people say that the loss of Hutchinson will affect Alexander greatly. Alexander might lose some production but we have to look at Johnson's line too. Even though all of his linemen returned, they are still an aging injured weary group. The entire Chief's line average 32 years of age.


Hutch was only the top rated FA this off-season overall, and pretty much considered the #1 at his position. Yeah, that couldn't possibly hurt, especially not when you look at how much more productive Alexander was running to the left (Hutch + Jones).

The Chiefs still have 4 of their 5 starts returning, and the two likely future Hall of Famers, Roaf and Shields, returning.
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Postby Free Bagel » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:13 pm

The title of this post is asinine and ridiculous. If you want to argue that you think SA should be ranked higher, that's fine. But to state utter surprise in people having LJ ranked higher is crazy, and I'll explain why.

People like you are stuck in the same trap that LT #1 overall supporters were stuck in last year. You are (wrongly) assuming that the difference in numbers between the two is negligible, so the "safer" play outweighs that "negligible" difference.

In short, this is wrong and the difference is far from negligible. How do you think Alexander compares to Thomas Jones in ppg average last year when they started? Would you be shocked if I told you that the difference between those two was nearly the same as the difference between LJ and SA?

Alexander averaged 22 points per start this past year. Jones averaged a bit over 13 points per start, 9 points difference. LJ on the other hand averaged 30 points per start, an 8 point difference between him and SA. As another example, Rudi averaged 16 points per start. The difference between LJ and SA in ppg is greater than the difference between SA and Rudi.

This is the same thing I pointed out last year using KC RB, LT, and Warrick Dunn (or Fred Taylor, or Rudi Johnson, or countless others). Don't get caught assuming that these two guys ceilings or even their past production are the same.

If you feel more comfortable with SA then LJ that's fine. But claiming that people shouldn't even think about LJ is as ridiculous as people saying that people shouldn't consider Rudi over SA because their numbers are similar and Rudi is in a more stable situation without losing a pro-bowl lineman, because really in terms of ppg Rudi is closer to SA than SA is to LJ.
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Postby eaglesrule » Sun Jul 09, 2006 8:44 pm

well honestly, I think that pro-rating stats is sometimes dangerous business.

I think Johnson is probably an exception here, as he has been around for a bit. But, at the same time, let's see how he does after he gets beat up a bit. I think McGahee is a good lesson here, if not as pronounced or as important.
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Postby michaelavelli » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:00 pm

terpfan wrote:Just looking at the raw numbers its easy to see why so many people rank LJ #1 (or atleast before Shaun).

(according to NFL.com)
Larry Johnson
16 games played, 9 started

1750 yards rushing, 20 TDs, 5.2 YPC
33 catches, 343 yards receiving, 1 TD

2093 total yards, 21 TDs


Shaun Alexander
1880 yards rushing, 28 TDs, 5.1 YPC
15 catches, 78 yards receiving, 1 TD

1958 total yards, 29 TDs


So, in 7 fewer games started Larry Johnson had about 150 more yards (Shaun's lack of receiving yards is a big issue thats often overlooked I think) with 8 fewer TDs. LJ also had twice as many catches if you are in a PPR. Prorate LJ's numbers over an entire season and he easily passes Alexander. Of course, whether LJ could possibly maintain that pace is questionable, probably unliklely, but if he even comes close he would still be the #1 RB without question.

Now, obviously there is more to take into account than just numbers. But I see the outside factors to be a wash.

LJ:
- OC Al Saunders leaves for Washington.
- FB Tony Richardson leaves for Minnesota.

SA:
- OG Steve Hutcinson leaves for Minnesota.
- Madden jinx... I dont want to believe, but sometimes...


I think what it boils down to is people look at LJ and they see a younger Priest Holmes. You can't help but think back to what Priest did in his prime in Kansas City. And I think Johnson is probably a more talented runner. So while I myself am not even totally decided on the issue, there is your argument for LJ over Alexander. And I think its a compelling one.


These numbers are a bit mis-leading.

You took his numbers from the entire season and made it look like he got them in the 9 games he started - which, obviously, is not true since he put up decent numbers while in the 2:1 platoon with Holmes.

His numbers are still impressive (and I don't mean to say you were misleading on purpose), but his actual numbers in his STARTS were:

261 carries - 1,351 yards 16 TD's
27 receptions - 276 yards, 1 TD

1,627 total yards, 17 TD's (about 400 yards and 4 TD's less than the totals stated above)
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Postby disgruntledjetsfan » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:02 pm

Again, I can completely understand why someone would take Shaun Alexander first. He is the most consistent back in football. However, the upside with Larry Johnson, IMO, is just too much to overlook. It is true he has never played a full season, but I'm not going to go with the safest pick here (alexander), when it seems as though Larry Johnson could potentially go for 2200 total yards and 30 TDs this year.
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Postby Free Bagel » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:11 pm

michaelavelli wrote:These numbers are a bit mis-leading.

You took his numbers from the entire season and made it look like he got them in the 9 games he started - which, obviously, is not true since he put up decent numbers while in the 2:1 platoon with Holmes.

His numbers are still impressive (and I don't mean to say you were misleading on purpose), but his actual numbers in his STARTS were:

261 carries - 1,351 yards 16 TD's
27 receptions - 276 yards, 1 TD

1,627 total yards, 17 TD's (about 400 yards and 4 TD's less than the totals stated above)


Again, taking ONLY the games he started in as you requested he averaged 8 more ppg than Alexander did. And again, that is almost the same difference than the difference between Alexander and TJ last year, and is a larger difference than the one between SA and Rudi.
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