michaelavelli wrote:These numbers are a bit mis-leading.
You took his numbers from the entire season and made it look like he got them in the 9 games he started - which, obviously, is not true since he put up decent numbers while in the 2:1 platoon with Holmes.
His numbers are still impressive (and I don't mean to say you were misleading on purpose), but his actual numbers in his STARTS were:
1,627 total yards, 17 TD's (about 400 yards and 4 TD's less than the totals stated above)
Again, taking ONLY the games he started in as you requested he averaged 8 more ppg than Alexander did. And again, that is almost the same difference than the difference between Alexander and TJ last year, and is a larger difference than the one between SA and Rudi.
Sure - like I said, numbers still are very impressive, I was more trying to prevent a statistical misconception is all.
michaelavelli wrote:These numbers are a bit mis-leading.
You took his numbers from the entire season and made it look like he got them in the 9 games he started - which, obviously, is not true since he put up decent numbers while in the 2:1 platoon with Holmes.
His numbers are still impressive (and I don't mean to say you were misleading on purpose), but his actual numbers in his STARTS were:
It also comes down to who has more to prove? Shaun set the NFL rushing record for Touchdowns last season, you think he is looking to break his record this year? On the other hand, Larry is STILL going to run with a chip on his shoulder, and that my friends is a scary thought. And it isn't like Herm is going to not give the ball to his biggest playmaker, remember Curtis Martin outbeat Alexander by 1 yard two years ago, that proves the ball will be running once again in KC. Losing Richardson is a blow to Larry, but losing an All-Pro guard which many would argue the best guard in the league....now that is a major blow.
Whatever ... I'll take SA at 3 anyday and laugh all the way to the bank. LJ, while obviously an incredible talent, and a God-like upside, lost Saunders, Vermeil, has an aging OL, has to take the full-load, will now be prepared for, and just isn't proven yet (for a full season).
Even if Shaun has a BAD year, which I doubt (SEA got better through the air with a healthier Warrick and new-add Burleson, meaning teams have to respect the pass), he'll still rack up 20+ TDs.
It's just amazing that the YEAR after a RB breaks the TD record, he isn't the concensus #1 pick. I realize LJ's upside is better ... but I like SA right where he is ... #1.
With 370 carries in 2005 and 353 carries in 2004, that is just too much abuse. As the article pointed about, Martin's 2004 carries were dangerously high, and even the iron-man had a breakdown.
I need my RB to start the season with the best chance to end the season. Impossible to predict, but there are indicators such as the above that can have an influence. If Alexander "falls" to me outside of the top 3, I jump on him and don't look back. But if I am picking 1 or 2, I might be inclinded to take LJ or LT2 since in my mind they are all about the same value.
no1cowboysfan wrote:Whatever ... I'll take SA at 3 anyday and laugh all the way to the bank. LJ, while obviously an incredible talent, and a God-like upside, lost Saunders, Vermeil, has an aging OL, has to take the full-load, will now be prepared for, and just isn't proven yet (for a full season).
Even if Shaun has a BAD year, which I doubt (SEA got better through the air with a healthier Warrick and new-add Burleson, meaning teams have to respect the pass), he'll still rack up 20+ TDs.
It's just amazing that the YEAR after a RB breaks the TD record, he isn't the concensus #1 pick. I realize LJ's upside is better ... but I like SA right where he is ... #1.
I don't see how you can say he'll rack up 20+ TDs in a "bad" year considering that he's put up 20+ once in his career and he's 29 years old and his situation has gotten slightly worse this offseason rather than better. Record breaking players generally see their numbers the next year fall off drastically, especially with regard to touchdowns. It should also be noted that Alexander's worst year of his career was the year that Hutchinson missed 12 games.
I could easily see him regress to his mean of around 15 TDs (which is still damn good), and a "bad" year could be even less.
I'll worry about LJ's line next season. Right now, they're all back. Edwards if anything is going to run him more, per game.
I'm not worried about Alexander getting injured because he rarely takes a direct shot, but at 29, and with the number of carries, I'd say they are about equal for injury risk.
AS far as the carry trhe load argument, I'd be willing to listen to that, but I don't think anything right now suggests that LJ can't do that. He's big enough, that's for sure.
With 370 carries in 2005 and 353 carries in 2004, that is just too much abuse. As the article pointed about, Martin's 2004 carries were dangerously high, and even the iron-man had a breakdown.
I need my RB to start the season with the best chance to end the season. Impossible to predict, but there are indicators such as the above that can have an influence. If Alexander "falls" to me outside of the top 3, I jump on him and don't look back. But if I am picking 1 or 2, I might be inclinded to take LJ or LT2 since in my mind they are all about the same value.
Interesting read, although I'm not sure some of the conclusions made are consistently successful. For example, this article written before the '05 season, while it's TRUE that it had Martin "red flagged" because of the number of carries he had in '04 (371), it also had Rudi Johnson flagged for the same reason (361 carries in '04). It doesn't seem to acknowledge that Martin was 32 years old and Rudi is much younger.
In fact a number of players mentioned here as having dangerously high rushing todals in '04 went on to have great 05's - Alexander, LT, James, Barber, and Portis among them.
I also found this interesting:
"From 1995 to 2003, there have been 15 players that have carried the ball more than 360 times in a season. Only 3 of them increased their number of carries in the following season."
This is mentioned in the context of suggesting that a player with 360+ carries in a season is "tired" from those carries the following year, and thus is very unlikely to improve their numbers. The way I look at it, if a guy is getting handed the rock 360+ times in a season, he's probably having a career year - which, by definition, is hard to duplicate (never mind IMPROVE on), the following season.
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by michaelavelli » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:53 pm 
