michaelavelli wrote:In an attempt to get this thread back to a debate and away from a pissing contest, which can sometime happen in the midst of a debate, can we start talking some actual numbers and projections here?
For example, Tiki in in 2005 2,390 total yards and 11 total TD's.
LaMont - 1,685 11 TDs
S. Jax - 1,456 10 TDs
R. Johnson - 1,540 12 TDs
I'm just not sure how you can project a drop-off of 700-800 total yards on this guy because he's a "year older". You can show me statistics all day about RB's over 30, at some point, you have to acknowledge that some guys are exceptions to the rules - and it doesn't hurt when that guy wasn't a feature back his entire career.
Of Tiki's 9 rushing TD's last season, they were runs of:
yards. basically this guy scored from all over the field INCLUDING inside the 5 yard line.
add this into the fact that Tiki is a 3 down RB because of his receiving ability (unlike a guy like Tiki), and i just can't see dropping him off THIS much.
so what i'd like to see from the tiki-dissentors is some numbers - you think tiki should go after jax, jordan, rudi, ronnie? that's fine, let's see the projections. it's easy to say that everyone's idea of tiki is way off without showing your predictions for all the guys you are screaming to be taken ahead of him.
This is a good post. Tiki scored inside the 5 when Jacobs was either hurt or in the dog house. Or both. He didn't even get one carry in one of those games. I had him on one of my teams and do remember him being injured for a few games. Perhaps that was the case. Either way, you can clearly see that the Giants don't intent to give Tiki the ball inside the five. This is scary bc as Tiki gets older and slower, he won't be breaking those long TD runs. With all this emphasis on training for power, I could see Tiki losing even more speed than the average 31 year old. I remember reading about Curtis Martin training by running up and down a long set of tall stairs for the 2004 season. I'd much rather Tiki be doing that than squatting 650 lbs if Tiki was on my team.
I don't have my projections at home, but I do know that I've got Tiki, Jordan, and Jackson all with around 320 carries. It is widely known that both Oakland and St.Louis plan to run the ball more but I figured 320 was conservative enough. Jordan and Jackson both have higher ypc than last year while I knocked Tiki's down. I just don't see anymore 95 yd runs for ole Tiki. Both Jordan and Jackson have more TD's than Tiki. I think I gave Jackson somewhere around 13 +/- 1 and Jordan about 10. I only have Tiki down for 5. Jordan had 70 receptions last year and Jackson will now be the 3rd down back w/Faulk out of the picture. I don't see Tiki running away with the receptions title between the three of them. If anything, Tiki has the disadvantage there.
So, while I don't have my exact projections here, it sounds as though everything aside from TD's will be similar but I feel that my upgrades for Jordan and Jackson were conservative, I also feel that my downgrades for Tiki were conservative. If Tiki has lost a step after the long season and the post season, then his numbers could fall considerably. If Linehan is serious about giving Jackson 25 carries/game then Jackson's numbers could explode. If Shell is able to gel Oakland's talented O-line then Jordan could jump into the top 5 easily. As you can see, it is not just about projections, but the ceilings of the players you are drafting, that is important. Speaking of high ceilings, D.Davis was the #6 RB in 2004 with just 15 games played. Now that the offense has improved, there is no reason he can't bounce back into the top 5 mix other than his own health. He is a player I would monitor closely in the offseason. Even if healthy, he'll likely slide to the 2nd round. He could almost single-handedly save your team if you draft Tiki and he busts.