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On the verge of WW3?

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Postby bagobonez » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:57 am

Redskins Win wrote:
SniperShot wrote:I think Lebanon could use a good civil war to sort their crap out. Ever since whatshisname got car bombed a while back things have not looked good for them.

And no the US doesn't need to get involved in a Lebanon civil war. Sometimes I just wish we could let other countries do their thing. But noooo as soon as anything "bad" happens we have to go in and fix it for them. Which usually just makes things worse.


Just think how much the price of lebanese bologna will sky rocket O:-)


haha... i love it when people don't take this crap too seriously, even though it needs to be taken seriously. a sense of humor is always good. ;-D
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Postby Redskins Win » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:09 am

bagobonez wrote:
Redskins Win wrote:
SniperShot wrote:I think Lebanon could use a good civil war to sort their crap out. Ever since whatshisname got car bombed a while back things have not looked good for them.

And no the US doesn't need to get involved in a Lebanon civil war. Sometimes I just wish we could let other countries do their thing. But noooo as soon as anything "bad" happens we have to go in and fix it for them. Which usually just makes things worse.


Just think how much the price of lebanese bologna will sky rocket O:-)


haha... i love it when people don't take this crap too seriously, even though it needs to be taken seriously. a sense of humor is always good. ;-D

Don't get me wrong i think this is very serious issue. the middle east is a whacky place with a bunch of folks with really bad tempers. but i didn't want to get into semantics of right and wrong. I like lebanese bologna it's like genoa salami, which is also yummy ;-D
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Postby Twisted Sister » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:27 pm

For the record, I mentioned it before Newt Gingrich - Is Newt reading our forum????
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July 15, 2006

Gingrich says it's World War III

Posted by David Postman at 12:54 PM

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich says America is in World War III and President Bush should say so. In an interview in Bellevue this morning Gingrich said Bush should call a joint session of Congress the first week of September and talk about global military conflicts in much starker terms than have been heard from the president.

"We need to have the militancy that says 'We're not going to lose a city,' " Gingrich said. He talks about the need to recognize World War III as important for military strategy and political strategy.

Gingrich said he is "very worried" about Republicans facing fall elections and says the party must have the "nerve" to nationalize the elections and make the 2006 campaigns about a liberal Democratic agenda rather than about President Bush's record.
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Postby Twisted Sister » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:37 am

Great, more fuel to the fire:

-----------------
Al Qaeda: War with Israel is 'jihad'
Says Arab and Islamic governments complicit; Muslims must fight

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -- Al Qaeda's No. 2 leader issued a worldwide call Thursday for Muslims to rise up in a holy war against Israel and join the fighting in Lebanon and Gaza until Islam reigns from "Spain to Iraq."

In a taped message broadcast by Al-Jazeera television, Ayman al-Zawahiri said the terrorist organization would not stand idly by while "these (Israeli) shells burn our brothers.

"All the world is a battlefield open in front of us," said the Egyptian-born al-Zawahiri, second-in-command to Osama bin Laden.

"The war with Israel does not depend on cease-fires ... . It is a Jihad for the sake of God and will last until (our) religion prevails ... from Spain to Iraq," al-Zawahiri said. "We will attack everywhere." Spain was controlled by Arab Muslims until they were driven from the country at the turn of the 16th century.

Al-Zawahiri declared that Arab regimes were complicit in Israeli fighting against Hezbollah and the Palestinians.

"My fellow Muslims, it is obvious that Arab and Islamic governments are not only impotent but also complicit...and you are alone on the battlefield. Rely on God and fight your enemies...make yourselves martyrs."

Al-Zawahiri wore a gray robe and white turban. A picture of the burning World Trade Center was on the wall behind him along with photos of two other militants. One appeared to be a bearded Mohammed Atta, the Egyptian ringleader of the September 11, 2001, attacks. The other was Mohammed Atef, also known as Abu Hafs al-Masri, a former top lieutenant of bin Laden who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Afghanistan in November 2001.

Al Qaeda broadcasts are thought to contain coded messages to members. Three of images on the screen -- that of al-Zawahiri and the pictures of al-Masri and what was believed to be Atta -- were Egyptian.

The Arab satellite broadcaster did not transmit the entire tape, using instead selected quotes interspersed with commentary from an anchor.

"The shells and rockets ripping apart Muslim bodies in Gaza and Lebanon are not only Israeli (weapons), but are supplied by all the countries of the crusader coalition. Therefore, every participant in the crime will pay the price," al-Zawahiri said.

The message was al-Zawahiri's tenth this year. Bin Laden has issued five messages in a particularly active year of messages from the top al Qaeda leadership.

"We cannot just watch these shells as they burn our brothers in Gaza and Lebanon and stand by idly, humiliated," al-Zawahiri said.

Al-Zawahiri last appeared in a video posted on an Islamic Web site on the one-year anniversary of the train bombings in London. In the July 7 tape, he said two of the four suicide bombers in London spent time in an al Qaeda training camp, preparing themselves for a suicide mission.

Top al Qaeda leaders paid tribute in June to the slain leader of their Iraq network, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, in separate video recordings. Many of their messages this year have dealt with current events in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia.

Bin Laden message expected
Another new audio or video message from bin Laden was also expected in the coming days and was planned to deal with Gaza and Lebanon, according to IntelCenter. The U.S.-based independent group provides counterterrorism information to the U.S. government and media.

Al Qaeda's media production wing, Al-Sahab, announced the al-Zawahiri tape would be ready soon in a message Thursday on and Islamic Web site.

Al-Zawahiri said Muslims everywhere must rise up to attack "crusaders and Zionists ... and support jihad (holy war) everywhere...until American troops are chased from Afghanistan and Iraq, paralyzed and impotent...having paid the price for aggression against Muslims and support for Israel."

Israel began an offensive on Gaza days after Palestinian militants captured an Israeli soldier on June 25. It opened a second front in Lebanon after Hezbollah guerrillas abducted two Israeli soldiers on July 12.

Since fighting began between Israel and Hezbollah, at least 424 people have been killed in Lebanon, according to figures compiled from the Health Ministry, military and Hezbollah. Fifty-one Israelis have been killed, including 33 members of the military, according to Israeli authorities.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press.
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Postby knapplc » Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:19 am

WWIII? Not yet, despite what Al Qaeda says.

I think it's still possible this could blow up into a huge clusterpuck, but in order for that to happen some heavy hitters from the Middle East are going to have to get involved - notably Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and possibly Egypt. At this point it doesn't make sense for any of these guys to take up arms. If they did they stand to lose a lot more than they stand to gain, like autonomy, stability and anything resembling an infrastructure for their countries.

Iran wants to be a Big Boy on the world scene, but crazy as they may sound they're not stupid - they're not going to engage in some roll-of-the-dice armed conflict when they know every developed nation in the world would ally to squash them rather than let them threaten the world's oil supply. Iran's military is not very advanced, with the possible exception of their Air Force, which is decent for the region but falls far behind major military powers such as those of the G8. Iran's military is also chronically short of supplies and training, which compels them to seek alternative means of fighting like chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. They are known to have and to have used the first two, but the so far they are not believed to have nuclear weapons.

Saudi Arabia is getting wealthy off the world's oil addiction and has no reason to stop doing so. They have no lack of oil at home and have no reason to go abroad for more. They are “allies” of the U.S. and will follow our lead overtly – covertly it’s suspected (probably for good reason) that they support paramilitary organizations. They'll stay put and stay out of this.

Syria is a weird country - they have no major oil interests, but they also haven't got a snowball's chance in hell of taking over any from any of their neighbors (for the same reason as Iran and because their military just isn't up to the task even in a regional conflict). They like to support the small groups harassing Israel like Hezbollah, but they're never going to openly go to war with Israel again unless the WHOLE M.E. is backing them - bordering Israel they stand to lose the most when the Israelis strike back. Syria will stay a behind-the-scenes supporter of the Hezbollahs of the region but they won't take up arms again.

Jordan is desert, has no military to be concerned about and borders Israel. They won't do anything for the same reasons as Syria.

Lebanon is obviously in no position to do anything to anyone - they can't even stop a paramilitary group like Hezbollah from operating within their borders. Lebanon is the low man on the Middle East totem pole.

Egypt is a non-factor except diplomatically for the foreseeable future. Without an overthrow of their government there's not going to be any action from south of the Sinai. That peace deal between Egypt and Israel really seems to be holding nearly 30 years later, and I for one am very impressed and very hopeful still that this could be a model for the rest of the M.E.

Israel, alone, could kick the crap out of any three nations in the M.E. right now, with the possible exception of Iran. Iran could seriously bloody the nose of Israel, and could pose significant military problems to Israel based on the size of their armed forces alone, but Israel’s U.S.-backed military is the penultimate armed force in the region and would in the opinion of most observers, be able to repulse any attack from any nation, including many lodged by major G8 powers. Don’t bother looking for Israeli military defeats at the hands of Arab nations – there aren’t any. Beginning with Israel’s inception in 1948 they have fought and defeated several coalitions of Arab nations single-handedly, mostly against vastly overwhelming forces in foreign territory. Israel’s military is not to be messed with, and that’s not likely to change soon.

That leaves the paramilitary groups like Hezbollah, al Qaeda, various Palestinian groups and the like. While these organizations are dedicated to the destruction of Israel, they have about as much chance of succeeding as a high school team has of beating the Raiders. While annoying and public, the kinds of attacks they are able to execute are not remotely threatening to the sovereignty of a nation. It’s a concern that they’ll somehow acquire WMD and use that against their enemies, but again this would represent a bloody nose, not a fatal blow.

However, the likelihood of these groups acquiring these kinds of WMD is actually not all that great. It takes a great deal of effort to develop and produce chemical, biological and/or nuclear weapons. They are as hard to deliver effectively as they are to make, and they are just as likely to blow up in the faces of those who would use them as anything, even with proper training and procedures. What this means is that to acquire these kinds of weapons these groups would have to purchase them or have them donated to them by a large, well-funded nation. Large, well-funded nations who could possibly develop these weapons are not likely to give them to organizations they cannot control for several reasons – they are traceable (meaning recrimination from the victim), these organizations are uncontrollable (meaning that these weapons could end up parked in the backyard of the nation who provided them if they piss off the crazy organization they’ve given it to) and they would likely not result in the desired effect anyway, namely the destruction of the enemy.

So, while there is a great reason to be concerned about the death and destruction happening over there at the moment, it’s not really much more of a concern now than it usually is. Don’t hit the panic button quite yet.
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Postby Twisted Sister » Thu Jul 27, 2006 11:50 am

Good analysis, I agree with most of what you said... however, I disagree with this one:

Iran wants to be a Big Boy on the world scene, but crazy as they may sound they're not stupid - they're not going to engage in some roll-of-the-dice armed conflict when they know every developed nation in the world would ally to squash them rather than let them threaten the world's oil supply.


Iran is quite dangerous and illogical. Their religious idealism overrides common "political" sense. They realize, seeing North Korea, that once they obtain Nuclear capabilities... the US cannot touch them... so there is an overt arms race. They've been flying in the face of UN demands and making pronouncements about wiping Israel off the map.

The reality is that they will never stop pursuing nuclear weapons... that is clear. There is not a magical political talks/deal that will sway them. So if that is true, there is only one reasonable response from Israel (and perhaps the US)... and it's a preemptive strike. It will happen, Russia and China's response will be a crap shoot. They are strong allies with IRAN and could be drawn in militarily. Putin is an enemy to the US, not an ally - that much is crystal clear.
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Postby PACKman1144 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 12:31 pm

Call me a racist, bigot, profiler, descriminator or whatever, but if it weren't for "radical" Islam the world would be at peace right now. It is a fact.
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Postby Verdun Barbarians » Thu Jul 27, 2006 12:36 pm

PACKman1144 wrote:Call me a racist, bigot, profiler, descriminator or whatever, but if it weren't for "radical" Islam the world would be at peace right now. It is a fact.


Ridiculous.

They are saying the same thing about radical Occidentals...

Israelis, Britishs, Frenchs and Americans are all part of the source of the problem: killing innocent civilians in the proccess of grabbing a hold of the Middle East's ressources... That's a big part of the motivation of radical Islamists. If my parents had been killed by an Israeli or American raid on a civil target, I'd probably turn into a radical myself...
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Postby knapplc » Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:14 pm

Verdun Barbarians wrote:
PACKman1144 wrote:Call me a racist, bigot, profiler, descriminator or whatever, but if it weren't for "radical" Islam the world would be at peace right now. It is a fact.


Ridiculous.

They are saying the same thing about radical Occidentals...

Israelis, Britishs, Frenchs and Americans are all part of the source of the problem: killing innocent civilians in the proccess of grabbing a hold of the Middle East's ressources... That's a big part of the motivation of radical Islamists. If my parents had been killed by an Israeli or American raid on a civil target, I'd probably turn into a radical myself...


Pack, I can’t say I agree with you either. Putting the world’s problems at the feet of radical Islamists is an oversimplification of the problem. Are they a problem? Yes. But then again, so is ANY unwavering ideological system whose central tenet promotes the destruction of some other people, country or belief system.

Verdun, I agree that if my family was hurt by any country I’d have a hard time not wanting to seek vengeance on them. Violence breeds violence, and it’s mating season in the Middle East right now.
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Postby PACKman1144 » Thu Jul 27, 2006 2:37 pm

I really shouldn't of said that. And knwo its oversimplified, but no extrtemists, no 9/11, no 9/11, no war in Iraq. No extremists, no conflict for Israel to get in. No extremists, no global jihad.


The only terror minded people left are the North Koreans and if we didn't have to deal with all these punks then we could focus solely on them... If only Abraham hadn't of had an affair...
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