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Postby Warpigs » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:06 pm

BGbootha wrote:
BGbootha wrote:1. Shaun Alexander - Call me a homer if you want but hear me out. The other two guys have some serious questions that have to be considered when looking at these top three guys. Sure Shaun lost one of the best guards in the game, in Steve Hutchinson but we have to realize he is still running behind one of the best lines in the game and one of the best Fullbacks in the game. Sure the offensive passing game is going to be stronger this year with a healthy wide receiver choir and the addition of Nate Burleson, but that means defenses won't be able to put 8 in the box against the hawks and Shaun should have plenty of room to run those late draws that Holmgreen loves so much.

2. Larry Johnson - A new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and an offensive line quickly turning to the wrong side of 30 years old. LJ has never shown he could handle a full load for 16 solid weeks and it looks like he isn't going ot have the privelidge of getting spelled by one of the best backs ever in Priest Holmes. Of course the numbers that LJ put up during the last half of last year could easily place him on top of this list. IF his aging offensive line can stay healthy, IF his new coaching staff keeps and runs the system that was already in place, and IF LJ can carry a full load, then yeah, he could easily be the number one back, but thats a lot of ifs.

3. LT - Probably the most talented of the group and if your league gives points per receptions than you can through this whole thing out the window. Last year LT, ran, caught and threw a TD in the same game. He is the centerpiece of this offense, and that is the problem. With Phillip Rivers taking over at QB, every defense in thier right mind is going to stack the box full of 7,8 or 9 defenders hoping to stop mr LT from beating them. And until Rivers shows he can handle the pressure and make defenses pay for this, LT is going to be running against a wall every time he touches the ball. Of course like I said earlier, if your league gives a PPR bonus then LT should be your number one pick hands down.

Let me know what you guys think, and lets get some debate on man, so far these debates haven't lived up to thier 'great' name.



great debates forum, on saturday the 15th......ummm i agreee.


I guess great minds think alike! ;-D
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Postby Warpigs » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:11 pm

MrTwo94 wrote:
onnestabe wrote:Nice article warpigs, I think every point you made was right on ;-D

I think SA is definitely the safer pick, but I would probably take LJ and hope he can overcome all the issues you named, but I like that you called him '1b'. My sentiments, exactly.


If you just said you'd take LJ #1 then why would you call him '1b'? Wouldn't your sentiments be that Alexander is '1b'?

Anyway, the article seemed like a decent summary off all the points made in arguments about the #1 pick. As mentioned, you missed the point about Richardson. Another point people like to bring up is that Saunders is no longer KC's OC. If KC's defense didn't prevent them from running the ball a ton last year, why would it this year? LJ carried the ball 339 times last year. The bulk of that coming in just 9 games. I'm not worried about his ability to play 16 games as the starting RB. The point about D. Jackson getting older is worthless since he was out almost all of last season with a knee injury. And they brought in Burleson. Now that Jackson is back, they can rely less on Alexander. The fact that Alexander had the most touches of his career and played an extra 3 games might be worth mentioning. Some people might even note that Alexander finally got the big contract he was looking for. The portion on Tomlinson seemed almost like an afterthought.


Some people might note that bringing in Burleson and having Jackson around will help open up the running lanes for Alexander. Seriously, I just can't grasp how someone could knock Alexander based on pure speculation. With LJ, there are numerous serious black-and-white concerns/issues. With Alexander, there are a few concerns, but there is no debating that heading into 2006, he's the most reliable/consistent. Isn't that what the person picking first overall wants? No one wants to pick a flop, and I'd take Alexander every time -- and not worry about the secondary "perhaps" concerns like him getting a new contract. Some players slack off after getting fat contracts -- others are class acts and feel that they are obligated even further to perform at an elite level after getting a contract.
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Postby BGbootha » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:21 am

Apparently great minds do think alike. Nice read by the way.
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Postby MrTwo94 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:48 pm

Warpigs wrote:
MrTwo94 wrote:
onnestabe wrote:Nice article warpigs, I think every point you made was right on ;-D

I think SA is definitely the safer pick, but I would probably take LJ and hope he can overcome all the issues you named, but I like that you called him '1b'. My sentiments, exactly.


If you just said you'd take LJ #1 then why would you call him '1b'? Wouldn't your sentiments be that Alexander is '1b'?

Anyway, the article seemed like a decent summary off all the points made in arguments about the #1 pick. As mentioned, you missed the point about Richardson. Another point people like to bring up is that Saunders is no longer KC's OC. If KC's defense didn't prevent them from running the ball a ton last year, why would it this year? LJ carried the ball 339 times last year. The bulk of that coming in just 9 games. I'm not worried about his ability to play 16 games as the starting RB. The point about D. Jackson getting older is worthless since he was out almost all of last season with a knee injury. And they brought in Burleson. Now that Jackson is back, they can rely less on Alexander. The fact that Alexander had the most touches of his career and played an extra 3 games might be worth mentioning. Some people might even note that Alexander finally got the big contract he was looking for. The portion on Tomlinson seemed almost like an afterthought.


Some people might note that bringing in Burleson and having Jackson around will help open up the running lanes for Alexander. Seriously, I just can't grasp how someone could knock Alexander based on pure speculation. With LJ, there are numerous serious black-and-white concerns/issues. With Alexander, there are a few concerns, but there is no debating that heading into 2006, he's the most reliable/consistent. Isn't that what the person picking first overall wants? No one wants to pick a flop, and I'd take Alexander every time -- and not worry about the secondary "perhaps" concerns like him getting a new contract. Some players slack off after getting fat contracts -- others are class acts and feel that they are obligated even further to perform at an elite level after getting a contract.


Yeah, I do think that having more WR options will open up the running lanes for Alexander but your article states that Jackson getting old will mean they'll lean more on Alexander. So which is it? You can't have your cake and eat it, too. If I was you, I'd just remove the whole Jackson comment. He only played 6 games last year. I'd say he will have more of a role this year than last year. I have Alexander in a keeper league. I like the guy, but I've also got LJ in that keeper league, and I like his situation better. Here's an interesting article that I also posted in a thread about Tiki. It doesn't scare me away from Mr.Consistent, but I do expect him to somewhat come back to earth. Tiki and Edge... I won't touch them.

http://footballguys.com/06yudkin_400touches.php

And no, I'm not looking for the safe, consistent pick at #1. I want the guy who is going to put up the #1 numbers. The guy who has a chance at breaking the TD and rushing record. This year, LJ has the best shot at that. You don't want to be the guy that could've had the #1 rusher in NFL history but passed so he could make the safe pick. If LJ busts (unlikely) then at least you know that you sacked up and went for the homerun.
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Postby Warpigs » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:23 pm

MrTwo94 wrote:
Warpigs wrote:
MrTwo94 wrote:
onnestabe wrote:Nice article warpigs, I think every point you made was right on ;-D

I think SA is definitely the safer pick, but I would probably take LJ and hope he can overcome all the issues you named, but I like that you called him '1b'. My sentiments, exactly.


If you just said you'd take LJ #1 then why would you call him '1b'? Wouldn't your sentiments be that Alexander is '1b'?

Anyway, the article seemed like a decent summary off all the points made in arguments about the #1 pick. As mentioned, you missed the point about Richardson. Another point people like to bring up is that Saunders is no longer KC's OC. If KC's defense didn't prevent them from running the ball a ton last year, why would it this year? LJ carried the ball 339 times last year. The bulk of that coming in just 9 games. I'm not worried about his ability to play 16 games as the starting RB. The point about D. Jackson getting older is worthless since he was out almost all of last season with a knee injury. And they brought in Burleson. Now that Jackson is back, they can rely less on Alexander. The fact that Alexander had the most touches of his career and played an extra 3 games might be worth mentioning. Some people might even note that Alexander finally got the big contract he was looking for. The portion on Tomlinson seemed almost like an afterthought.


Some people might note that bringing in Burleson and having Jackson around will help open up the running lanes for Alexander. Seriously, I just can't grasp how someone could knock Alexander based on pure speculation. With LJ, there are numerous serious black-and-white concerns/issues. With Alexander, there are a few concerns, but there is no debating that heading into 2006, he's the most reliable/consistent. Isn't that what the person picking first overall wants? No one wants to pick a flop, and I'd take Alexander every time -- and not worry about the secondary "perhaps" concerns like him getting a new contract. Some players slack off after getting fat contracts -- others are class acts and feel that they are obligated even further to perform at an elite level after getting a contract.


Yeah, I do think that having more WR options will open up the running lanes for Alexander but your article states that Jackson getting old will mean they'll lean more on Alexander. So which is it? You can't have your cake and eat it, too. If I was you, I'd just remove the whole Jackson comment. He only played 6 games last year. I'd say he will have more of a role this year than last year. I have Alexander in a keeper league. I like the guy, but I've also got LJ in that keeper league, and I like his situation better. Here's an interesting article that I also posted in a thread about Tiki. It doesn't scare me away from Mr.Consistent, but I do expect him to somewhat come back to earth. Tiki and Edge... I won't touch them.

http://footballguys.com/06yudkin_400touches.php

And no, I'm not looking for the safe, consistent pick at #1. I want the guy who is going to put up the #1 numbers. The guy who has a chance at breaking the TD and rushing record. This year, LJ has the best shot at that. You don't want to be the guy that could've had the #1 rusher in NFL history but passed so he could make the safe pick. If LJ busts (unlikely) then at least you know that you sacked up and went for the homerun.


So you think that Alexander has more of a chance of "busting" than LJ? On what grounds? Because of Hutchinson leaving? For every knock on Alexander going into 2006, there are three or four for LJ. I'm not saying that LJ doesn't have tons of potential and could be a stud -- but I'll take Alexander any day over LJ simply because Alexander has produced year in and year out. His situation is almost the same as in the past (sans Hutch) and Alexander's numbers have consistently improved over the past three years. I don't think he'll outproduce last year, but he doesn't have to with those numbers to be a safe, secure No. 1 pick. What about LJ's new system, new coach, added workload (being the feature back all season), etc. These are all real variables that need to be considered when selecting your top back. I still think that Alexander has the least hardcore questions surrounding him and you can't overlook that schedule. My grandmother could be a top-ten back playing for Seattle this year. What it boils down to is risk. With LJ you have the elite slugger -- the guy who can really hit it out of the park, but also could strike out. With Alexander you have the consistent hitter with solid batting average, good pop, consistent playing record, etc. LJ's risk/reward is something I'm willing to bypass with the No. 1 overall pick when someone like Alexander is on the board.
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Postby MrTwo94 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:41 pm

Warpigs wrote:So you think that Alexander has more of a chance of "busting" than LJ? On what grounds? Because of Hutchinson leaving? For every knock on Alexander going into 2006, there are three or four for LJ. I'm not saying that LJ doesn't have tons of potential and could be a stud -- but I'll take Alexander any day over LJ simply because Alexander has produced year in and year out. His situation is almost the same as in the past (sans Hutch) and Alexander's numbers have consistently improved over the past three years. I don't think he'll outproduce last year, but he doesn't have to with those numbers to be a safe, secure No. 1 pick. What about LJ's new system, new coach, added workload (being the feature back all season), etc. These are all real variables that need to be considered when selecting your top back. I still think that Alexander has the least hardcore questions surrounding him and you can't overlook that schedule. My grandmother could be a top-ten back playing for Seattle this year. What it boils down to is risk. With LJ you have the elite slugger -- the guy who can really hit it out of the park, but also could strike out. With Alexander you have the consistent hitter with solid batting average, good pop, consistent playing record, etc. LJ's risk/reward is something I'm willing to bypass with the No. 1 overall pick when someone like Alexander is on the board.


Did you read the article? Don't get me wrong, I'm not basing my whole argument on that article, but historically a back coming off such a high workload has seen dramatic decreases in productivity. I can't see that kind of drop of from Alexander, but chances are, neither did the people drafting the guys who have dropped off in the past. So I think they have at least the same chances of "busting" but given their situations, a true "bust" seems highly unlikely. SA has few injuries and as much of a big deal as people like to make out of Hutch, he was still just a guard. So like you said, it boils down to risk, but I think you forgot the other half of that equation... reward. Alexander will almost certainly see a drop off next year, while LJ has the upside to break the rushing record and Alexander's TD record set last year. Just like you said, LJ has a lot of question marks, but they don't necessarily have to be narrowed down to negative or neutral. Some of these things could be positive. Edwards wants to run the ball more. LJ has shown that he can and will stay in the game. It is not hard to imagine him getting 400 carries next season. He averaged like 29/gm for his 9 starts. That would be 464 over a full season.

So anyway, I agree that Alexander has been consistent and has the least amount of changes around him and has the easiset looking schedule (these things can change at the drop of a hat). But historic data says he could very well be in for a rude awakening. But more importantly, you admit that Alexander is likely going to decrease his production. You are playing it conservatively and not going for the home run. I say that with the #1 pick you go for the guy most likely to hit that home run. One of us is laying it on the line to maybe get the guy who breaks the rushing record while the other takes a guy they expect to do worse than last year. Just different philosophies. I like mine better, though.
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Postby Warpigs » Mon Jul 24, 2006 11:24 pm

MrTwo94 wrote:
Warpigs wrote:So you think that Alexander has more of a chance of "busting" than LJ? On what grounds? Because of Hutchinson leaving? For every knock on Alexander going into 2006, there are three or four for LJ. I'm not saying that LJ doesn't have tons of potential and could be a stud -- but I'll take Alexander any day over LJ simply because Alexander has produced year in and year out. His situation is almost the same as in the past (sans Hutch) and Alexander's numbers have consistently improved over the past three years. I don't think he'll outproduce last year, but he doesn't have to with those numbers to be a safe, secure No. 1 pick. What about LJ's new system, new coach, added workload (being the feature back all season), etc. These are all real variables that need to be considered when selecting your top back. I still think that Alexander has the least hardcore questions surrounding him and you can't overlook that schedule. My grandmother could be a top-ten back playing for Seattle this year. What it boils down to is risk. With LJ you have the elite slugger -- the guy who can really hit it out of the park, but also could strike out. With Alexander you have the consistent hitter with solid batting average, good pop, consistent playing record, etc. LJ's risk/reward is something I'm willing to bypass with the No. 1 overall pick when someone like Alexander is on the board.


Did you read the article? Don't get me wrong, I'm not basing my whole argument on that article, but historically a back coming off such a high workload has seen dramatic decreases in productivity. I can't see that kind of drop of from Alexander, but chances are, neither did the people drafting the guys who have dropped off in the past. So I think they have at least the same chances of "busting" but given their situations, a true "bust" seems highly unlikely. SA has few injuries and as much of a big deal as people like to make out of Hutch, he was still just a guard. So like you said, it boils down to risk, but I think you forgot the other half of that equation... reward. Alexander will almost certainly see a drop off next year, while LJ has the upside to break the rushing record and Alexander's TD record set last year. Just like you said, LJ has a lot of question marks, but they don't necessarily have to be narrowed down to negative or neutral. Some of these things could be positive. Edwards wants to run the ball more. LJ has shown that he can and will stay in the game. It is not hard to imagine him getting 400 carries next season. He averaged like 29/gm for his 9 starts. That would be 464 over a full season.

So anyway, I agree that Alexander has been consistent and has the least amount of changes around him and has the easiset looking schedule (these things can change at the drop of a hat). But historic data says he could very well be in for a rude awakening. But more importantly, you admit that Alexander is likely going to decrease his production. You are playing it conservatively and not going for the home run. I say that with the #1 pick you go for the guy most likely to hit that home run. One of us is laying it on the line to maybe get the guy who breaks the rushing record while the other takes a guy they expect to do worse than last year. Just different philosophies. I like mine better, though.


It's easy to focus on the reward side -- and I think that as much as you think I'm overlooking LJ's vs. Alexander's rewards; I think you're just as much overlooking the risks. We've seen Alexander's ceiling, and while it is hard to imagine him having a better season than last year, who's to say he won't? His numbers the past three years logically point to even better numbers this year. We're all saying that Alexander won't eclipse last year's numbers because they were that good. It doesn't seem possible.But that is based on assumption and opinion. Not facts. The facts are -- and I think that these are hard to dispute -- that Alexander is on a better overall team with an easier overall schedule and Alexander has consistently shown over the past three years that he has the ability to improve himself from season to season. Not too many players consistently stay in the top three to four fantasy producers from year to year, but Alexander has done that and only improved from year to year. Will LJ be amazing this year, or will he be a flash in the pan? Personally, I'm banking on Alexander....

To be honest, it would be interesting to see what others are thinking after reading our little debate so far...
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Postby xted30 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:17 am

I like the arguments made for both sides. Personally, I'm praying for the third pick this year. But, if presented with the first pick, I would feel compelled to take... LJ.

I don't have too many doubts about his durability and his aging line doesn't concern me since I play in a redraft league. I think it's true that we've probably just seen the top performance of SA's career. LJ is just getting started and he runs angry. To be perfectly honest, I absolutely was in awe when I watched him single handedly trounce my Bengals last season at the end of the year. He has speed and power and has the ability to be used more in the passing game. I think SA's receiving numbers have been on a decline the past 3 seasons, if I'm not mistaken, and I don't see them taking a dramatic rise, whereas LJ can be used more like what Priest did in the passing game, to some extent. Please don't read that as I think he's the receiving threat Priest was, but I think he may get a few more screens and swing passes thrown his way. And Edwards has said he wants to run more, not less. I think this leads to a monster season for him.

In response, I think LT would be my second pick. I think he will be leaned on more with Rivers being inexperienced. We've all seen how that turned out when Brees was wet behind the ears. He's a threat to break a long one or to catch 3-5 balls a game for 20-40 yds. He gets the tough yards and the goalline carries and can throw around the goalline. I just think SA is the biggest chance for a "bust" out of the top 3. Just my $0.02
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Re: Fantasy Football Column 7/23

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:51 pm

Warpigs wrote:My new "The Daily Item" fantasy football column is officially online and I'd love your feedback. I analyze the top three RB and rank them accordingly -- and it's not the order you may be thinking.

If you disagree, I'd love to debate you right here, right now...

http://www.dailyitem.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ ... /607230308

;-D

WP


No mention of the Super Bowl or Madden Curse? You're playing with fire..

PS- Tomlinson had a pretty bad rib injury sustained in week 13. Coincidence? OR is coincidence that LT has increased his touchdown total over the previous year in every single season he's been in the NFL.
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Postby MrTwo94 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:49 pm

Warpigs wrote:It's easy to focus on the reward side -- and I think that as much as you think I'm overlooking LJ's vs. Alexander's rewards; I think you're just as much overlooking the risks. We've seen Alexander's ceiling, and while it is hard to imagine him having a better season than last year, who's to say he won't? His numbers the past three years logically point to even better numbers this year. We're all saying that Alexander won't eclipse last year's numbers because they were that good. It doesn't seem possible.But that is based on assumption and opinion. Not facts. The facts are -- and I think that these are hard to dispute -- that Alexander is on a better overall team with an easier overall schedule and Alexander has consistently shown over the past three years that he has the ability to improve himself from season to season. Not too many players consistently stay in the top three to four fantasy producers from year to year, but Alexander has done that and only improved from year to year. Will LJ be amazing this year, or will he be a flash in the pan? Personally, I'm banking on Alexander....

To be honest, it would be interesting to see what others are thinking after reading our little debate so far...


Alexander and LJ both had very high ypc (5.1 vs. 5.2, I believe). It is hard to imagine either of them increasing these numbers, especially with SA losing a key lineman (again, I don't think it's that big of a deal, I'm just saying it isn't going to help). SA got 370 carries and a ton of goal line opportunities. It is just hard to imagine these numbers going up. I guess it is possible, but seriously, I doubt it. If we had to guess at which one has a better shot at 400 carries, it would have to be LJ, right? And if he really does get more involved in the passing game, that is just a bonus.

I really believe LJ is the clear cut #1 with a hot debate between SA and LT. I still don't know who I'm going with. LT's ypc has dropped a disturbing amount considering his situation only got better when Brees went from crappy to badass and as Gates emerged and McCardell was brought in. It makes me wonder if something happened. I just can't see him averaging above 5 ypc again with a lesser QB at the helm. And what if Rivers isn't as good at getting him the ball in the air? This could be the first disapponting season for LT.

I'd rather have the #1 pick and take LJ or #6 so I can just take Jackson and hope for D.Davis to get healthy and slip to me in the 2nd round. I really don't want to have to worry about LT or SA. That data about RB's with 400+ touches in a season is quite compelling.
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