Draft Strategy to use with early pick? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Draft Strategy to use with early pick?

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Don't get it

Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Jul 26, 2006 7:30 am

It really depends on the RB...I mean, if you can get an unquestioned starter that you feel will do a good job, then you can go with the RB if you'd like.

Personally, I've seen too many fantasy championships won by guys who "think outside the box" a little and end up with a stud RB, a stud WR, and a random #2 RB and #2-#3 WR that were either huge WW pickups or undervalued players "skillfully" drafted in the later rounds. :-?

What I'm trying to say is even though there are a scarce few RB's to choose from, there are also a scarce few WR's that will put up huge numbers for you as well. If you're to the point where no RB seems like a sure thing, you have to take that top WR.

If people draft "correctly" in a 12 team league, pretty much every pick in the 1st round should be a RB, and maybe 1 or 2 in the second round will do the same. Then the WR's and probably Manning will go after that. When you hit pick 22, you should have a good idea of what to do. If people went RB heavy, you'll be left with RBBC's or ? guys in the RB pool, at which point you take whatever top WR wasn't chosen. If people take all the top WR's, you may have 1 or 2 possibly decent choices at RB which you could go with.

I think 3rd spot will be a very nice place to be this year. Things will clear up for those drafters for the top picks and leave out a lot of guesswork. ;-D
The One, the Only, the Incomparable Mercer Boy.
My My YouTube.
Mercer Boy
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterLucky Ladders ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 12045
Joined: 22 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: New Castle, PA

Re: Don't get it

Postby BrutallyHuge » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:24 am

FFCoppola wrote:I'd be a lot more scared of letting the guy with LT get McGahee or Carnell Williams than Chad Johnson. RB/WR/WR is great, but it's a substitute for as good back if the rest of the draft did a good job and picked over the RB's, hard.


I don't think they'll last that long. Those guys are probably ranked between #10 and #15 in RBs. In a 10 to 12 team draft, these guys both should be gone by the mid-2nd round. More likely, they'll go late 1st/early 2nd.

After Carnell/McGahee/Domanick, there are more question marks. Julius & Westbrook have injury concerns and capable backups (Marion Barber is way better than Moats though). Other guys such as FWP, Jamal, CTaylor, Droughns, and Kevin Jones should not be taken before a stud WR.

The Top 7 WRs (SSmith through Harrison) should be gone by the start of the 3rd Round. I assume someone will draft Peyton by that time as well.

It's a very interesting draft this year. Obviously, the top 3 RBs are head and shoulders above the rest...but you can still pick up value later because of many stud WRs. In past years, there weren't as many good WRs...usually just TO, Moss, Harrison, Holt...Chad emerged in the past few seasons too. Even after the top 7, there is still some great WRs like Randy Moss and Chambers.

If you draft in the late 1st, you can still get 2 solid RBs...like 2 of the following: Ronnie Brown, McGahee, Cadillac, LaMont, Jackson, etc. Once you slip past them and into the FWP, Westbrook, Drougns territory...it's not as pretty. Look for WR next.

To sum up this post:
    If I'm drafting in the Top 3, I'm most likely going WR-WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
    If I'm drafting late in the first, I'm most likely going RB-RB in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
    If I'm drafting in the mid-first, I'm most likely going RB-WR in the 1st and 2nd rounds...you will probably get a stud WR here. But if a solid RB is here, I'm taking him over the WR
BrutallyHuge
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerEagle EyeCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5971
Joined: 21 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Illadelph

Postby whodey#9 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:45 pm

Way to sum it up Brut ;-D
Image
Image
whodey#9
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 3404
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Gone

Postby BALCOBOMBER » Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:34 am

I agree with Brutal!

However, in one mock I was able to get LT then Manning made it back to me thanks to a lengthy wr run in the 2nd, and I got Boldin in the 3rd.

You never know!
BALCOBOMBER
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 858
Joined: 8 Sep 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: SECRET LAB

Re: Draft Strategy to use with early pick?

Postby flotsamnjetsam » Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:44 am

bdt13 wrote:Gang,

Was hoping you could share your thoughts on draft strategy.

I have the #3 pick in a 12 team league. First time I've had a pick this early in the draft and honestly it's throwing off my normal drafting style.

After some mock drafts, I'm thinking the best way to go may be RB WR RB as opposed to RB RB WR in order to still guarantee a good WR and then hope for a decent #2 RB in the third round. (In one draft it went LT, Harrison, J Lewis).

What do you guys think? Obviously based on what players are available this strategy wouldn't be set in stone, but as a general template, is this a good idea?



I didn't read all the responses to your post, but to me the answer is simple. Obviously your pick will be between the last of the big 3 (LT2, LJ, & SA) and maybe Tiki (ppr leagues) or even Portis. Then in the rest of the draft you just have to pick the best player available depending on your scoring system. I really think it's a bad idea to have a set strategy like RB/WR/RB or RB/WR/WR or whatever. Every draft is different and you never know who might fall to you. You might plan on taking a WR in the 2nd but what if a really good RB falls to you there? I never have a set draft strategy beyond the 1st round. I pick a RB in the 1st round and then try to pick the best player available from that point on and taking into consideration the scoring system. Good luck!
Image

Thanks to deluxe_247 for the awesome sig!
flotsamnjetsam
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterGolden Eagle EyeCafe MusketeerTrivia Time Trial ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 17169
(Past Year: 78)
Joined: 12 Oct 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: New York State Of Mind: 18-1

Re: Don't get it

Postby Kilroy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:49 am

Mercer Boy wrote:It really depends on the RB...I mean, if you can get an unquestioned starter that you feel will do a good job, then you can go with the RB if you'd like.

Personally, I've seen too many fantasy championships won by guys who "think outside the box" a little and end up with a stud RB, a stud WR, and a random #2 RB and #2-#3 WR that were either huge WW pickups or undervalued players "skillfully" drafted in the later rounds. :-?

What I'm trying to say is even though there are a scarce few RB's to choose from, there are also a scarce few WR's that will put up huge numbers for you as well. If you're to the point where no RB seems like a sure thing, you have to take that top WR.

If people draft "correctly" in a 12 team league, pretty much every pick in the 1st round should be a RB, and maybe 1 or 2 in the second round will do the same. Then the WR's and probably Manning will go after that. When you hit pick 22, you should have a good idea of what to do. If people went RB heavy, you'll be left with RBBC's or ? guys in the RB pool, at which point you take whatever top WR wasn't chosen. If people take all the top WR's, you may have 1 or 2 possibly decent choices at RB which you could go with.

I think 3rd spot will be a very nice place to be this year. Things will clear up for those drafters for the top picks and leave out a lot of guesswork. ;-D


Could not have said it better.

IMO, the best Draft Strategy is none. No matter how many mocks you do, or how much "experience" you have drafting, until your particular draft starts and players start fallin' there's no real way to know which way to go. The conjecture here (and it's GREAT ;-D conjecture) is worth diddly if your draft goes sideways all of a sudden.

Trust your Rankings, Trust your Gut, And Hope for the Best.
Image

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." -- Voltaire
Kilroy
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 13587
Joined: 6 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Making My List and Checking It Twice...

Postby Retet » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:21 am

Here's another way to think about drafting strategy; it's one that has led me to a lot of success (and some failure) over the years.

Round 1 -- Best RB available
Rounds 2-5 -- I filter each pick through two ideas: (1) regardless of position, which player is likely to score me the most points in my league, and (2) is there any significant,imminent and impending drop off in the quality of players at a particular position.

After round 5: Draft by position, need, and hunch. ;-)

Your answers to these questions should help you make the best decisions. As a side note, the first thought (1) above, is so simple that it's often overlooked.
"Happy life day!"
Retet
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1498
Joined: 23 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: A Northern Town

Previous

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 21:44 hours
(and 36 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact