mystykoekaki wrote:Moss might be overlooked but I won't use a draft pick on him unless he proves otherwise. I don't think he will be top 5 wr this year.
Once he proves he's good again, then you are already behind. Taking educated risks is what wins FF, not waiting until a guy is proven (e.g., Fitzgerald and Palmer last year). If you were savvy enough to draft these guys, it helped your team immensely. This year you get no value for them. I'm not saying they won't be good, it's just that you have to take them early now that they are "proven".
Since Moss has fallen off a bit the last 2 years, you are getting some value for him in the 3rd. If he hits 1,400+ yards and 12+ TDs again, he's back to an early 2nd rounder at worst and thus you pay the price next year for waiting for him to "prove himself".
Same thing can be said for a guy like Chester Taylor. There is risk involved because he reportedly showed up to camp out of shape. But he has all the tools around him to excel. Alot of people want to wait until he "proves himself". Once that occurs, you get no value for him. You also take a chance that he stinks and ends up sharing time or loses his job, but that's how you win at FF.