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This year's drop-offs...

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Postby FF Newbie » Tue Aug 01, 2006 12:07 am

Popcynical wrote:The thing that I love is that most people think Shaun Alexander are going to do much worse than next year than last year, and yet the expect Steve Smith to put up similar numbers as last year. Kinda hypocritical? Yeah.

No, not really. Alexander has been a very steady producer, always good for almost exactly 1700 total yards and 16-18 touchdowns. The 1950 yards and 28 scores last year was a clear departure for him that he is extremely unlikely to duplicate.

Steve Smith, otoh, only has 3 complete seasons under his belt, 3 seasons during which he steadily progressed in yardage from 872-1110-1563 and in TDs from 3-7-12. For Smith, last season was not so much a departure from the mean, as in Alexander's case, as it was the continuation of a steady progression. He may have finally reached his peak and may now plateau at that same level of production for several seasons like Alexander has done. In any case, he certainly had not established himself at a certain level of production that we might reasonably assume he will revert to, which is the case with Alexander.
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Postby aussieboy » Tue Aug 01, 2006 12:12 am

No, not really. Alexander has been a very steady producer, always good for almost exactly 1700 total yards and 16-18 touchdowns. The 1950 yards and 28 scores last year was a clear departure for him that he is extremely unlikely to duplicate.



Exactly. I never i said that SA will suck this yr, I said that I'm expecting a big drop off, which isn't a big prediction considering he broke records last yr. If his TD totals are cut by roughly half he could still get 15TDs and still be a top tier fantasy RB.
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Postby FF Newbie » Tue Aug 01, 2006 12:17 am

Exactly. I have Alexander projected for around 1700 total yards and 18-20 total touchdowns this year. That's still a a very good year, but I don't seem him duplicating last year's performance.
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Postby FatFoot » Tue Aug 01, 2006 12:21 am

RJ24VC15 wrote:Edge is away from the colts, but it's not like he is with the Bears offense.


Thomas Jones seemed to do alright with it. And I don't think many people put TJ in the same league as Edge. It's the (lack of ANY) passing game that the Bears sucked at last year, plus the arrogance in not double covering Steve Smith.

I'd bet on Smith failing to repeat anything close to last season numbers, since it does seem that he's stop-able... I think Seattle demonstrated that.

LT is a little scary with the team around him, Thomas Jones (if anyone was counting on him as a 2nd or 3rd rb) Steve Smith, I'm leery of Carson Palmer, and I don't know if I trust LJohnson to pan out like everyone's been saying. That said, with the exception of TJ, I'd still hope to draft any one of those guys. :P
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Postby maddog60 » Tue Aug 01, 2006 5:21 am

aussieboy wrote:
No, not really. Alexander has been a very steady producer, always good for almost exactly 1700 total yards and 16-18 touchdowns. The 1950 yards and 28 scores last year was a clear departure for him that he is extremely unlikely to duplicate.



Exactly. I never i said that SA will suck this yr, I said that I'm expecting a big drop off, which isn't a big prediction considering he broke records last yr. If his TD totals are cut by roughly half he could still get 15TDs and still be a top tier fantasy RB.


Bingo! There is a difference between having your best year as a 4th year veteran, as opposed to having a record-breaking year. Recording-breaking years are a rarity, and one you're almost gauranteed to come down from the next.

S Moss, Galloway, Alexander, are all obvious choices.

I'm going to throw Stallworth and Brady out there. Brady won't be passing nearly as much, and will having better QB rating, less fantasy value in my opinion, barring a rash of 7 injuries or such. Stallworth won't make nearly the same impact with a healthy Joe Horn on the field.
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