Popcynical wrote:The thing that I love is that most people think Shaun Alexander are going to do much worse than next year than last year, and yet the expect Steve Smith to put up similar numbers as last year. Kinda hypocritical? Yeah.
No, not really. Alexander has been a very steady producer, always good for almost exactly 1700 total yards and 16-18 touchdowns. The 1950 yards and 28 scores last year was a clear departure for him that he is extremely unlikely to duplicate.
Steve Smith, otoh, only has 3 complete seasons under his belt, 3 seasons during which he steadily progressed in yardage from 872-1110-1563 and in TDs from 3-7-12. For Smith, last season was not so much a departure from the mean, as in Alexander's case, as it was the continuation of a steady progression. He may have finally reached his peak and may now plateau at that same level of production for several seasons like Alexander has done. In any case, he certainly had not established himself at a certain level of production that we might reasonably assume he will revert to, which is the case with Alexander.