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Huge RB dropoff this year?

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Huge RB dropoff this year?

Postby sportsaddict » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:27 pm

Hey guys, I just learned about the cafe today and I am impressed with what I see. To be honest most forums ive ever visited dont even come close to this.

Anyway, I've only been playing fantasy football for a year now, so I do consider myself somewhat of a beginner.

Anyway, did anyone else notice there is a big dropoff at RB this year? I like these rbs:

Johnson
Alexander
LT
Portis
Barber
Rudi Johnson
Steven Jackson
Edgerrin James
Ronnie Brown
LaMont Jordan
Cadillac
Willis McGahee (I would include him but some disagree- also I dont include Westbrook but thats just personal preference)

After those rbs it gets really thin... Davis, J Jones, Parker, Droughns, etc. are not rbs i feel comfortable with as a 2nd rb.

Just wanted to get some thoughts on this RB dropoff since I have a draft coming up in a few weeks and might be going RB/WR/WR from the 2nd spot


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Re: Huge RB dropoff this year?

Postby biju » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:43 pm

sportsaddict wrote:Hey guys, I just learned about the cafe today and I am impressed with what I see. To be honest most forums ive ever visited dont even come close to this.

Anyway, I've only been playing fantasy football for a year now, so I do consider myself somewhat of a beginner.

Anyway, did anyone else notice there is a big dropoff at RB this year? I like these rbs:

Johnson
Alexander
LT
Portis
Barber
Rudi Johnson
Steven Jackson
Edgerrin James
Ronnie Brown
LaMont Jordan
Cadillac
Willis McGahee (I would include him but some disagree- also I dont include Westbrook but thats just personal preference)

After those rbs it gets really thin... Davis, J Jones, Parker, Droughns, etc. are not rbs i feel comfortable with as a 2nd rb.

Just wanted to get some thoughts on this RB dropoff since I have a draft coming up in a few weeks and might be going RB/WR/WR from the 2nd spot


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I think there are definite dropoffs in the RBs this year. Actually, I note 4 distict ones:

- After LJ, SA, and LT there's a noticeable dropoff.

- After Portis and Tiki (and some may even put S. Jax here) we have one

- After Rudi, Edge, Caddy, Ronnie, LaMont, McGahee, (S. Jax), and maybe DD and Westbrook there's one. I would also put (Cedric Benson/Thomas Jones here as well assuming one comes out of camp as the clear-cut starter)

- After Dunn, J. Lewis, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Droughns, Parker, Foster, Ahman, and Dillon I see the makings of RBBC, which is another major dropoff. (might be forgetting someone here).

There are definite tiers you should associate and where these guys should be picked up in your draft.

Your idea of going RB/WR/WR isn't a bad one and has been heavily discussed here. I think the important question is how many teams are in your league and what the starting lineup requirements are. Then you'll be able to see how far you can wait to take a 2nd RB. In standard leagues of 10 teams and 2 starting RBs (no flex positions) you could easily wait until the 4th round to pick up a second RB. If there are 12 or more teams and/or you have a flex spot in the lineup you might need to take another one sooner or face having a semi-starting RB.

Most importantly is not having your draft schedule set. If people are taking a bunch of RBs before you I would certainly take WR/WR in those rounds. On the other hand, if everyone starts taking WRs and you're left with the 2nd tier of WRs already (those usually start with Darrell Jackson, etc.) I would probably take a RB.
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Postby bagobonez » Wed Aug 02, 2006 6:38 pm

At the #2 slot I'd definitely go RB/WR/WR. That will more than likely land you studs in the first 3 rounds. In the subsequent rounds, go heavy at RB.
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Postby whodey#9 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 6:38 pm

hmm :-? .. I wanted to help you out since your new to the cafe, but since biju said pretty much everything I was gonna say (good post ;-D )... but I agree with everything he said.. I would wait and see who you have available when it gets back to you in the 2nd round... If you dont like any of the RB's as your #2 then grab some WR's... if you have a couple RB's fall to you that you like then dont be afraid to grab both of them, (If you have a flex positon or maybe even if you don't, it doesnt hurt to have 3 solid RBs).. welcome to the cafe :-o
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Postby citybirds27 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:00 pm

I say go Lt or Lj at two, get a holt, fitz type WR if they're left then go one of the jones, lewis, parker, etc. with your third pick.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:18 pm

Yeah, RB is muddy this year for sure. As I've been saying on many of my posts this year, if a top 8 WR gets to you as a "Big 3" drafter, you MUST take the WR. People are giving you a big edge if they stick around.

There are too many RBBC possibilites and ? backs to waste certain production at another position in round 2. This is where a lot of fantasy teams get broken on draft day as people go RB/RB with the second back being chosen purely on projection...a lot of those guys bust. At least with a #1 WR that has a proven track record you should have at least two guys that you count on to score.

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Postby Ek » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:34 pm

It definitely seems to be the case. Bear in mind that someone from the Droughns/Lewis/Foster/Ahman/Dunn group will probably emerge as a stud this year. The trick is picking which one it will be, since you can probably get most of those guys in the 3rd/4th round.
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Postby Gnu314 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:38 am

I actually disagree with the "huge dropoff" sentiment.

Going into this season there are a great number of later round backs that I'ed love to have on my team, much more than in years past.

But thats the beauty of this year. You can actually get away with going RB/WR/WR from an early to mid spot without it hurting you too much.

High upside guys like Jamal Lewis, Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, FWP have all fallen into the 4th (or even later) in some of the mocks I've done online and I've been able to construct some pretty stellar teams going RB/WR/WR. Dunn generally is a 4-5th round pick and is almost guaranteed to give you 1200/6 total yards and tds. Even Dillon, who in a redraft you can handcuff with Maroney without giving up almost anything, has fallen into the 4th in some drafts.

Thats a huge advantage that you have if you can snag three studs at WR and RB and find a high upside guy or two in the middle to late rounds. Even Deshaun Foster, who I consider high upside (and easily cuffable) falls into 6-8 which can be huge.
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