bagobonez wrote:Ugh... i hate this. I have the #2 slot and was considering going Bell/Dayne at the end of round 4 and start of round 5. would that be too high to take both?
I think that's too high. If Shanahan does it the way he did last year, you will never know which guy to start in any given week. It isn't like a lot of other handcuff situations where the first guy starts and gets 25 carries, then gets hurt and the other guy fills that spot. It feels to me more like 10-15 carries a game each. I think you can do better than that at rounds 4-5.
bagobonez wrote:Ugh... i hate this. I have the #2 slot and was considering going Bell/Dayne at the end of round 4 and start of round 5. would that be too high to take both?
I think that's too high. If Shanahan does it the way he did last year, you will never know which guy to start in any given week. It isn't like a lot of other handcuff situations where the first guy starts and gets 25 carries, then gets hurt and the other guy fills that spot. It feels to me more like 10-15 carries a game each. I think you can do better than that at rounds 4-5.
Ok, I think it's time to start putting the "nobody knows who's going to start theory" to rest.
Here, for hopefully the last time, was last year's division of starts on the Denver Broncos:
Mike Anderson: 15 Tatum Bell: 1
Now if you're talking about carries per game, here we go:
Mike Anderson: 239 in 15 games, one of which he was injured early and only had 4 carries. Including the injury game he averaged 15.9 carries per game. Without that game it's 16.8 carries per game.
Tatum Bell: 173 in 14 games (I already removed the game where he "played" but didn't get any touches) for an average of 12.3 carries.
Number of games getting the majority of carries:
Mike Anderson: 11 Tatum Bell: 5
Realistically, Tatum doesn't even deserve his one start and one of the "majority of carries" because it was the last game of the season and Mike Anderson was being rested. In that game, Ron Dayne actually took Tatum's role with the 40% of the carries and produced better than Tatum Bell did with the 60% of carries. Furthermore, a second "majority of carries" came after Mike Anderson was injured in the first game. I'm not sure I would count that as a planned majority of carries either.
The 1st stringer is going to start and he's going to get about 60% of the carries unless there's an injury.
Now, can we please stop talking about how Denver's backfield is a total crapshoot and you never know who's going to get the majority of carries or who is going to start?
bagobonez wrote:Ugh... i hate this. I have the #2 slot and was considering going Bell/Dayne at the end of round 4 and start of round 5. would that be too high to take both?
dont throw away those picks on this disaster of a situation. If it is somehow RBBC, then both of them will not be of good value.
I'd grab your SA/LJ, then next round the best wideout &
Westbrook
Chester Taylor
McGahee
Willie Parker
Warrick Dunn
then grab a RB like Addai and a solid WR or 2 solid WRs... either way, dont waste those early picks on this mess.
intense wrote:then grab a RB like Addai and a solid WR or 2 solid WRs... either way, dont waste those early picks on this mess.
Why grab a rookie RB that is locked in a position battle that will likely end in a RBBC when you can grab a veteran RB that is locked in a position battle that will likely end in a RBBC?
I don't think he should grab both Dayne and Bell, but I would much rather have one of the Denver RBs than Addai. I just think the Denver RB situation is more predictable than Indy's. (I can't believe I described the Denver RB situation as 'predictable')
I would wait until the 6th/7th and grab Dayne and forget Bell. Even at this point in time, when it is quite clear that Dayne is the frontrunner for Denver RB#1, the majority of people are disbelievers that Ron Dayne is gonna be the real deal. Tatum Bell is a mighty expensive backup IMO, but if you wanna play it "safe" then by all means throw away a valuable early middle round pick "locking up" Denver RB.
I think if Dayne rips off a long run in the preseason, he might jump to a late 4th pick, but until then I'd say it is safe to wait. The average owner remembers the hype that Dayne had coming into the NFL and how poorly he did in NY, and they expect him to always falter yet again in the NFL. They don't realize that a new situation, a new team, and a new opportunity is all it takes for a runner to show what he is made of. Use that to your advantage and wait on Dayne for increased value. I have a hard time seeing anybody but an extremely saavy owner drafting Dayne in the 5th round or earlier. You just don't need to drop that kind of pick at this point. Cedric Benson is the guy who is probably shooting up draftsheets and you might have to drop an earlier pick to acquire him right now.
---
If you want a comparison to Dayne, just look at Thomas Jones last year. The guy has below average skills for an NFL RB, found himself on a below average team, and he had to play behind a rookie QB all year... And then the defense turns All-World overnight and they forcefeed him 300+ carries and you have a solid fantasy player. Now think of 300+ carries in Denver and what do you see? Clinton Portis and a #1 overall candidate from just a few short years ago.
We already know what Denver is capable of. On a per touch basis, the Denver fantasy RBs rank right up there with LJ, LT, and SA. That means if Ron Dayne somehow miraculously gets 350 carries this season, he could score up in the range of 20 TDs.
But much more likely, there will be no RB with 300 carries. RBBC in Denver is to be expected. Which means that no one in Denver is going to be a top5 RB or score 20 TDs. But like we saw last year, even in a RBBC, a Denver RB is fully capable of being top10. Mike Anderson did it last year. Ron Dayne is that guy this year until proven otherwise, believe it. He is so worth his draft position right now it is ridiculous. His prospects are easily better than SEVERAL guys going 4+ rounds ahead of him IMO.
Kensat30 wrote:I would wait until the 6th/7th and grab Dayne and forget Bell. Even at this point in time, when it is quite clear that Dayne is the frontrunner for Denver RB#1, the majority of people are disbelievers that Ron Dayne is gonna be the real deal. Tatum Bell is a mighty expensive backup IMO, but if you wanna play it "safe" then by all means throw away a valuable early middle round pick "locking up" Denver RB.
I think if Dayne rips off a long run in the preseason, he might jump to a late 4th pick, but until then I'd say it is safe to wait. The average owner remembers the hype that Dayne had coming into the NFL and how poorly he did in NY, and they expect him to always falter yet again in the NFL. They don't realize that a new situation, a new team, and a new opportunity is all it takes for a runner to show what he is made of. Use that to your advantage and wait on Dayne for increased value. I have a hard time seeing anybody but an extremely saavy owner drafting Dayne in the 5th round or earlier. You just don't need to drop that kind of pick at this point. Cedric Benson is the guy who is probably shooting up draftsheets and you might have to drop an earlier pick to acquire him right now. ---
If you want a comparison to Dayne, just look at Thomas Jones last year. The guy has below average skills for an NFL RB, found himself on a below average team, and he had to play behind a rookie QB all year... And then the defense turns All-World overnight and they forcefeed him 300+ carries and you have a solid fantasy player. Now think of 300+ carries in Denver and what do you see? Clinton Portis and a #1 overall candidate from just a few short years ago.
We already know what Denver is capable of. On a per touch basis, the Denver fantasy RBs rank right up there with LJ, LT, and SA. That means if Ron Dayne somehow miraculously gets 350 carries this season, he could score up in the range of 20 TDs.
But much more likely, there will be no RB with 300 carries. RBBC in Denver is to be expected. Which means that no one in Denver is going to be a top5 RB or score 20 TDs. But like we saw last year, even in a RBBC, a Denver RB is fully capable of being top10. Mike Anderson did it last year. Ron Dayne is that guy this year until proven otherwise, believe it. He is so worth his draft position right now it is ridiculous. His prospects are easily better than SEVERAL guys going 4+ rounds ahead of him IMO.
That's thing though. Since i'm in the #2 slot, if I don't take him (Dayne) on teh 4th/5th side of the snake, then I'd have to wait until the 6th/7th and by then he'd probably be gone.
Right now my roster looks like this...
RB Shaun Alexander
WR Chad Johnson
and I'm about to get another stud WR (depends on the guy in the 1st slot) but I'll get one of the following guys (Owens, Holt, Harrison, Moss.) So my WR situation will be taken care of (we start 2). One of my RB slots is obviously filled with Alexander. I don't feel the need to take a QB, TE, PK or DEF as high as rounds 4 and 5, and with the RB position being so important, I feel like I'll probably need to take two in rounds 4 and 5. THen it's a matter of looking at who's available. Generally at that spot, all the guys you're looking at are the RBBC guys. Dillon/Maroney, Rhodes/Addai, Jones/Benson, Bell/Dayne. And out of the RBBC's, I like the Bell/Dayne prospect the best because of that offensive line.
Or I guess I could forget trying to get a monopoly on a certain team and take for example, Dillon and Dayne?
plus i think there is a 50-50 chance that drhodes could blow up this year, so addai might be a good late round flier at best, or if you go for DR, maybe grab addai late too if it doesn't hurt you any
Since you are choosing between RBBC guys, I would try to diversify a bit and take two guys from different RBBCs and hope at least one pays off. Out of the guys you named, I like Benson and Dayne the best.
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by Guru13 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:42 am 
