This is nuts, while I agree that M. Bell probably won't end up being a huge difference maker this year, as a mid-round pick any RB with a chance to be the starter in Denver is far from "overrated".
Chances are high your mid round pick will be a bust anyway, and few have the upside a guy like Bell has. Sure, if you grab him in the mid-rounds you may end up burning your pick (just like you probably would have anyway), but you might end up winning your league on that pick alone. I'd risk a 6th-8th round pick on that notion alone (how'd that go for the LJ drafters last year?).