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is ADDAI this years JJ Arrington?

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Postby creamdoorthirtyniner » Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:28 am

Ughh! This gets me PO'd more than anything! When he says, "is he this year's Arrington", he's speaking of how Arrington was rated so high, and poeple were predicting 1000/7 at the least (including me), and he ended up being a bum.

He's not talking about how great Indy's offense is, because face it, we're not very sure of potential RB production, due to Edge being helathy the last few years. You can't go back 5 years and say, "well Rhodes is a nobody and he got 1000 yards", because that arguement is pretty irrelevant.

He wants to know if Arrington's seasonal production last year vs. his ADP is going to be similar to that of Addai's this year. I see many similarities, and overall, yes, I believe that Addai will not become a very good player.

Yes, I watched him in college. I say this because I know I'm going to get the people who think they're pretty smart, and wisecracks coming in and saying stuff like, "You c@n't judg3 th3 pl@y3r b3c@us3 u probaby /-/@v3n't seen him play in college. R0x0rs s0x0rs! W00t! N00b!".

All in all, Addai may not even start until halfway through the season, and in all honesty, I think that it takes at least a year and the offseason to lern all of the audibles, become in sync with the offense etc. This isn't the Bears offense we're talking about. The line may be better, etc, but the playbook ranks as one of the hardest in the league to learn.

Addai'06=Arrington'05, statwise, draft position wise.
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Postby bklik » Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:16 am

johnpax wrote:
disgruntledjetsfan wrote:Could he be a bust? Of course, I guess anyone can be a bust. However, I don't think he will be like JJ Arrington. First off, Addai is quite talented, he just had some durability issues in college. As for the Colts, well obviously he has a much better oline than arrington had to work with, and he is in perhaps the most prolific offense in the NFL. I'd be surprised if he busts.


Not sure any of that is true, or makes any sense. But thanks for posting.

Arrington is/was more talented, and had a better college career - by far. Addai never won the starting job outright, only got it due to injury and when he did he ended up getting hurt. Not exactly an impressive college career.

So people don't bust if they get drafted by a good team? How on earth does that make sense? On a good team, it's probably harder to make the roster, start, get playing time, because they are good. A good team can't afford growing pains, rookie mistakes, rookies hitting the wall. The Colts are built to win now. There's a bunch of teams Addai would probably get far more playing time on, because after week 5 they won't have a shot at the playoffs. Busts happen to every team, good and bad.

And I love Addai's comment of "It's a lot faster then college". Yeah that's what I want to hear from the RB who's going to lead the Colts to the SB according to some people around here. If Addai gets 500-600 yards, it will be a very successful year.


1. Offensive line in IND is about infinity times better than the Oline in ARI. Please explain to me how this is NOT better for Addai. Does he do better if he has to create all of his own holes and take monster hits, rather than have his Oline open lanes for him? Seriously...

2. Less pressure on him and better experience. If you are on a winning team, such as the Colts, a lot of your time will be spent running the clock while holding a lead, or running PA and picking up blocking assignments. He could possibly thrive underneath the system that Edge thrived under. Standing behind Peyton has to be the biggest confidence boost a RB could have.

3. Coaching. Like the coaching in ARI is anything near the coaching in IND? In the voice of Gob from Arrested Development, "Come on!"
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Postby maddog60 » Sat Aug 12, 2006 12:43 pm

johnpax wrote:Arrington is/was more talented, and had a better college career - by far. Addai never won the starting job outright, only got it due to injury and when he did he ended up getting hurt. Not exactly an impressive college career.


Using college production to compare guys once they hit the NFL is irrelevant. Using trends, such as "RB X would run north-south in college, hence I think he'll fit well with Cowher's offense" is worth noting, but "RB X racked up this many yards and scored this many TDs, so he's more talented thatn RB Y who had less" is not.

So people don't bust if they get drafted by a good team?


Colts haven't drafted a 1st round bust in 10 years. That's not luck, its skill. I don't think any of us could compare to that level of talent in evaluating players they must have to do so well with their 1st rounders. Only Baltimore comes to mind as having close to that record.

How on earth does that make sense? On a good team, it's probably harder to make the roster, start, get playing time, because they are good. A good team can't afford growing pains, rookie mistakes, rookies hitting the wall.


He's the 1st round pick. Even if he has a bad pre-season and rookie year, they're going to keep him around for at least another year to see what he can do.

Additionally, we're talking about fantasy busts. In fantasy football, better blocking, and a top QB make a world of difference for the RB. No one in their right mind will stack the box. They will load up against Manning and force Addai/Rhodes to beat them, which means lots of favorable running situations. Also, better blocking... well just ask Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson, or any Denver RB what a world of difference that makes.

Good teams have to deal with rookie growing pains, because you can't count on free agency to build your team for you, you need to draft replacements, and sometimes you have to start rookies. Seattle didn't seem to mind Latofa starring on their defense last year, and the Steelers became a force again thanks to Big Ben the year prior. Not to mention RB is the easiest position for a rookie to learn how to adjust to the NFL at, we're not talking about a rookie QB or WR here.

The Colts are built to win now. There's a bunch of teams Addai would probably get far more playing time on, because after week 5 they won't have a shot at the playoffs.


Ok, I'm assuming you're talking about teams that you think will be 1-4 or 0-5 by then, because any other record, even 2-3 would still be in the mix. Now, if these teams are losing all of the time, they're not playing with the lead often, which means more passing less running. How does that help Addai? It behooves any fantasy RB to play on a winning team, because that team will run more often to kill the clock, its a given.

And I love Addai's comment of "It's a lot faster then college". Yeah that's what I want to hear from the RB who's going to lead the Colts to the SB according to some people around here. If Addai gets 500-600 yards, it will be a very successful year.


Where do you get the impression Addai is going to "lead" this team, or that anyone expects that? Everyone, even the slightest of football fans know that this team's success is squarely on Manning's shoulders. He leads the team, and he'll get the blame if they never win a superbowl.

As for his comments, that's pretty standard. Lots of college players get asked "What's different at this level?" and almost always its "It's faster." I dont see why you consider it a bad thing that he feels the way every rookie seems to, or that he recognizes the difference.
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Postby Wesley Walker » Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:15 pm

Addai will have to take the starting job away from Rhodes. As far as I remember, Arrington had to beat out only Marcel Shipp. I fully expect Addai to get less of an opportunity to prove himself this year than Arrington got last year. Despite the fact that Addai has a better chance to succeed in Indy if he gets the call, I think his chance of beating out Rhodes is far worse than was Arrington's chance of beating out Shipp (which he pretty much failed to do). Rhodes is better than Shipp, by far, in my opinion. That's my point. But the other key thing here is that Indy's offense is good and Arizona's is bad, or perhaps more accurately, desperate to the extent that the running game is non-existent and the passing game is their only prayer.
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Postby johnpax » Sat Aug 12, 2006 4:42 pm

bklik wrote:
johnpax wrote:
disgruntledjetsfan wrote:Could he be a bust? Of course, I guess anyone can be a bust. However, I don't think he will be like JJ Arrington. First off, Addai is quite talented, he just had some durability issues in college. As for the Colts, well obviously he has a much better oline than arrington had to work with, and he is in perhaps the most prolific offense in the NFL. I'd be surprised if he busts.


Not sure any of that is true, or makes any sense. But thanks for posting.

Arrington is/was more talented, and had a better college career - by far. Addai never won the starting job outright, only got it due to injury and when he did he ended up getting hurt. Not exactly an impressive college career.

So people don't bust if they get drafted by a good team? How on earth does that make sense? On a good team, it's probably harder to make the roster, start, get playing time, because they are good. A good team can't afford growing pains, rookie mistakes, rookies hitting the wall. The Colts are built to win now. There's a bunch of teams Addai would probably get far more playing time on, because after week 5 they won't have a shot at the playoffs. Busts happen to every team, good and bad.

And I love Addai's comment of "It's a lot faster then college". Yeah that's what I want to hear from the RB who's going to lead the Colts to the SB according to some people around here. If Addai gets 500-600 yards, it will be a very successful year.


1. Offensive line in IND is about infinity times better than the Oline in ARI. Please explain to me how this is NOT better for Addai. Does he do better if he has to create all of his own holes and take monster hits, rather than have his Oline open lanes for him? Seriously...

2. Less pressure on him and better experience. If you are on a winning team, such as the Colts, a lot of your time will be spent running the clock while holding a lead, or running PA and picking up blocking assignments. He could possibly thrive underneath the system that Edge thrived under. Standing behind Peyton has to be the biggest confidence boost a RB could have.

3. Coaching. Like the coaching in ARI is anything near the coaching in IND? In the voice of Gob from Arrested Development, "Come on!"


1. The Indy oline is largely overrated when it comes to rushing. Most of it was Edge, and running against 5-6-7 people in the box. Again just because Indy drafted him, doesn't mean jack. He could be a monster bust, or become a stud. It's still drafting unproven players. Indy can't sniff KC/Denver/SEA when it comes to power rushing. Edge was only top 5 once in the last 3 years.

2. Uh I'd rather play for Denver/Sea/KC when it comes to insane RB production.

3. You're confused.

Addai will be good or bad, and none of it has to do with Indy, Manning, or Dungy as you seem to believe. He can either hang with NFL talent, or he can't. There's usually not a lot of middle ground when it comes to rookies. If he has game, he'll do fine. If he doesn't, he'll bust. Just because a "good team" drafted him, doesn't really amount to much. He was the 4th RB taken. If he was such a sure thing, why did teams pass on him? He's a lottery. Dungy isn't a RB guru. Addai didn't go to Denver. He's not at KC. He's not playing for the Seabags. Indy is a good situation long term, decent short term, but Addai will boom or bust based on how he translates to the NFL game.

In dynasty leagues you draft more on talent then situation. Talent rises. Addai going to Indy doesn't mean instant success, doesn't even mean he'll be in the NFL in 3 years. Yes there are worse teams he could have gone too. But if he had, his ADP wouldn't be the 4th round. People are overplaying the Indy situation. In fact, because they are built to win now, Addai might see even less time.
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Postby johnpax » Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:00 pm

maddog60 wrote:
johnpax wrote:Arrington is/was more talented, and had a better college career - by far. Addai never won the starting job outright, only got it due to injury and when he did he ended up getting hurt. Not exactly an impressive college career.


Using college production to compare guys once they hit the NFL is irrelevant. Using trends, such as "RB X would run north-south in college, hence I think he'll fit well with Cowher's offense" is worth noting, but "RB X racked up this many yards and scored this many TDs, so he's more talented thatn RB Y who had less" is not.

So people don't bust if they get drafted by a good team?


Colts haven't drafted a 1st round bust in 10 years. That's not luck, its skill. I don't think any of us could compare to that level of talent in evaluating players they must have to do so well with their 1st rounders. Only Baltimore comes to mind as having close to that record.

How on earth does that make sense? On a good team, it's probably harder to make the roster, start, get playing time, because they are good. A good team can't afford growing pains, rookie mistakes, rookies hitting the wall.


He's the 1st round pick. Even if he has a bad pre-season and rookie year, they're going to keep him around for at least another year to see what he can do.

Additionally, we're talking about fantasy busts. In fantasy football, better blocking, and a top QB make a world of difference for the RB. No one in their right mind will stack the box. They will load up against Manning and force Addai/Rhodes to beat them, which means lots of favorable running situations. Also, better blocking... well just ask Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson, or any Denver RB what a world of difference that makes.

Good teams have to deal with rookie growing pains, because you can't count on free agency to build your team for you, you need to draft replacements, and sometimes you have to start rookies. Seattle didn't seem to mind Latofa starring on their defense last year, and the Steelers became a force again thanks to Big Ben the year prior. Not to mention RB is the easiest position for a rookie to learn how to adjust to the NFL at, we're not talking about a rookie QB or WR here.

The Colts are built to win now. There's a bunch of teams Addai would probably get far more playing time on, because after week 5 they won't have a shot at the playoffs.


Ok, I'm assuming you're talking about teams that you think will be 1-4 or 0-5 by then, because any other record, even 2-3 would still be in the mix. Now, if these teams are losing all of the time, they're not playing with the lead often, which means more passing less running. How does that help Addai? It behooves any fantasy RB to play on a winning team, because that team will run more often to kill the clock, its a given.

And I love Addai's comment of "It's a lot faster then college". Yeah that's what I want to hear from the RB who's going to lead the Colts to the SB according to some people around here. If Addai gets 500-600 yards, it will be a very successful year.


Where do you get the impression Addai is going to "lead" this team, or that anyone expects that? Everyone, even the slightest of football fans know that this team's success is squarely on Manning's shoulders. He leads the team, and he'll get the blame if they never win a superbowl.

As for his comments, that's pretty standard. Lots of college players get asked "What's different at this level?" and almost always its "It's faster." I dont see why you consider it a bad thing that he feels the way every rookie seems to, or that he recognizes the difference.


You said a lot, without really saying much. You really got sidetracked, so I'll help you get focused.

The post said

Addai was more talented (incorrect)
Addai is going to a great team so he won't bust (incorrect)
Addai is behind a better oline (he also has to beat out rhodes, who is far better then shipp)

Then you rambled about god knows what.

Arrington is more talented, and had a better college career. Done.
People who have a clue, in hardcore dynasty leagues, draft on talent not situation. Done.
The Indy oline is vastly overrated when it comes to rushing. Done.

Indy's OL is perceived as good because of Peyton Manning under center.

2005: 16th in rushing yardage (1,703), 24th in YPC (3.7), 6th in rushing touchdowns (18), 1st in PA / sack (25.8)

Tackle Tarik Glenn is clearly the class of this group and he is amongst the best in the NFL today. Center Jeff Saturday is also pretty good. After that the trio of Diem, Scott and Lilja are pedestrian at best.

Manning's smarts help this unit appear better than they are. Nowhere near a top unit.


Which pretty much sums it up. Addai could easily be a bust. He was an average college RB at best, he was constantly injured, never beat out anyone for the starters job, he runs behind an average oline, and Edge (a HOF RB) averaged 10 TDs a year the last 3 years. LJ had more TDs in 2 years (playing part time both years) then Edge did in 3 years. This isn't KC/Denver/Sea.

The Colts averaged 3.7 yards per carry last year. One of the worst YPC in the league. Relax people.
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Postby Kensat30 » Sat Aug 12, 2006 5:11 pm

Free Bagel wrote:This exact post has been made about 3 other times already, in each of these posts it was mentioned that the comparison is a terrible one when you actually look at it from further than 90 million miles away.


The Sun can still blind you from 90 million miles away if you look directly at it. Addai hasn't been hyped as much as Arrington due to the situation he landed in on draft day, but it's not totally out of the question to compare the levels of hype. It's clear to me that the Colt's REACHED on the first 2nd tier RB when they saw Denangelo go right before they were set to pick.

Who cares about the past success of a front office.. Manning came right out and said in public they really wanted Maroney. All bets are off on this one. Rhodes has a strangle hold on the job going into week 1 IMO...
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