IDP Discussion By Team

[Crimedogg32]

Im trying to get some IDP discussion sparked in these forums so I figured id give my take on the defensive side of the ball of my local teams. I will shortly post some undervalued and overvalued players for the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers. I hope other homers will do the same for their team and we can get a list of every team in the NFL which players to watch for this year. If you have any insight on teams (or players) that you feel are being valued to high or to low please post to help out the IDP at the cafe.

[Crimedogg32]

Green Bay Packers

Undervalued
Aaron Kampman: Kampman was signed over the off-season to a new contract and shows the Packers are committed to making him a fixture on defense. He is an every down DE and should post close to the top tackle numbers from the position. He has never had very many sacks (5.5 being the most last year) but if he can up that a little bit and come away with another 50+ tackle season he will be a consistent #2 DL which is something I always value.
Abdual Hodge: Reports out of camp are that he is looking better than A.J. Hawk and in an effort to get the best 3 LBs on the field he could be put into MLB and move Barnett to SLB. The Packers defense is built around funneling plays to the MLB so Hodge could put up what most would consider surprising numbers. There are a few risks though because at this point he is still the backup MLB and that would hold no value. He also would almost surely be pulled on nickel situations so they can keep Barnett in the game. That being said where he is being drafted now he is a steal and people in dynasty leagues should take note of this probable starting MLB where the Packers always seem to get production out of.
Nick Collins: Collins quietly put up one of the best second half stats of any safety in the league during his rookie season. During the second half of the season he put up 45 solo tackles and 52 total, which project that over the full season he put up 90 solo tackles and over 100 total. The Packers have significantly upgraded their LB position so not as many tackles should come his way as in the second half of last season but assuming he can improve on his big play production he should be a solid #3 DB with #2 DB potential and is being drafted outside that in most leagues.

Overvalued
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila: Over the course of the last 4 season KGB has consistently got worse fantasy numbers. He is only 245 pounds and an undersized DE and has never had more than 40 tackles in a season. He is a big name because of all the sacks he raps up but he isn’t consistent from week to week relying on the big plays to get his points not tackles so he is not worth the #2 DL status he is going in most leagues and should a #3 DL at years end but will have to live through many low scoring weeks.
Nick Barnett: As already mentioned reports in Green Bay are swirling that Hodge could be moved to MLB bumping Barnett to the dreaded SLB for IDP owners. If he is moved to IDP his production will take a significant drop because the Packers usually funnel plays to middle and being on the strong side he will have to take on more blockers which is never a good thing. The reason he won’t fall off the face of the planet in terms of production is that he should still be in on passing downs when most SLBs are taken off the field because of his superior talent to Hodge.
Charles Woodson: He received a huge contract over the summer and is a quality CB but don’t let that fool you because he has no value in an IDP league. Top CBs just don’t get thrown at often which hurts their value because the cant make tackles and INTs. Over the past 4 years he hasn’t broken into the top 50 of DB scoring and this year he won’t improve enough to make him roster worthy. Do not draft him in DB leagues and only consider him if you must start CBs.

[Crimedogg32]

Minnesota Vikings

Undervalued
Kevin Williams: The Vikings are making the switch to the Tampa-2 and one person who should improve because of the system is Kevin Williams. He will be the pass rushing tackle that Sapp was in the original Tampa-2. He could easily get close to the production he got in 2003 (ranked around 11 for DL) and 2004 (ranked around 3 for DL) where he got double digit sacks, in this new system. He is a stud in leagues that separate DT and DE but also keep an eye out for him in leagues that combine the DL because with his big play ability he has shown he can be a top DL in the league.
Erasmus James: He was a first round pick last year and has loads of potential. He will be playing the Simeon Rice role and should be an every down back. The Vikings have an excellent offensive line and it will be tough to double team Erasmus regularly so he should break out and post double digit sacks with solid tackle numbers playing every down. With not great stats last year you should be able to steal him late in drafts as depth and he has the upside to be one of the best DEs in the game.
E.J. Henderson: E.J. was thought to be the top MLB in his draft in 2003 and now he is showing his potential as a WLB. He has reportedly been tearing it up in training camp supposedly being ahead of first round pick Greenway by a large margin. That no longer matters because Greenway is out for the year. In dynasty leagues he will still have value when Greenway returns because he should be pushed over to MLB to ensure the top LBs get on the field. He is playing the Derrick Brooks role at WLB where Brooks was a perennial all-pro. The Tampa-2 funnels more plays to the outside then the normal 4-3 so playing WLB is an advantage and run E.J. should be able to capitalize on.
Antoine Winfield: The biggest change in the Tampa-2 system from the normal 4-3 is that the CBs play more up to line of scrimmage with the safeties usually playing deep. The biggest beneficiary will be Antoine Winfield. He was the Vikings leading tackler a season ago and with the new system he should have even more opportunities. Usually its rare for a CB to provide solid production every week but Winfield has a chance because he should be used heavily in the run support and is a natural tackler. In leagues that separate CBs he should be one of the first taken but even in DB leagues he should be a solid #2 with potential in the new system to put up #1 type numbers.

Overvalued:
Pat Williams: Pat Williams is a great football player and extremely important to the Vikings but holds no fantasy value. He is almost always doubled teamed on running plays because he is at the point of attack and loses many tackles that way. He also is not a good pass rusher so you shouldn’t expect many sacks if any. He will help all of Minnesota’s other DL and LBs by taking on blockers but wont give you fantasy numbers needed to be on your radar.
Napoleon Harris: He is starting MLB for the Vikings but has thrown throughout his career that he is the top talent he was thought to be when he was selected in round 1. One disadvantage he has is that usually the big IDP studs in the Tampa-2 come from the WLB (June, Briggs, Brooks) and only a superior talent (Urlacher) can overcome it and put up solid numbers and Harris has not shown that in the NFL. He also is not good in coverage and reports are that Dontarrious Thomas could come in on passing situations at MLB and take away any chance Harris had at putting up significant numbers.
Darren Sharper/Dwight Smith: The position that gets hurt the most in terms of fantasy production in the Tampa-2 is the safeties. Both have FS responsibility which is usually the last line of defensive. They are more involved in coverage and aren’t near the line of scrimmage so if they have any production at will just be from big plays. I like consistent scoring from week to week not a fluke INT or 2 one week and the next week 0 points. With neither safety being a hard hitting run stuffer I cant see either one of these players on any of my teams this year especially Sharper who is being highly overvalued going off the board usually as a #2 DB.

Hoping to get some more insights on other teams or atleast spark some interest on the players I mentioned so hopefully this does the trick

[Snakes Gould]

heres my assessment

Philadelphia Eagles

DE - Kearse - will put up 10 + sacks opposite howard. tackles subpar
DT - Patterson -
DT - Bunkley -
DE - Howard - could put some 10+ sacks opposite kearse..tackles low though.

OLB - Shawn Barber/Matt McCoy - still a pre-season battle who will win, but barber put together a nice season last time he was with the eagles. knack for the ball, fumbles/ints alike. McCoy is an undersized energenic LB who could be a nice sleeper.
MLB - Trotter - tackles only asset, usually overvalued but still a solid IDP
OLB - D. Jones - not worth owning

CB - S. Brown - one of the best cover corners in the game. led all NFL players in passes defended. very good against the run as well, tackles are a plus for a cb.
FS - Dawkins - alittle overvalued by some. still a playmaker, ints/forced fumbles etc... but the guy you'll want is next to him...
SS M. Lewis - IDP stud at DB. plays in the box alot. lots of tackles, forced and recovered fumbles as well.
CB - L. Sheppard - gets beat a lot in man coverage, thus alot of balls are thrown his way, giving him good INT numbers. softer against the run than sheldon. occasionally returns punts and a pretty good bet for an int return for a td too.

MUST HAVES - M. Lewis, J. Trotter, B. Dawkins
Border line - S. Brown, J. Kearse, D. Howard

sleepers - trent cole (can put up sacks in bunches) chris gocong (led NCAA with 23 1/2 sacks last season, slated as number 2 strong side LB)

[Crimedogg32]

I think I would probably avoid the Eagles DLine all together. They have talent but with the way they rotate everyone I dont think you can find solid production each week from any of them. I especially see Kearse being taken way to high for the amount of snaps he will get and not posting good tackle numbers.

[Snakes Gould]

I think I would probably avoid the Eagles DLine all together. They have talent but with the way they rotate everyone I dont think you can find solid production each week from any of them. I especially see Kearse being taken way to high for the amount of snaps he will get and not posting good tackle numbers.

oh yeah i agree....i play in yahoo leagues where all LB's and DL's are classified as DL, so i dont ever draft REAL DL men....kearse will be in there for every passing down though, and with a real solid threat across from him, the constant double teams will stop and i could easily see him putting up 13-15 sacks. and no this isnt a homer talking because im not a big fan of kearse.

[maddog60]

I could not disagree more about that Eagle's D-line assessment. Jimmy Johnson loves rotating his DEs to keep them fresh, and that kills their fantasy value. I expect big things in the NFL from Kearse and Howard combo, but in fantasy they are a sucker's pick. Any IDPer should avoid the entire Eagle's DL.

[Snakes Gould]

I could not disagree more about that Eagle's D-line assessment. Jimmy Johnson loves rotating his DEs to keep them fresh, and that kills their fantasy value. I expect big things in the NFL from Kearse and Howard combo, but in fantasy they are a sucker's pick. Any IDPer should avoid the entire Eagle's DL.

well sure he rotates them, but kearse is in there for EVERY passing down. i dont feel as though i was HIGH in my assessment. all i said was that the ends have a chance to put up double digit sacks...and they do. other than that, they are worthless....