I think if Pennington can stay healthy the Jets wont be one of the 3 worst offenses in the NFL. It's a pretty safe bet to put SF there as well as the Bills because they are both just terrible. I think Oakland could end up being up there, as well as Cleveland and Tennessee.
Minnesota hands down for the worst of the worst. They have no legit #1 WR, no proven starting RB, and a 38-year-old QB with no backup. And that's without getting into all the off-the-field foolishness that's driven this team into the ground. They might start off without embarassing themselves, but within a few weeks they will be stuck at the bottom of the league in offense.
San Fran gets Next-to-Worst honors. Smith was just horrible last year and I don't expect an instant change. They're a young team and should get better, but last year wasn't their year and neither is this year. Next year isn't looking good either
No one will agree with me on #3, but I'm picking San Diego. WHAT? Tomlinson??? Gates??? Does the DraftDodger even WATCH football? Yeah, as a matter of fact I do. Whether I do or not, it's clear that San Diego's front office doesn't. By letting Brees go, they've lost their window of opportunity. They have no QB, their #1 WR is 38, and Tomlinson has no quality backup. People who think Tomlinson has seen the box stacked against him before haven't seen anything yet.
Let me defend a few of the other teams some people have mentioned:
Jets - I don't see them being awful if Pennington is healthy. The fact that Kevan Barlow is prominently involved helps their case, however.
Bears - They'll be running the same ball-control offense they did last year most likely. Grossman/Griese won't turn the ball over much more than Orton and will be more dangerous. Plus, they'll constantly have good field position due to the defense and return game. Is this a good offense? hell, no. But it's not a matchup I'd drool over for my fantasy defense unless your league has points for yards allowed.
Browns - Have a proven 12-1300 yard running back, and the passing game at least has potential. There will be some ugly moments, but there are more than three teams worse than this.
Titians - Billy Volek isn't horrible, and they have the kind of depth at WR and RB that I hope my fantasy team will have. Plus, the Titans defense is real bad (and has been showing it in the preseaon, too) - which means a lot of fantasy defenses will drive you nuts by giving up that garbage-time TD when they're up by 21 with 2 minutes left.
Minnesota - Yes, it's pretty much all career backups at the skill positions, but they've improved their blocking a ton, and the "loss" of Tice and Culpepper can't hurt.
Also, here are my two potential surprise bad offenses (in the spirit of listing SD):
Miami - As far as I'm aware they haven't shored up their porous line, they're relying on a college backup to carry the load, and even during his good seasons, CPepp has been hideously turnover prone. I wouldn't mind lining up a decent fantasy D against these guys at all.
Atlanta - They're foolishly trying to get rid of Duckett and ruin the "DVD" running game, which was about all they had going for them offensively. Mike Vick, although very fun to watch, is as turnover-prone as Culpepper and less threatening, and there isn't a single WR who's even remotely scary.
And the offense that will still be good, but a lot worse than people think...
Kansas City - They've replaced one of the best offensive coaches in the league with one of the worst, and they lost a good chunk of the blocking that helped make them special. It seems people expect their reputation as a great running team to open up holes for LJ next season. And unless Tony G has a fantastic rebound year, there isn't a top notch passing attack to fall back on, either.
I like your call on Miami. Fan expectation is high after that six-win finish last year---but why?
Ricky Williams, who turned in a monster game and many solid pro efforts in those final six weeks ... IS GONE.
Gus Frerotte, who turned in a tremendous effort at QB ... AIN'T THE QUARTERBACK.
And one of those wins was due to a freakish Timmy Smithesque perfomance by SAGE ROSENFELS<shudder>.
Ronnie Brown was barely a factor, and Culpepper wasn't even on the team.
Last year is over. There is a potential for good things to come out of the Miami offense (the rats leaving the sinking ship via free agency or trade demands) but that team has pre-reduction Dolly Parton BUST written all over it.
Could they be good? Yeah. But it's no stretch of the imagination to envision the team losing a lot of low-scoring games.
With the KC pick I disagree. You have some good points, but Green has always gotten the job done without great receivers. If he goes down, however ...
-CPep is healthy and is a very good QB.
-Ronnie Brown will be almost as good as Ricky was in '03
-Chambers is a good WR with some decent talent around him.
OLine sux and the defense will have to prove some things but I can see Miami keeping the good things going. Winning 6 straight to end last year is enough to keep sprits high going into this year which can be the difference in some of their early games.
I look for that first game vs Pittsburgh to be a very close game.
DraftDodger wrote:Gus Frerotte, who turned in a tremendous effort at QB ... AIN'T THE QUARTERBACK.
He stunk. Throwing for under 3k yards with a 52% completion percentage w/ 18 TDs and 13 INTs is not tremendous. Unless you're Michael Vick...
DraftDodger wrote:Ronnie Brown was barely a factor
What's your definition of a factor? He was a ROOKIE and put 907 yards and 4 TDs. I think any team would take that from a rookie who split time.
DraftDodger wrote:Could they be good? Yeah. But it's no stretch of the imagination to envision the team losing a lot of low-scoring games.
How do you envision them losing a lot of low-scoring games? Their division is pretty bad...Buffalo and NYJ could be two of the worst five teams in the NFL. They play the NFC North (worst division in the NFL last year) and the AFC South (tough teams in Indy and Jax...bad teams in Tenn and Houston).
Basically, you are saying that :
1. Frerotte > Culpepper
2. Miami's defense will dramatically improve
3. Rookie RBs need to rush for more than 1000 yards their first year even if they are splitting carries or else they are not even a "factor."