Interesting premise; good thread.
I've always said running a FF team was analagous to managing a portfolio.
I'm a certified financial planner, and won my first league 2 years ago, then after winnning 14 straight in one of my 2 league's last year I was upset by the #4 squad (Effing Cooley bastige!
) in the playoffs. In my other league, defending my title was difficult as my top 4 players had serious injuries (Deuce, JJ, SJax, Horn). I still scrambled to make the playoffs with my "portfolio" though!
One of the things I hold dear is holding players to a certain standard deviation. A monte carlo analysis won't do much in such a small sample with 16 games, however, when a certain WR who is consistent enough over the course of a season comes into a favorable matchup after a quiet couple weeks, I'm sure to have the guy in my lineup. Many other folks get too caught up in the short term trend and get blinded by it. It works just as well for the guy who's playing out of his skull, that's when I look to enhance my team by making a deal. Most of this is common sense, but because I oversee positions, taking multitudes of factors into consideration on a daily basis, it's certainly second nature to me and could spell an advantage....I'd hope.