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Use Elliot Wave theory for Fantasy Football projections...?

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Use Elliot Wave theory for Fantasy Football projections...?

Postby Navyseal » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:00 pm

Do some of you financial/market wiz's have any idea how Prechter's Elliot Wave theory could be/has been used to make projections/identify "breakout" players just like it does for stocks? If things such as "the height of women's skirts" and the like actually follow Elliot Wave patterns, then certainly Fantasy performances and rising stars follow similarly predictive patterns, I would think.

Looking for some of the more limber minds in the cafe, obviously...
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Postby HskrPwr13 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:29 pm

From what I know of it, its basically riding psychological trends. The best way I can think to use this is to bid up certain people which in turn can get you someone of greater value cheaper/later. Right now someone like Gore is riding a huge upward trend in the psyche of many drafters. Addai, was sky high and now we havent heard much about him, so people arent thinking as much about him. So Gore may have gained value on Addai even though much of what people feel now for Gore was already present even before the Barlow trade, because he was probably going to win the job anyway. So his true value hasnt changed, but his perceived value has. I'm not gonna go through a whole list of players, but it seems that if you have the ability to separate true value from perceived value than you've used the theory to your advantage.
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Postby Navyseal » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:16 pm

Good post.

Elliot Wave theory correctly predicts the movements of any stock in what is called a "wave #4 resolution" over 60% of the time.

Wave #1 is the initial "pop" or up move. Wave #2 is a temporary correction of the previous move as folks sell and take profits, and then Wave #3 is the longest wave (usually an uptrend) --- I would liken it to having owned Marshall Faulk after he arrived in STL until about 2003, but then wave #4 represents the downward adjustment after he peaked or "topped" *BUT*-- he did have one more "retracement" to the upside before his career ended basically last year... that last productive season (2004) was his Wave #5, by definition.

Elliot Wave's predictive power comes from merely plotting data and then analyzing it and seeing whose values have most likely bottomed or merely corrected... those that come immediately to mind are guys like Jamal Lewis and Derrick Mason (whose stock has been on the rise since McNair signed in Baltimore frankly)... Jamal's "fundamentals" haven't changed very much, but his situation and sentiment have, just as Mason's has w/ McNair in town. Mason's "correction" occurred last season, along with Jamal's, and perhaps they are still relatively cheap compared to the levels they should bounce-back too (regression to the mean) after a season w/ a competent QB running the show and moving the chains. Think of McNair as a "Merger or Acquisition" just like a company would , and his parent company, the Ravens are hoping to extract value out of an already established business complete with positive cash flow etc.

I think that whomever can figure out how to apply Elliot Wave theory to both measurably and effectively predict Fantasy Sports performances and values, then turn around and charge $49.99 per season for it is going to retire very early in life.
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Postby ateam » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:14 pm

Interesting premise; good thread.

I've always said running a FF team was analagous to managing a portfolio.

I'm a certified financial planner, and won my first league 2 years ago, then after winnning 14 straight in one of my 2 league's last year I was upset by the #4 squad (Effing Cooley bastige! :-t ) in the playoffs. In my other league, defending my title was difficult as my top 4 players had serious injuries (Deuce, JJ, SJax, Horn). I still scrambled to make the playoffs with my "portfolio" though! ;-D

One of the things I hold dear is holding players to a certain standard deviation. A monte carlo analysis won't do much in such a small sample with 16 games, however, when a certain WR who is consistent enough over the course of a season comes into a favorable matchup after a quiet couple weeks, I'm sure to have the guy in my lineup. Many other folks get too caught up in the short term trend and get blinded by it. It works just as well for the guy who's playing out of his skull, that's when I look to enhance my team by making a deal. Most of this is common sense, but because I oversee positions, taking multitudes of factors into consideration on a daily basis, it's certainly second nature to me and could spell an advantage....I'd hope. :-D
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Postby LoveBoatCaptain » Wed Aug 23, 2006 1:27 am

Ugh, Econ 331 starts on Monday... :-t :-t :-t
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