There was another good post about wilie, and by the end, it was basicaly taken as fact that 80 percent of willie's "break out" performances came against gastly run defenses. Witha tougher sched this year against the run D, I think willie will look more pedestrian. A month ago I thought he was the man, but all it takes is a quick look at his game by game stats from last year to make you think twice about taking him in the 2nd or third, over gore in the 5th or 6th.
by buffalobillsrul2002 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:07 am
There was another good post about wilie, and by the end, it was basicaly taken as fact that 80 percent of willie's "break out" performances came against gastly run defenses. Witha tougher sched this year against the run D, I think willie will look more pedestrian. A month ago I thought he was the man, but all it takes is a quick look at his game by game stats from last year to make you think twice about taking him in the 2nd or third, over gore in the 5th or 6th.
This is a good point. However, there is a lot of turnover from team-to-team each year, and often times we have a hard time predicting which teams will be top defenses (we also have a hard time predicting which teams will be bad offenses, which is why it's hard to use the WW defense for the first few weeks).
I have been targetting him in all my drafts because I only see improvment from him this year with no real threat to do worse (except injury which can bite anyone). If the guy does get most of the goaline carries then he could be a top back this year and there are not many runningbacks in the 3rd round I feel that way about. Most them I just hope they dont completely suck.
Fast Willie got major love in my draft (12 team) - going 14th overall, before the likes of McGahee (no he isn't a Pitt homer either). It's a good league but we had some peolpe taking some reaches this year. Chester went 3 picks later in the second at 17. I was targeting these two with my 3rd round pick (27th overall) and wondering if that might even be too early for them.
because dunn has jerious norwood, and parker has that wonderful offensive scheme with a quarterback that if he runs will get in trouble, literally.
but as far as my view on parker's value, the fact that he fell to the tenth round is absolutely ridiculous, that had to be like a 2 team league or something. and as far as people talking about goalline carries, I think haynes has a legitimate shot to have a decent TD season, like 8-10, and staley will probably sprain his toenail in week 2, so Im not really worried about him, FWP is obviously a long play threat, and that's where most of his TD's SHOULD come from, maybe like 5-7 IMO, so that's my 2 cents.
I kind of like these comparisons to Dunn that Parker is getting. He can break the long TD's, but there's a decent chance he won't get any of the close TD's.
Dunn's always a solid fantasy contributor with yardage, but he normally gets overlooked in drafts because he doesn't score TD's. Dunn still goes in the 4th or 5th round and ends up being a good value pick. Parker is getting the treatment that Dunn should be getting, so I'd say his value is dead even with his potential if he loses the RZ carries.
If he does end up getting all the carries, then that pick is very good.
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by Joeybagadonuts » Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:46 am 
