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Portis - no more goaline carries?

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Postby SniperShot » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:14 pm

Let me get this straight. Portis goes from being a 1.04 pick (redraft) to a 2.04 pick just like that? A bum shoulder and a good backup RB drops him an entire round...? Not in my book.
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Postby Gon_Trevil » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:15 pm

I'm a Portis owner. I recently traded for him and was happy as hell to be able to sport a Larry Johnson & Clinton Portis backfield all the way to the championship.

Now?

NOT happy.
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Postby Omaha Red Sox » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:17 pm

Gon_Trevil wrote:I'm a Portis owner. I recently traded for him and was happy as hell to be able to sport a Larry Johnson & Clinton Portis backfield all the way to the championship.

Now?

NOT happy.


Wait till he gets hot, use his draft position, and go after another first rounder.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:29 pm

As a Portis dynasty owner I'm a little bit worried, but man are you guys overreacting. 1.04 to mid-second because of TJ DUCKETT??? Seriously?

If you dropped him for the injury that's one thing, but even after that he was still sitting in that 1.04-1.06 range. TJ Duckett...c'mon.
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Postby DGroundhog » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:39 pm

At this point I think Portis right leg could fall off and some would still think he deserves to go in the 1.04 spot.

I actually never had him at 1.04. He would have been at 1.06 at best pre-injury.

I just don't want my #1 RB to enter a season with injury concerns, and there are a number of good WR's to nab in the 2nd round that are safer picks. I'll go that route instead of take the risk.

If you people who DON'T own Portis think he still has mid first round value, then now would be a good time to trade for him if you think so highly of him still. I'm sure his current owner might consider a decent offer.
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Postby moochman » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:39 pm

Free Bagel wrote:As a Portis dynasty owner I'm a little bit worried, but man are you guys overreacting. 1.04 to mid-second because of TJ DUCKETT??? Seriously?

If you dropped him for the injury that's one thing, but even after that he was still sitting in that 1.04-1.06 range. TJ Duckett...c'mon.


Absolutely no reason to risk that shoulder with goalline carries with Duckett there. Mid-second round is a bit of a knee jerk reaction. Portis will still get enough scores to merit a first round pick. Assuming his shoulder is sound.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:04 pm

moochman wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:As a Portis dynasty owner I'm a little bit worried, but man are you guys overreacting. 1.04 to mid-second because of TJ DUCKETT??? Seriously?

If you dropped him for the injury that's one thing, but even after that he was still sitting in that 1.04-1.06 range. TJ Duckett...c'mon.


Absolutely no reason to risk that shoulder with goalline carries with Duckett there. Mid-second round is a bit of a knee jerk reaction. Portis will still get enough scores to merit a first round pick. Assuming his shoulder is sound.


Is Duckett even good at goalline carries? People just equate big with good around the goalline, but I recall seeing quite a bit of Warrick Dunn in the game inside the 10 over the last few years and he's the smallest starting RB in the league (9 TDs for Dunn in 2005), and now Duckett is headed to a team who's coach and OC have zero history of ever using a goalline RB, and it's not like Portis hasn't been banged up before (his whole career really) and still gotten the goalline work every stop of the way.

I can't say for sure, but when I wrote that article/write-up on the myth of the Peyton/Edge relationship after the 2005 season where I pointed out that Edge was the second worst goalline back in the league (statistically), I think I remember Duckett's name showing up near the bottom of that list when I was looking it over.

Again, I don't know if I'm remembering that correctly, anyone got any numbers on Duckett's effectiveness on the goalline?

Also, let's not forget that Washington's 3rd string RB just went down with a season ending injury, so it makes sense for them to add a RB.
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Postby skibrett15 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:16 pm

Free Bagel of '05 wrote:Your stats prove exactly what I originally hypothesized. In the first five weeks he received far and away the most carries (16) inside the 5, nearly twice as many as the next player. In that span he was ineffective, finishing dead last among NFL RB's in terms of YPC inside the 5. His TD pct. was 3rd to last, ahead of only Clinton Portis and Ron Dayne.

did some searching and it turns out it was portis and Dayne. Remember this was Portis' first year, not the stellar one he had last year. He's certainly improved since then. As for Dunn at the goaline that seemed to be at the beginning of the year. Then all of a sudden they became concerned with preserving Dunn's health and gave some carries to duckett. Still don't think he's that good of a goaline guy, duckett that is.
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Postby armchair » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:44 pm

How much does this trade boost Norwoods value? What round do you all think would be good to take him in? I just picked him up in the 16th. Good or Bad pick?

P.S. Also does this increase or decrease ducketts value and where should he be targeted. Thanks for the help all.
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Postby My team is injured » Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:16 pm

Free Bagel wrote:Is Duckett even good at goalline carries? People just equate big with good around the goalline, but I recall seeing quite a bit of Warrick Dunn in the game inside the 10 over the last few years and he's the smallest starting RB in the league (9 TDs for Dunn in 2005), and now Duckett is headed to a team who's coach and OC have zero history of ever using a goalline RB, and it's not like Portis hasn't been banged up before (his whole career really) and still gotten the goalline work every stop of the way.


warrick dunn had 9 TDs in 2004.. only 3 last year

and I'm not looking too deep into the statistics, but yes, duckett has been used as a goalline back for a while now with ATL and used fairly well...

in 2005, duckett and dunn each had 15 carries on 1st/2nd/3rd and goal downs... dunn had a very slight edge on ypc but only had 1 TD compared to 7 TDs for duckett.. additionally, duckett is clearly being utilized by ATL more frequently in goalline situations than the rest of the field as his ratio of carries is 1:1 with dunn in the above situations while just 106 carries to 265 carries for dunn on all other downs

I think duckett was hurt part of 2004 and dunn was hurt part of 2003... duckett got 7 TDs to 1 TD for dunn in 2003 in the above situations and both had 5 TDs apiece in 2004 in these downs

duckett has had 27 rushing TDs the past 3 seasons... I doubt there are all that many backs who can boast these numbers.. I'd be highly surprised if he didn't get his share of TDs this season (probably in the 5-8 range even with portis healthy) not to mention his share of non-goalline carries.. every backup is going to spell a starter for some carries and I'm not saying duckett will take that many more than another backup but I don't see how portis doesn't get at least slightly downgraded due to the duckett pickup..
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