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Portis - no more goaline carries?

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Postby lmcjaho » Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:16 pm

As a Portis owner last year I can't recall how many times I nearly gave myself a fit of apoplexy screaming at the TV because Betts was in the game inside the 10 (at least early in the season) but I can say it was A LOT.

Duckett to Wash doesn't bother me too much because Betts already (and much more importantly the dump pass to Cooley) was stealing a good chunk of goalline touches already so I don't see Duckett affecting the bottom line that much.
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Postby Kilroy » Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:51 pm

I got Portis at 1.9 in my first draft (before the injury) and if I had it to do over again knowing what I know now I'd still have taken him in that spot.

The 'Skins had a chance to add depth at RB, which considering the Portis' Injury and Betts' Hammy was something they sorely needed. I'm a H**luva lot more concerned about CP's wing than I am TJ's impact on Portis' value.

If Portis' Shoulder is Good, his numbers will be too.
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Postby DGroundhog » Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:56 pm

skibrett15 wrote: Still don't think he's that good of a goaline guy, duckett that is.


Duckett (last 3 years) (37.5% TD's on 1st and goal attempts)
Situation G Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD
1st & Goal 24 32 46 0.0 1.4 12

Portis (last 3 years) (27.3% TD's on 1st and goal)
Situation G Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD
1st & Goal 27 44 84 0.0 1.9 12

Betts has scored 3 TD's in 11 1st and goal attempts for the same 27.3% rate as Portis.

Who would you give the ball to at the goal line?
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed Aug 23, 2006 7:39 am

skibrett15 wrote:
Free Bagel of '05 wrote:Your stats prove exactly what I originally hypothesized. In the first five weeks he received far and away the most carries (16) inside the 5, nearly twice as many as the next player. In that span he was ineffective, finishing dead last among NFL RB's in terms of YPC inside the 5. His TD pct. was 3rd to last, ahead of only Clinton Portis and Ron Dayne.

did some searching and it turns out it was portis and Dayne. Remember this was Portis' first year, not the stellar one he had last year. He's certainly improved since then. As for Dunn at the goaline that seemed to be at the beginning of the year. Then all of a sudden they became concerned with preserving Dunn's health and gave some carries to duckett. Still don't think he's that good of a goaline guy, duckett that is.


Doh, that's the opposite of what I was hoping would turn up when looking back at that post :-o
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Postby moochman » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:39 am

Free Bagel wrote:
moochman wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:As a Portis dynasty owner I'm a little bit worried, but man are you guys overreacting. 1.04 to mid-second because of TJ DUCKETT??? Seriously?

If you dropped him for the injury that's one thing, but even after that he was still sitting in that 1.04-1.06 range. TJ Duckett...c'mon.


Absolutely no reason to risk that shoulder with goalline carries with Duckett there. Mid-second round is a bit of a knee jerk reaction. Portis will still get enough scores to merit a first round pick. Assuming his shoulder is sound.


Is Duckett even good at goalline carries? People just equate big with good around the goalline, but I recall seeing quite a bit of Warrick Dunn in the game inside the 10 over the last few years and he's the smallest starting RB in the league (9 TDs for Dunn in 2005), and now Duckett is headed to a team who's coach and OC have zero history of ever using a goalline RB, and it's not like Portis hasn't been banged up before (his whole career really) and still gotten the goalline work every stop of the way.

I can't say for sure, but when I wrote that article/write-up on the myth of the Peyton/Edge relationship after the 2005 season where I pointed out that Edge was the second worst goalline back in the league (statistically), I think I remember Duckett's name showing up near the bottom of that list when I was looking it over.

Again, I don't know if I'm remembering that correctly, anyone got any numbers on Duckett's effectiveness on the goalline?

Also, let's not forget that Washington's 3rd string RB just went down with a season ending injury, so it makes sense for them to add a RB.


No, the point is not whether Duckett is a great goal line back, it's that they don't want Portis to take the pounding.

I do think Duckett will be a great goalline back for the Skins and will fill in nicely should Portis miss time.
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Postby BigMusky » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:45 am

Free Bagel wrote:As a Portis dynasty owner I'm a little bit worried, but man are you guys overreacting. 1.04 to mid-second because of TJ DUCKETT??? Seriously?

If you dropped him for the injury that's one thing, but even after that he was still sitting in that 1.04-1.06 range. TJ Duckett...c'mon.


I think the move for Ducket implicates the injury is severe enough that you can not count on Portis for 16 games this year. If he even lose 5 TD to Ducket also that moves him down to a late first rounder. ...so couple that with injury and you are into second. He went from a 1500 15 TD guy to know a 1000 yard 9Td guy with loss of playing time and TD's to ducket. That is why I think the move in draft position is merrited. This is not even a worse case schenerio where he might miss more then a couple of games. What is the best you can assume from Portis now?
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Postby ivanhack » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:15 pm

BigMusky wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:As a Portis dynasty owner I'm a little bit worried, but man are you guys overreacting. 1.04 to mid-second because of TJ DUCKETT??? Seriously?

If you dropped him for the injury that's one thing, but even after that he was still sitting in that 1.04-1.06 range. TJ Duckett...c'mon.


I think the move for Ducket implicates the injury is severe enough that you can not count on Portis for 16 games this year. If he even lose 5 TD to Ducket also that moves him down to a late first rounder. ...so couple that with injury and you are into second. He went from a 1500 15 TD guy to know a 1000 yard 9Td guy with loss of playing time and TD's to ducket. That is why I think the move in draft position is merrited. This is not even a worse case schenerio where he might miss more then a couple of games. What is the best you can assume from Portis now?


I think you're overestimating the drop in total yards and underestimating the drop in TD's.

I'm still projecting at least 1300 yards, but 6 or 7 td's.

I think when healthy, Portis will still get most of the carries between the 20s.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:16 pm

OK, here is why Duckett is a Redskin, now....

In 2005, Clinton Portis' rushing stats when the Redskins had fewer than 3 yards for a 1st down:

42 carries for 92 yards...

2.19 yards per carry

Clearly he is not, and never was, a short yardage kind of back... Gibbs realized that in the '05 draft when he drafted fullbacks with a full 1/3 of his draft picks, and he realizes that now...

Duckett is being brought in to be the short yardage back... Clinton Portis never really was the short yardage back... So, I'm failing to see where Duckett's presence steps all over Clinton's toes...
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Postby Twisted Sister » Wed Aug 23, 2006 12:51 pm

All I've got to say is ... DANG!! My crystal ball is good!!! ;-D

Yes, I was just discussing a hypothesis about the coaching mentality of goaline carries for CP... and now the TJ Duckett trade!!!! Seals the deal for me, Duckett on 1st and goal from the 5.

CP = 8 TDs. I don't think this will hurt the overall yardage too much.

I hope I land picks 1-4 in my redraft... Tiki + big 3 = the only sure things.
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Postby slowride » Wed Aug 23, 2006 1:08 pm

Tiki will get less goalline carries than Portis, and he is 7 years older. He might not be currently injured, but you can put me down for believing a 31 year old rb isn't a sure thing.
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