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Postby Dr. Duran Duran » Wed Aug 23, 2006 4:11 pm

Joeybagadonuts wrote:Cower has said this repeatedly all summer long. To me it doesn't increase FWPs value because it's all a lot of words at this point. Nothing is to keep him from saying Vernon Hayes is looking fantastic tomorrow.
This is meaningless until you see Willie push it in from the one yard line in a preseason game...atleast.


I'd have to agree, things could change, but for now, Parker looks a lot more draftable. We'll have to just wait and see for the time being.
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Postby steelerfan513 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 4:28 pm

biju wrote:Here's what I'm seeing in regards to this:

Parker is a quick back who poses a lot of threat to break off a big run. The problem is his considerable lack of production against more formidable defenses. Parker had 5 games above 100 yards last year that all came at the expense of some pretty lousy defenses (Tennessee, Houston, Cincinatti, Cleveland and Detroit) in huge blowout games. The reason he gained notoriety was because most people thought he was a stopgap until Duce Staley became healthy (I think is was Duce?) and he was an unknown at the beginning of the year and generally overlooked and undrafted by the fantasy community despite knowing he was going to start the season. Then he ripped off two of the aforementioned 100 yard games back-to-back to start the season.

However Parker struggled when the Steelers were up against good defenses or against an offense that puts up a ton of points (and thus was relegated to an air attack). Roethlisberger was injured last season but only two "bad" games came at this expense (Parker was injured during one as well as not playing in another Ben-less contest).

Even if Parker gets goal line carries I don't think he's capable of doing much. It certainly will net him extra TDs when the Steelers play bad defenses but I think the problem will still stand against the better teams and Pittsburgh will use a pass attack down deep (and thus the reason to semi-target Heath Miller this year).

Just some food for thought.


that is some good logic. however, much of this can be attributed to inexperience. you have to remember that this was his first year as the starting running back, and inexperience breeds inconsistency. go back to Ladanian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander's first seasons of starting, and you will see the same thing. Both only had four 100 yard seasons in their first years as the full time starter. that doesnt mean that FWP will be better than them b/c he had 5, but it shows that even the best running backs in the NFL suffer from inconsistency in their first years. with that year of experience under his belt, he should gain some more consistency and be able to perform better against better defenses.

like mattb said, he has bulked up on muscle, making him not just a better short yardage back, but a better back overall. that combined with his year of starting under his belt should help him put up better overall stats and lose some of the inconsistency and lack of performance against better defenses.
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Postby biju » Wed Aug 23, 2006 4:48 pm

steelerfan513 wrote:that is some good logic. however, much of this can be attributed to inexperience. you have to remember that this was his first year as the starting running back, and inexperience breeds inconsistency. go back to Ladanian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander's first seasons of starting, and you will see the same thing. Both only had four 100 yard seasons in their first years as the full time starter. that doesnt mean that FWP will be better than them b/c he had 5, but it shows that even the best running backs in the NFL suffer from inconsistency in their first years. with that year of experience under his belt, he should gain some more consistency and be able to perform better against better defenses.

like mattb said, he has bulked up on muscle, making him not just a better short yardage back, but a better back overall. that combined with his year of starting under his belt should help him put up better overall stats and lose some of the inconsistency and lack of performance against better defenses.


I can agree that experience can certainly play a role in how consistent a player's skill is, there's a strong correlation between Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson that isn't so with Willie Parker. The big one being the teams they started on.

The San Diego Chargers were a terrible team when Tomlinson joined them and still only won 5 games that year. Likewise, the Seahawks were terrible in 2001 when Shaun Alexander took over for Ricky Watters as the starting runningback. That team went 7-9.

Parker's Steelers went on--as we all know--to win the Superbowl and had a 11-5 season record.

I'm certainly *not* saying this is reason to bump Parker up on your draft cheatsheets, but let's temper the optimism some. He still shouldn't be valued much higher than he is right now.
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Postby Sixxgunn » Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:00 pm

I'm starting to love my ten team winner's league now. S-Jax at 9, Caddy at 12, Boldin at 29, Chambers at 32 then FWP at 49. Awesome! Those guys are idiots.
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:55 pm

Of course he'll be getting the short yardage carries....I traded him this offseason. And in the process (a lot involved) I also ended up with Portis (now hurt) and the draft pick of the guy with Dunn (value up). :,-(
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Postby steelyoface » Thu Aug 24, 2006 9:38 am

Maybe it seemed as if FWP was having trouble in some games...but that could also be attributed to the fact that the Steelers Oline didn't really come together until their last run. Not to mention that probably more than half the games he played in he was sparingly used to allow The Bus to get his carries. Parker was held back IMO.
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Postby gablefan » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:17 am

Not only was he held back, the OC has never had to game plan with a shifty Speed back before. I think Wizz will have entered some new plays to tak advantage of his speed. I am not saying top 10 FF RB but I expect a pretty good upgrade this year.
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Postby steelerfan513 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:27 am

gablefan wrote:Not only was he held back, the OC has never had to game plan with a shifty Speed back before. I think Wizz will have entered some new plays to tak advantage of his speed. I am not saying top 10 FF RB but I expect a pretty good upgrade this year.


honestly, top 10 wouldnt surprise me. last year, in a basic scoring league, he came in 13th, so if he goes up, it will be hard for him not to be top 10.
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Postby gablefan » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:20 am

Alright then top 10. My league last year he wasn't 13th he was 18th.....
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