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Postby biju » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:40 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Hard time seeing Watson top5 this season.

#1- Brady spreads the ball

#2- NE is a run first and run second team within the 5 yardline


I'm not saying he'll be a top 5 TE this year but those two reasons you gave are the blueprints for top TEs.

I know I'm only going on one year's worth of stats but the of the top 10 TEs from last year only two of them didn't have a top 10 RB (or a combination that would have essentially made a top 10 RB). On top of that, only two of them had top 10 WRs on the team. I didn't do any digging past one year so it could have been simply an anomoly, but it's interesting even if it was a one time stat.
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Postby stomperrob » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:09 am

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Postby Kensat30 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:06 pm

biju wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Hard time seeing Watson top5 this season.

#1- Brady spreads the ball

#2- NE is a run first and run second team within the 5 yardline


I'm not saying he'll be a top 5 TE this year but those two reasons you gave are the blueprints for top TEs.

I know I'm only going on one year's worth of stats but the of the top 10 TEs from last year only two of them didn't have a top 10 RB (or a combination that would have essentially made a top 10 RB). On top of that, only two of them had top 10 WRs on the team. I didn't do any digging past one year so it could have been simply an anomoly, but it's interesting even if it was a one time stat.


Good points. I just think that with Brady tends to pass to whoever is open, and that no goto WR or TE will ever develop there. This is the reason why I don't want to put Watson in the top5 primarily. I think he will need a high yardage output season for that to happen, in the range of 800-900 yards.

Do you realistically see Watson with 8-10 TDs? With the way that NE likes to use multiple TE sets, and pass to the 2nd TE around the goalline, and even bring in defensive players at the goalline to compliment their goalline RB heavy approach... I have a hard time seeing Watson put up surprising TD totals this year. As a position the TEs in NE generally score well, but no one guy is going to get the large bulk of those TDs, let alone every single one of them.

Don't get me wrong, I think Watson has a very good chance to get into the top10, but top5 I really question. I have a real hard time seeing Watson catch 70+ passes needed to get high yardage totals, when Brady is one of the few QBs in the NFL who can routinely get the ball in 8 different guys' hands week in and week out.

What is a top5 TE worth nowadays anyways? Ever since the 5-yard touch rule TE scoring has skyrocketed. Some combination of about 120 points should about do it. Realistically speaking, Watson is one of about 10-12 guys who can potentially score that many points, but I think he falls in the range of unlikely for the reasons listed above. After that there is a big group of TEs that hovers somewhere between 80-100 points and Watson fits in very nicely at the upper end of this range. Definitely a startable TE..

120 points=
600/10
700/8
800/7
900/5
1000/3



Year by year stats of total TE scoring in NE:
2005- 733/9 (127.3)
2004- 688/9 (122.8)
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Re: Watson

Postby BrutallyHuge » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:09 pm

DraftDodger wrote:With Rivers throwing to Gates, I think there's a lot of opportunity for other TEs to grab the #1 spot. Vernon Davis and Ben Watson will certainly be in the mix.


Vernon Davis is so raw it's crazy. With Mr. Tiny Hands throwing it to him, the guy doesn't have a shot of being a top 10 TE, let alone top 1.
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Postby Humpback » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:15 pm

Watson and Davis are actually very similar physically. Watson has the advantage of having a full NFL season under his belt and an all-pro QB throwing to him. Top-10 is pretty certain IMO, top 5 within reach, not very likely though.
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Postby xted30 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:41 pm

Maybe I'm partial because I waited to draft Watson, but I think he's in for a great season, especially with Branch out. He has good speed, no I don't think 8-10 TD's is completely crazy as he might break a long one every now and then. I think he'll have somewhere around 700 yds and 7 TD's when all is said and done. I'll take that all day every day from a tight end in the 10th round.
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Postby Azrael » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:55 am

xted30 wrote:Maybe I'm partial because I waited to draft Watson, but I think he's in for a great season, especially with Branch out. He has good speed, no I don't think 8-10 TD's is completely crazy as he might break a long one every now and then. I think he'll have somewhere around 700 yds and 7 TD's when all is said and done. I'll take that all day every day from a tight end in the 10th round.


Yeah, people keep saying that "the Pats spread the ball around so much". Maybe so, but if Watson is going to act as No. 1 option on the Patriots, that's still good for 70-80 catches, 700-800 yards and 6 or 7TDs. I'll take that any day for a double digit round pick.
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Re: Ben Watson

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:46 pm

DbacksAllTheWay wrote:With speculation that Deion Branch is leaving, many people think Watson will be a big beneficiary. Would you place him ahead of guys like Heath Miller for this year, in the case that Branch leaves?


I would put him ahead of HEath Miller under any circumstance. The only reason I would consider Miller above Watson is in a TD only or a heavily weighted TD league.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:48 pm

Azrael wrote:
xted30 wrote:Maybe I'm partial because I waited to draft Watson, but I think he's in for a great season, especially with Branch out. He has good speed, no I don't think 8-10 TD's is completely crazy as he might break a long one every now and then. I think he'll have somewhere around 700 yds and 7 TD's when all is said and done. I'll take that all day every day from a tight end in the 10th round.


Yeah, people keep saying that "the Pats spread the ball around so much". Maybe so, but if Watson is going to act as No. 1 option on the Patriots, that's still good for 70-80 catches, 700-800 yards and 6 or 7TDs. I'll take that any day for a double digit round pick.


That's a good theory. But even in NE no WR has topped 1,000 yards in over 5 years. All the hype Branch gets every offseason for the last couple of years, he still has yet to even break the relatively modest 1,000k mark. And when you are talking about a TE getting somewhat close to that, I get skeptical. Daniel Graham can light the world on fire in the first half and dissappear in the 2nd half. Tom Brady just spreads the ball too damn much.

Watson can start the year as the #1 TE in the league, and then fall off as Brady starts finding his TWO rookie TEs. I consider that much less far-fetched than Watson being the goto guy all year long and catching 80 passes..
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:50 pm

Azrael wrote:
xted30 wrote:Maybe I'm partial because I waited to draft Watson, but I think he's in for a great season, especially with Branch out. He has good speed, no I don't think 8-10 TD's is completely crazy as he might break a long one every now and then. I think he'll have somewhere around 700 yds and 7 TD's when all is said and done. I'll take that all day every day from a tight end in the 10th round.


Yeah, people keep saying that "the Pats spread the ball around so much". Maybe so, but if Watson is going to act as No. 1 option on the Patriots, that's still good for 70-80 catches, 700-800 yards and 6 or 7TDs. I'll take that any day for a double digit round pick.


Check current drafts, Watson has skyrocketed up into the middle rounds. I see him going ahead of Chris Cooley in some instances (a guy who has already reached the 700/7 range).
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