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My list of players who will way outperform their draft spot

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My list of players who will way outperform their draft spot

Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:11 am

QB - Jake Plummer - I see Plummer going in the 10th and 11th round most the time at the earliest. I honestly think he can put up the same numbers as a Dononvan McNabb. Take Plummer an extra round early if you are taking a high risk high reward guy like Kurt Warner as a safe backup, or load up on the other position players and make Plummer your starter.

Aaron Brooks - Dont make Aaron Brooks your starter, but draft him as a backup QB and Brooks just may overcome your original starting QB if it happens to be a guy like Roethlisberger, or even Drew Brees. Brooks has been a very good fantasy QB in the past, and he has the best deep threat in football history in Randy Moss. Brooks has always been a bit underrated in the fantasy world, but he has tremendous upside this year with a strong running game, his scrambling ability to get an extra couple rushing TD's or so, and of course Randy Moss. Try to get him by round 11 or 12 and draft him with a smile on your face, he will be a steal.

Trent Green - Trent Green is going right around round 8 or 9, maybe grab him a round earlier than that and take advantage of the off year he had last year. Trent Green has arguably the best offensive line and the best running game with the most consistent pass catching tight end in my opinion. His recievers arent anything special, but when you have all day to throw, you have to get open eventually and Eddie Kennison will be the guy to do that. Trent Green had a lower TD total, but he also had a lower interception total last year as well, and he still threw for 4,000 yards for the 3rd consecutive season. Expect another 4,000 yard season with 25+ TD's and a low interception total. Trent Green has every right to be the #1 QB on your fantasy team.


RB - Willis McGahee - Willis McGahee I have seen fall to as late as the late 3rd round, which is obscene considering this man's talent. McGahee has the ideal size in a running back when you are looking for a back to shoulder the load and he can do just that. Not only that, but McGahee also has increased his speed from last season, hence the 61 yard TD breakaway this preseason already. McGahee's longest run last year was a 27 yard run against the Saints. I've watched McGahee in preseason and he does look quicker, and he does look faster, I am not basing this on his long TD run alone. Also expect more scores from Willis who is already a premier talent in the league due to his improved offensive line (Mike Gandy, Tutan Reyes, Melvin Fowler, Chris Villarial, Jason Peters, that is very much improved over last years Mike Gandy, Bennie Anderson, Trey Teague, Chris Villarial, Mike Williams). Grab McGahee in the early-mid 2nd round and expect big things.

Chester Taylor - Finally Chester Taylor gets full playing time and doesnt have to share the load. He will be the lone back in Minnesota and he should get about 1200 yards rushing, and 8 or 9 TD's. Also he is a good recieving threat out of the backfield. I see Taylor going in the 5th and 6th round. Make sure you get him as either your 2nd RB or your premier backup.

Kevin Jones - OK, so last year was a huge headache for those who drafted Kevin Jones in the late 1st early 2nd round. This year he is dropping to round 6 or later consistently. Get Jones on your team as your backup and I would expect him to overcome the production of one of your starters. He will have a more consistent passing game this year with Jon Kitna, and of course you know the tremendous WR to make sure the passing game is solid. The defense is also slightly improved, so maybe Detroit can keep up with a couple of teams and get the chance to hand the ball off to Kevin Jones as much as they want to. Whatever you expected out of Jones last year is more than attainable for Kevin Jones this year.

Reuben Droughns A very solid back that I see going in rounds 4 and 5 a lot. He can shoulder the load all by himself and nobody will threaten his playing time. He is a good sized back so he can handle the goal line carries. He is the premier player on the Browns offense, he will certainly run for right around 1300 yards and get about 10 scores. He is a reliable #2 RB for the 2006 season.

Mike Anderson - You will need something to happen to Jamal Lewis in order to have Anderson have much value, but if he does end up getting full starting time than expect Reuben Droughns type of production. You can get Mike Anderson very late in the draft and he will perhaps go undrafted, but its an oppurtunity to get a starting back on your team (eventually) and the least he could do for you is provide great trade bait. But I fully expect a 1,000 yard season for this back if he is starting by week 5.

WR - Lee Evans - Lee Evans goes around round 5 or 6, make sure you get Evans in early round 5. He very well could be a top 10 fantasy Wideout by years end and he would be in good company. Evans and Losman have already developed a great chemistry and when Losman started last year, Evans played very well last year (for example, the 3 TD game in Miami). Whatever Lee Evans does in December, you can expect him to do the whole season this year. Draft Evans as your #2 wideout and expect around the same numbers you would be getting from your #1 wideout. Evans WILL NOT disappoint.

Andre Johnson - Andre Johnson falls to round 4 or 5 frequently. Andre Johnson wont be getting double teamed this year as often with Eric Moulds on the other side. Johnson will get more looks and he will get more receptions, yards, and TD's than he ever imagined getting last year. Draft Johnson and expect a 1,000 yard season with 7 TD's at the very least, his huge upside could make him eventually the top wideout in fantasy football but we will save that conversation for another day.

Derrick Mason If I could define Derrick Mason in one word it would be consistency. Every year he puts up good numbers, and this year his back with QB Steve McNair with whom he had a great chemistry with. Mason doesnt have the upside that Lee Evans and Andre Johnson have, but he will remain consistent and you can get him in the 8th round and have him perform as good as a 5th round WR would do (not counting Johnson and Evans).

Terry Glenn - One of Bledsoe's favorite target and Owens hasnt finished a season since 2001 and one. you can get Glenn in rounds 9 or 10 most of the time and make sure you get him and expect the same numbers he put up last year.

Donte Stallworth- Very fast wide reciever with very good ability. He should be the top option in Philadelphia this year and could have a huge season. With the new trade I dont know what his draft spot will be but try and get him in round 9 or round 10.

Joe Horn - Already getting along great with QB Drew Brees, and he is the top option in New Orleans. He was injured last year, but this veteran will be back and he still has a couple more good years in football. He is this years Keenan McCardell.

Ernest Wilford - Matt Jones has a bunch of talent, but Wilford is also a very good option to throw to and I would trust him more than I would Jones. Wilford goes in rounds 12 and 13 usually at the earliest, so you can get him and expect the same numbers Jimmy Smith put up last year.

TE - Ben Watson Watson is a wide reciever in a tight ends body, and he is more strength than the average tight end as well, with very good leaping ability. Watson is the top recieving option in New England if Branch gets traded and and is my top candidate to be this years Antonio Gates. Get Watson in the 9th round and feel VERY confident with him as your starting tight end.

LJ Smith - McNabb likes to spread the ball around and LJ Smith is a very reliable target, Ive seen Smith go in round 11 and I have seen him go undrafted. If you dont have a tight end in the late rounds, go with Smith and he wont be too far behind guys like Jason Witten in terms of production.

Chris Cooley Chris Cooley is the #1 tight end in Washington and Washington likes throwing to tight ends when they get down to the goal line. Another year like last year seems to be in the making for Cooley where he was the 3rd most productive TE in fantasy football behind Gates and Shockey. Even with the year he had last year, he is still falling to rounds 7 and 8. He very could be a top 5 fantasy TE again this year.

Kellen Winslow jr. - A lot of guys forget about Winslow in drafts, dont be one of those guys. He will enter the season with a chip on his shoulder and he is still arguably the best pass catching tight end prospect this game has ever seen. Winslow is my #2 candidate to be this years Antonio gates. I see Winslow go in rounds 12 and 13, take the risk and get him in round 10 or 11, and you will understand why he was taken with the 6th overall pick a couple years ago.

K - Rian Lindell He has nailed 2 50 yard field goals with ease in preseason and Buffalo's offense is moving down the field a lot more in preseason. McGahee and Evans will add more TD's this year than drives stopped in the red zone, but still, Lindell will get plenty of chances to kick a field goal. He normally goes undrafted, so just get him in the last round of the draft and he will make a good kicker.

Lawrence Tynes - This years Shayne Graham, plain and simple.

Def - Atlanta - An already solid defense added John Abraham, Lawyer Milloy, and drafted Jimmy Williams. Atlanta's defense gets taken in round 13, but sometimes goes undrafted. If you are late in the draft and dont have a defense, than go with this years most underrated defense and pick Atlanta.

Baltimore - Last year Baltimore was hands down the best fantasy defense to get. Than guys like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, the Ravens 2 biggest player makers, got hurt. With Lewis and Reed back, Trevor Pryce added, and nobody significant from last years defense released, expect the Ravens to be a top 3 defense again and arguably the best one. Baltimore's defense gets taken in usually in round 11, make sure you get them, there is just too much upside here.




I could add a few more to the list, but this all off the top of my head right now. Take these players with confidence in the draft.
Last edited by NikkiSixx on Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby BigMusky » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:15 am

to give that post any value at all, you should put what you think their draft position is.
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Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:39 pm

BigMusky wrote:to give that post any value at all, you should put what you think their draft position is.


Yes, I agree, I made this post much more in depth.
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Postby saundman2000 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:00 pm

I assume he's going with ADP. If that's the case, it doesn't really matter.

It would be cool to see how many spots above the ADP you think they should be though.

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Postby biju » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:04 pm

My take:

Plummer - I don't think he'll put up numbers near McNabb personally, but in the 10th and 11th round he's a great value. I would expect in my leagues however that he'll get taken maybe just a bit before that however.

Brooks - He'd be a fine backup for me if I already had a top 5 QB (by my calculations at least) but if I already had a shakey QB like Brees I don't know if I'd want Brooks.

Trent Green - I think he's going too high. He's not going to produce another 4,000 yard year since Edwards style is a conservative clock control game with a ton of running. It doesn't help that while running a route Eddie Kennison could disolve into dust from old age.

Willis McGahee - I don't think any competitive league with 10+ teams would let McGahee fall into the 3rd round.

Chester Taylor - I think he's going to be one of the biggest busts of the season. The team needs another year.

Kevin Jones - No comment until all of my drafts are done.

Reuben Droughns - I think he's going right around where he should and there's is a marginal value increase at his draft position. Personally I would rather take a #2 WR where most folks are picking him up.

Mike Anderson - I think anyone that drafts Anderson is going to be severely disappointed when they realize he's the Ravens' FB. Even if Lewis is injured they're going to have Musa Smith take over. Anderson is a worth case scenario.

Lee Evans - If the passing game comes to life he'll be a steal where he's going. The guy has talent. The problem is I don't see that happening.

Andre Johnson - This one is probably a good bet. He has the talent and the only thing missing in Houston is an O-line. I'll bet Kubiak has fixed that already.

Derrick Mason - The only thing I see increasing for Mason is TDs. I don't think he's going to become the 1,400 WR some people see him as. His value is pretty good right where people are picking him.

Terry Glenn - I disagree here bigtime. The only way Glenn gets value is if TO doesn't play.


Donte Stallworth - Moving to a new team two weeks before the season starts isn't a good sign to me.

Joe Horn - He's no spring chicken and if he's injured he won't be able to bounce back quickly--last year was a perfect example of that. If he stays healthy though he'll definitely be a great pick.

Ernest Wilford - He could certainly outproduce his draft average, and probably will.

Ben Watson - Agreed.

LJ Smith - Agreed.

Chris Cooley - This is the one pick that I'm 100% certain (write it down, put it on my gravestone) will not live up to his draft position. He's going to be a big bust this year and someone in every league is going to be angry at him from offseason 2007.

Kellen Winslow - Probably, but it's hard to tell at this point. I've drafted him on a majority of my teams this year as a #2 TE so I think the value is there at that point.

Kickers - I don't know and honestly don't care.

Atlanta - No comment. :-D

Baltimore - They're going to be better than the #4 Defense taken off the board? I seriously doubt that.

I like some for sure but I don't see it in others. Maybe my leagues are different that yours.
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Postby freeling_prideful » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:31 pm

Just replying to the Baltimore comment above, I've seen Baltimore go a lot later than the No. 4 DEF off the board...in some cases they're the 8th or 9th taken, and last until the 12-14th rounds. Obviously if someone takes them in the 9th round they're probably a solid pick, no bargain, but if someone gets them at the very end of the draft that is a great value.
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Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:49 pm

biju wrote:My take:

Plummer - I don't think he'll put up numbers near McNabb personally, but in the 10th and 11th round he's a great value. I would expect in my leagues however that he'll get taken maybe just a bit before that however.

Brooks - He'd be a fine backup for me if I already had a top 5 QB (by my calculations at least) but if I already had a shakey QB like Brees I don't know if I'd want Brooks.

Trent Green - I think he's going too high. He's not going to produce another 4,000 yard year since Edwards style is a conservative clock control game with a ton of running. It doesn't help that while running a route Eddie Kennison could disolve into dust from old age.

Willis McGahee - I don't think any competitive league with 10+ teams would let McGahee fall into the 3rd round.

Chester Taylor - I think he's going to be one of the biggest busts of the season. The team needs another year.

Kevin Jones - No comment until all of my drafts are done.

Reuben Droughns - I think he's going right around where he should and there's is a marginal value increase at his draft position. Personally I would rather take a #2 WR where most folks are picking him up.

Mike Anderson - I think anyone that drafts Anderson is going to be severely disappointed when they realize he's the Ravens' FB. Even if Lewis is injured they're going to have Musa Smith take over. Anderson is a worth case scenario.

Lee Evans - If the passing game comes to life he'll be a steal where he's going. The guy has talent. The problem is I don't see that happening.

Andre Johnson - This one is probably a good bet. He has the talent and the only thing missing in Houston is an O-line. I'll bet Kubiak has fixed that already.

Derrick Mason - The only thing I see increasing for Mason is TDs. I don't think he's going to become the 1,400 WR some people see him as. His value is pretty good right where people are picking him.

Terry Glenn - I disagree here bigtime. The only way Glenn gets value is if TO doesn't play.


Donte Stallworth - Moving to a new team two weeks before the season starts isn't a good sign to me.

Joe Horn - He's no spring chicken and if he's injured he won't be able to bounce back quickly--last year was a perfect example of that. If he stays healthy though he'll definitely be a great pick.

Ernest Wilford - He could certainly outproduce his draft average, and probably will.

Ben Watson - Agreed.

LJ Smith - Agreed.

Chris Cooley - This is the one pick that I'm 100% certain (write it down, put it on my gravestone) will not live up to his draft position. He's going to be a big bust this year and someone in every league is going to be angry at him from offseason 2007.

Kellen Winslow - Probably, but it's hard to tell at this point. I've drafted him on a majority of my teams this year as a #2 TE so I think the value is there at that point.

Kickers - I don't know and honestly don't care.

Atlanta - No comment. :-D

Baltimore - They're going to be better than the #4 Defense taken off the board? I seriously doubt that.

I like some for sure but I don't see it in others. Maybe my leagues are different that yours.



I appreciate the detailed feedback, but I am sticking to my list of "sleepers" and I think most of my predictions will pan out, I will bump this a few weeks into the season.
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Postby MotorCityKitties » Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:11 pm

Biju,

I totally agree on Cooley. He had 3 TD's in one week. I'd rather have guys like LJ, Troupe, Watson b/c they will be more consistent.
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Postby GreatestShowOnEarth » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:19 pm

Im really riding the Matt Jones bandwagon behind Kensat this year. Ive routinely been picking him up in the 6th and 7th rounds. How can you pass up a No. 1 reciever that late?
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:25 pm

Chris Cooley
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