bellings wrote:Are defenses draft low because they are unpredictable? I was doing a spreadsheet to get my pre-draft rankings, and I tabulated the points above replacement. As a rough estimate, I simply took the expected number of points earned and subtracted the points earned by best option that wouldn't be starting. (For example, 10-team league, 2 QB's, then I would substract off the 21st QB's points.)
Everything looked pretty normal, until some defenses popped up in the 40's, which would correspond to the 5th round of the draft. From what I understand, nobody EVER drafts a defense in the 5th.
So here's the question: If a defense is expected to give you 5th round value, why does nobody take one there? Only thing I can think of is that they are unpredictable.
The main reason is the points differential. It's the same reason that kickers are drafted low: the difference in points from one to the next is lower than in the general population (RB's, WR's, etc.) There are a couple exceptions to this, like Chicago and Carolina, but their points differential only bumps them up a couple rounds.
That, and the unpredictability, and strength of schedule, and a hundred other things. Your team D probably won't make or break your team.