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Why are defenses drafted so low?

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Why are defenses drafted so low?

Postby bellings » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:39 pm

Are defenses draft low because they are unpredictable? I was doing a spreadsheet to get my pre-draft rankings, and I tabulated the points above replacement. As a rough estimate, I simply took the expected number of points earned and subtracted the points earned by best option that wouldn't be starting. (For example, 10-team league, 2 QB's, then I would substract off the 21st QB's points.)

Everything looked pretty normal, until some defenses popped up in the 40's, which would correspond to the 5th round of the draft. From what I understand, nobody EVER drafts a defense in the 5th.

So here's the question: If a defense is expected to give you 5th round value, why does nobody take one there? Only thing I can think of is that they are unpredictable.
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Re: Why are defenses drafted so low?

Postby KoopaTroopa211 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:45 pm

bellings wrote:Are defenses draft low because they are unpredictable? I was doing a spreadsheet to get my pre-draft rankings, and I tabulated the points above replacement. As a rough estimate, I simply took the expected number of points earned and subtracted the points earned by best option that wouldn't be starting. (For example, 10-team league, 2 QB's, then I would substract off the 21st QB's points.)

Everything looked pretty normal, until some defenses popped up in the 40's, which would correspond to the 5th round of the draft. From what I understand, nobody EVER drafts a defense in the 5th.

So here's the question: If a defense is expected to give you 5th round value, why does nobody take one there? Only thing I can think of is that they are unpredictable.


The main reason is the points differential. It's the same reason that kickers are drafted low: the difference in points from one to the next is lower than in the general population (RB's, WR's, etc.) There are a couple exceptions to this, like Chicago and Carolina, but their points differential only bumps them up a couple rounds.

That, and the unpredictability, and strength of schedule, and a hundred other things. Your team D probably won't make or break your team.
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Postby woodson_28 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:05 am

that, and since taking a DEF is universally accepted as a late rd pick, there would be no reason to take a great DEF in the 5th or 6th round (like CHI or CAR) if the next DEF didn't go until rd 12. you could wait until the 10th rd and "steal" CHI.
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Postby FltMech » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:15 am

IF you do not have one of the top D's than consider this. Look at the team match up's for the week and pick up a D on the waiver wire that is playing a weak O, when that week is over look at the next week and find the favorable matchup. so on and so on.... It has worked great for me
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Postby Vixtor » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:41 am

The best defense and 10th best defense will only have about 35 point difference and there is no way of knowing which among the top 5 or so defenses which one will be best. Also, you can play matchups to some degree just picking defenses off of waivers and playing them against Alex Smith & JP Losman.
The facts have no meaning.
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Postby lmcjaho » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:50 am

Vixtor wrote:The best defense and 10th best defense will only have about 35 point difference


When making statements like this it is always best to remember that this type of thing is HIGHLY scoring settings dependent - in my league the difference from last years #1 and #10 was over 70 points... #1 to #5 was 35 points...

It seems like an obvious thing but it bears noting that league settings can have a big impact on this kind of thing...
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Postby maddog60 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:21 am

You guessed right in the beginning. Unpredictability is the primary reason defenses go late.
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Postby DevilDriver » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:48 am

Baltimore last season is a good example of the unpredictablity of defenses.
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Postby RugbyD » Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:34 am

2 reasons:

1) trhere are always a couple Ds that are undrafted and turn out be be really good.

2) Defense is by far the easiest position to play matchups
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Postby Plindsey88 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:36 am

Because most of your league-mates will ignore the position and only carry (1) defense, which means there are PLENTY of defenses available on the wire week-to-week... Because of this, it is relatively easy to play match-ups on defense every week, and by playing the right match-ups you can easily outscore the top defense over the course of the season...

Keep an eye out for my weekly match-up rankings in the waiver wire forum beginning in week 4... Over the course of three seasons, I've developed a formula that has proven to be remarkably accurate at predicting the week's top defenses week in and week out...
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