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Postby Wesley Walker » Sat Sep 02, 2006 12:28 pm

Kensat30 wrote:I discredit any list that doesn't have the New York Jet's at the very bottom. And the Raider's are WAY too high.

I'm gonna sell the Miami Dolphin's hype as well.


No fair. The 49ers are worse.
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Postby Gibbs Baby!!! » Sat Sep 02, 2006 12:43 pm

Wesley Walker wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:I discredit any list that doesn't have the New York Jet's at the very bottom. And the Raider's are WAY too high.

I'm gonna sell the Miami Dolphin's hype as well.


No fair. The 49ers are worse.


Just make the niners and jets 31a and 31b. It really doesn't matter...
"We couldn’t do diddley poo offensively, we couldn’t make a first down, we couldn’t run the ball, we didn’t try to run the ball, we couldn’t complete a pass - we sucked." ~ James Ernest Mora
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Postby Wesley Walker » Sat Sep 02, 2006 12:55 pm

mysticphysh wrote:Power lists are crap.


I agree completely. There's the implication, with the word "power," that there is some elaborate mathematical forumla used in generating these rankings. But, of course, there's way too many variables to make any such formula and, so, it's a composite of peoples' gut feelings, what everyone else is saying, and what people did last year.

To a large degree, there is a group think thing going on, where certain teams are touted or dismissed as hopeless, and others go along with it because they're more or less discredited if they don't.

And then there's last year's records. If anyone hasn't noticed, NFL games often turn on instances of random chance -- a stiff wind coming up as the winning field goal would be kicked; a lucky bounce on a fumbled ball; a botched play that somehow still results in a first down.

Sure, you can say that most of the time the better team will win. Trouble is, we never really know when it's the better team winning versus some instace of random chance deciding the game. So the winner is defined as the best. Which is why power rankings are stupid. You really have to just play the games and wait and see what happens.

boojumsnark25 wrote:huh? Not sure what you're talking about bud. Ronnie and Ricky had very very similar numbers last year, including the same YPC average, if i'm not mistaken.


They had similar numbers because they played the exact same position on the exact same team. They've both made it to the NFL, so we can assume that they're within the top 1% of all football talent in the world. So they're both good players who are likely to perform similarly under more-or-less identical situations.

Of course there is something separating LaDanian Tomlinson from TJ Duckett, but I think there's less separating LT from, say, Kevan Barlow. If they were on the same team, I think people would be surprised by how much better Barlow would perform (on the Chargers) or how much worse LT would perform (on the 49ers).

On this same line of thinking, I can't fault those power rankings for not dropping the Colts further down the list after the departure of Edge. To say Addai and Rhodes are not as good is to make a wild guess, a fairly baseless projection. They're not as good because they've not had any chance to prove themselves in a situation similar to that from which Edge benefitted: a dominant passing game and loads of open lanes for running the ball. If either guy fails to live up to Edge's numbers, it could be just as much a result of the complete offense dropping off a bit (which you'd think it would have to, eventually) as that back's lack of ability compared to Edge.
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