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Santana Moss

Postby Wesley Walker » Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:25 pm

Santana was the fourth best receiver last year, as far as total fantasy points go, so why is he being drafted pretty consistently lower than that? What's the downside? What's the fear?
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Postby mikus » Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:45 pm

Last year was a fluke. The Redskins added more WRs this offseason. Brunell is aging. There are three excuses for you.
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Postby Wesley Walker » Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:47 pm

mikus wrote:Last year was a fluke. The Redskins added more WRs this offseason. Brunell is aging. There are three excuses for you.


I don't buy it. Anyone else?
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Postby S-W-I-T-C-H » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:08 pm

This year they will be more commited to the run, Brandon Lloyd is a beast and will take some catches away, this year they are going to using Chris Cooley more, and look whos throwing to him.

I have him in my second teir but in no way will I put him in the same class as Chad Johnson and Tory Holt who have been consistent over the years in almost every game they've played in.

I think in fantasy football when you look at the numbers at the end of the year they can be a bit miss leading. When you look at individual games you find that consistency will lead you to the Super Bowl.
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Postby fightinfitz_08 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:10 pm

he was inconsistent last season. he had big games early in the season and late but performed poorly for most of the season. he scored td's in only 5 weeks and topped 100 yds only 5 times.
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Postby bdrotoronto » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:11 pm

Wesley Walker wrote:
mikus wrote:Last year was a fluke. The Redskins added more WRs this offseason. Brunell is aging. There are three excuses for you.


I don't buy it. Anyone else?

I buy it.

Moss himself might not be any different, but I just don't trust Brunell to get him the ball reliably, he's not very good to begin with, plus there are now a whole spate of receivers (Cooley, Randle El, Lloyd) who he can conceivably toss the ball to.
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Postby Keyser_WV » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:12 pm

Wesley Walker wrote:
mikus wrote:Last year was a fluke. The Redskins added more WRs this offseason. Brunell is aging. There are three excuses for you.


I don't buy it. Anyone else?


I buy it. He won't even sniff those numbers again.

Redskins are going to finish last in the NFC East. You heard it here.

Portis is the only guy I would touch in WASH fantasy wise.

Moss and Lloyd will go way to high for me.
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Postby S-W-I-T-C-H » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:12 pm

fightinfitz_08 wrote:he was inconsistent last season. he had big games early in the season and late but performed poorly for most of the season. he scored td's in only 5 weeks and topped 100 yds only 5 times.


This is exactly my point...I totally agree.
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Postby freeling_prideful » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:32 pm

There's generally a case to be made--when guys have career years, the next year afterwards is significantly worse.

Brunell's not a premier QB any more, and his deep arm isn't great (Santana's strong suit is speed and going long). As others earlier have noted, he's also inconsistent.

Still, it's all a matter of opinion as to how low he'll fall. I could still see him getting 1300/7 this season, which is good enough to be ranked right around or just slightly below where Reggie Wayne/Hines Ward/Chris Chambers are.
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Postby Wesley Walker » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:06 pm

I'm suspicious of the arguments that 1) Brunell is aging (because so is Peyton, so is Bulger, etc.) and 2) new receivers have been added (because Harrison stays high in value even after Wayne and Stokely come along; and because Moss was the #1 before and he's the #1 now).

Moss's career may be too young to say that last year was a career year. But so far, then yes, it was a career year. And so I accept the argument that his numbers will probably drop.

I just don't see too much changing significantly for the Skins, so I think he can still have a pretty big year.

And then there's this argument of inconsistency. He's not Hines Ward, who is a possession-type receiver. Lots of catches for smallish gains. Santana is a deep threat, a guy who will catch fewer balls and break off the occassional huge gain for a TD. He'll never be as consistent as Hines, but Hines will never be the big play threat that Santana is either.

So maybe I'd rank him like this:

top tier
S Smith
T Holt
C Johnson
L Fitzgerald

next tier
R Moss
M Harrison
T.O.
Boldin
Ward

Then Santana near Chambers, ahead of the next tier of...

Wayne, Plax, Roy Williams

And this ranking scheme isn't too different, I notice, from the Cafe's August re-draft rankings for WRs, where Santana is ranked 12.6 average (with an outlier of 20th, where someone ranked him, God knows why). So without that 20th spot, he'd be ranked 11.7 on average, ahead of Wayne but still behind Ward.

Lastly, can I say that sure, I'd rather have a guy who scored one TD every week than a guy who scores 16 TDs in one game. But, in '05, Wayne had fewer 100-yard games than Moss, and scored in the same number of games (5) with none of those being more than single-TD games.

As for his "only 5 100-yard games," that's more than Chad Johnson had and more than Chambers had.

So Moss shouldn't be #4, or even #9, but I think he deserves to be ranked 10th or 11th.
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