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Finally revealed -- my sleeper for the season...

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Postby moochman » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:07 am

ampant wrote:
TODAY'S STUDS: There are a number of interesting matchups today that seasoned fantasy owners should be willing to exploit.

For instance, the Eagles take on Houston, which should mean big games for most of Philly's offensive starters — especially Brian Westbrook and Donovan McNabb.


Wow! I never would have thought of that!

I was going to add more sarcasm into it, but decided not to. I would just like to point out that all of your "golden ticket" picks pretty much busted

Jake Plummer - 138 yards, 3 INT, no scores
Thomas Jones - 59 total yards, no score
Roy Williams - 36 total yards, no score
Ben Watson - 50 total yards, no score (not terrible for a TE)

Sweet picks ;-D


Hindsight is always 20-20, but since you're throwing stones: did you sit Alexander against the Lions, Nostradamus?
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Postby ampant » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:47 pm

moochman wrote:
ampant wrote:
TODAY'S STUDS: There are a number of interesting matchups today that seasoned fantasy owners should be willing to exploit.

For instance, the Eagles take on Houston, which should mean big games for most of Philly's offensive starters — especially Brian Westbrook and Donovan McNabb.


Wow! I never would have thought of that!

I was going to add more sarcasm into it, but decided not to. I would just like to point out that all of your "golden ticket" picks pretty much busted

Jake Plummer - 138 yards, 3 INT, no scores
Thomas Jones - 59 total yards, no score
Roy Williams - 36 total yards, no score
Ben Watson - 50 total yards, no score (not terrible for a TE)

Sweet picks ;-D


Hindsight is always 20-20, but since you're throwing stones: did you sit Alexander against the Lions, Nostradamus?


Nope. And there are very few situations where I would sit him. I did sit Kevin Jones in favor of Frank Gore though, and had the highest point total in my league this week. Also, I am not writing FF football articles giving marginal advice and posting links to them here. (I assume he did that to a) look smart, and b) get feedback, which I am giving.)

Maybe I was in a bad mood/grumpy, but I thought it was funny that the article telling us all to pick up the niner's 3rd string back included a bunch of other information that was obvious (starting Eagles players vs. HOU), going 0 for four on "golden ticket picks," and justifying his recommendation of Robinson based on the argument that "Frank Gore was an unknown quantity" and ignoring the fact that Maurice Hicks has also looked good.

At most, if Gore goes down, Robinson and Hicks will split time a-la Gore/Barlow last season. Neither guy is head and shoulders above the other IMO, and that will only happen for a game or two unless Gore gets taken down for the season. Frankly, I think Gore is the most promising player on the whole niners team. In all of my start/sit posts I have been telling people that he was going to surprise a lot of folks this year. People were arguing that he would be a bad start on the road playing from behind, I thought they were wrong, and I think we saw some of that last week.

I just thought the whole article was wasted energy. I don't feel like I was overly harsh (maybe a little sarcastic), but I guess it goes to show that it doesn't take much to be a so-called "expert" (see mick and vick, or listen to last thursday's 1st edition on the )Bay Area's) KNBR fantasy football show. I'm not taking personal shots here, but I am disagreeing with the article's premise. I think there is a very slim chance that Robinson will have any sort of lasting fantasy impact this year, and would at best be considered a deep-sleeper longshot in very deep leagues (14+ teams)

So sure, go ahead and write articles and make predictions. Just don't be upset when somebody disagrees with you, or points out that most of the things in the article just happened not to pan out. Anyways, I don't mean any disrespect to Warpig, and I appreciate the fact that he actually took the time to write something and was trying to contribute. All I am bringing is an opposing viewpoint.

In all fairness, we all make bad calls, and I actually expected better from Lee Evans and Thomas Jones (but I was not surprised by Williams and Plummer - though I didn't think Plummer would suck as bad as he did). The Rams/Broncos game shocked the hell out of me. (Rams playing defense but not scoring tds on offense!). This is all really guessing anyways.
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Postby J_rob_the_ Baller » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:56 pm

everyone is entitled to their own opinions.

Personally, as a PSU fan, I like Robinson. Ive seen what he did at penn state, and i think that in time, he will be a stud in the NFL. I dont think he will be a stud this year, and I dont think he will be a stud on the 49ers, but that is besides the point. As a Gore owner in my dynasty league, I picked up robinson as my backup to gore, and happened to grab hicks later on to fill a roster spot, but i think that if gore goes down, robinson will be the man.

As for the other predictions, I would have agreed with every one of them on saturday. So would most people. Its hard to predict what will happen each week, especially in week 1. There is no reason to get on someones back about it. I am sure that everyone here who has given advice in the sit/start forum, or the draft/trade forum has at one point given advice that turned out to be really bad.

It happens. Last year st louis was horrible against the pass. Its pretty fair to assume that plummer would have a great day. It didnt work out like that, but on saturday it sure looked like a sure thing.

Anyway, good article. Everyone needs to remember that when talking about young talent, just about everything you can say is an opinion.
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Re: Finally revealed -- my sleeper for the season...

Postby Guru13 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:00 pm

Warpigs wrote:Here is my fantasy column for 9/10/06. It was written earlier this week and in print by midnight last night (Saturday) for Sunday's paper. I finally reveal my true sleeper for the year, and while he didn't do anything today, I still feel he will be HUGE this season. Any comments??


http://www.dailyitem.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060910/SPORTS/609100319
i love ya warpigs, but I think your bonkers. :-b


gore rocks!! (sell high :-D )


and I totally agree with taking brett to the promise land, just don't see it happening sadly.
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Postby ampant » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:25 pm

I thought about it a bit. And to Warpigs, sorry if I came off like an a-hole. While your Eagles/Hou comment was a bit obvious, None of your start/sit picks were terrible. And I understand why a lot of people were high on Plummer, etc. . . It was certainly a surprising week 1, and as I mentioned before, the Rams/Broncos games raised my eyebrows.

So sorry if I came off like a prick. It's easy to hack on someone, especially after the fact. I still don't think Robinson will amount to much this year, though (mabye seeing some RBBC time with Hicks if Gore gets hurt).
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Postby Warpigs » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:36 pm

Thanks for the feedback. First of all, I wasn't post to "look smart". If I was doing that, I wouldn't have linked to my column AFTER all my "Golden Tickets" for the week busted (see my post time of 8:36 pm). Seriously -- think about it. Also, understand my audience. I'm not officially writing this article for the cafe, but for mostly common people who are just getting into fantasy. I also defined my "Golden Tickets" in a previous columns as not "sleepers", but players who people know about already but don't consider true studs. Most people who had Thomas Jones on their roster this past week had a tough time deciding to start him or someone else. I know I did -- and I stood behind my predictions by starting Roy Williams and TJones over Burress and Frank Gore. Am I disappointed, of course. Am I mad with my decisions? No. I felt confident they would be solid picks considering the matchups and I went with it. I'm still going to win this week's matchup in that league and usually fair better than most in leagues, so it isn't like I'm throwing darts in the dark.

As far as Robinson, he is my "true" sleeper. A sleeper isn't a Thomas Jones or someone else that we've all heard of. He is, like my column stated, basically a guy that could break out of no-where to contribute fantasy-wise. Did you predict Anquan Boldin would be a stud receiver the start of two seasons ago? Would people call you crazy for even considering that Boldin would be a great receiver when there were numerous other receivers taken before him in his draft? I think he started the season as a fifth-string WR. Robinson, contrary to some other posts here, is officially the No. 2 back OVER Hicks. His value doesn't come from his chances of cracking the starting lineup within the next five minutes in San Fran, but in his versatility. There are ways too many question marks with the organization. If Gore holds on this season to the starting RB gig, there are still enough questions at WR (think Bryant-Battle are a truly dangerous long-lasting duo?). How about their QB situation? Alex Smith already has gotten some flack from the coaching staff and management. When the Niners tank this season and Smith looks like dog turds, the organization will need to do something for a breath of fresh air -- I see Robinson's dual talents being too sexy to pass over. Like at PSU, Robinson is a QB with mobility and vision. Lastly, like I said in the column, Robinson's extra perk is his eligibility. Wouldn't it be great to have a starting QB filling your WR2 slot? We would love it if we had a consistent 15-point scorer as a WR2, but as a QB, there is much more opportunities for consistent scoring. The same for RB. If he winds up getting some starts or major time at either QB or RB, you have a great WR2 on your fantasy squad.

The bottom line is that every person who predicts fantasy football matchups makes mistakes. I had a poor run this week, but you don't need to be undefeated to win championships. I'll bounce back next week.

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Postby Warpigs » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:41 pm

ampant wrote:I thought about it a bit. And to Warpigs, sorry if I came off like an a-hole. While your Eagles/Hou comment was a bit obvious, None of your start/sit picks were terrible. And I understand why a lot of people were high on Plummer, etc. . . It was certainly a surprising week 1, and as I mentioned before, the Rams/Broncos games raised my eyebrows.

So sorry if I came off like a prick. It's easy to hack on someone, especially after the fact. I still don't think Robinson will amount to much this year, though (mabye seeing some RBBC time with Hicks if Gore gets hurt).


As a RB2 on a fantasy team, you're right... Robinson may not be a super pick -- unless he gets a true starting gig at QB or RB. However, I think you're overlooking his appeal as a WR2. I'm not saying I'd start him as a WR2 next week, but within a month's time, he may be scoring more than many people's WR2s. Remember that some people are stuck with some pretty poor options for WR2. If you want a sleeper, Robinson is my pick. The idea of picking a sleeper is to identify someone BEFORE they become a fantasy starter or even hit anyone's fantasy roster. It takes a little risk to predict a "true" sleeper. We all know the risk -- but also take a minute to consider the upside, especially with the eligibity he has. Did you read my respond post a few minutes ago??
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Postby ampant » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:33 pm

Warpigs wrote: Did you read my respond post a few minutes ago??


Now I have. Look. You made some good points. I'll apologize again. I was just in a crappy mood and took it out on you. Sorry.

Again, your picks weren't bad. I think I wrote my original post after midnight and and a crappy day. I have heard waay worse advice given out, and it wasn't fair to jump on your case after the fact, when i probably wouldn't have done it before the fact.

Robinson is one of those guys that could have some value if a bunch of other stuff happens 1st. He's a lot like Correll Buckhalter or Vernand Morency in my mind. He could take advantage of a situation if it develops. But chances are probably less than 10% that it will happen for more than a game or two. And I like Buckhalter's and Morency's chances a lot more (if Westy goes down or Lundi falters or gets hurt, those guys are in prime position with less competition at the #2 spot - if Gore goes down, I still see Hicks getting plenty of carries whether he is or isn't the official #2).

To respond to your versatility point . . . At WR, you have Antonio Bryant (who is very talented, and would have had a huge game if not for a penalty) and Vernon Davis (who was probably the best receiver available in the draft, regardless of WR/TE designation). Throw in other serviceable guys like Hicks, Battle, and Johnson (other TE) and the shuffle for playing time gets pretty crowded.

Gore also catches the ball very well, the coaches are high on him, and seem ready to use him. I doubt very much that Robinson would ever supplant him in his role unless he suffers a serious injury.

As far as his eligibility as a QB, I also doubt very much that they would ever pull Alex Smith. The chances that Robinson would ever see playing time at QB are remote when you have a QB that has shown huge strides since last year, and you are paying him ridiculous money. You are going to develop the young guy that you sold the farm for in hopes that he will become the future of the franchise. Robinson's chances of success at the QB position in the NFL are even more remote when you consider the speed of the NFL game, the complexity of the offense, and the fact that it takes time to develop timing and rythym with your receiving targets. I know I wouldn't ever start a guy (in my WR slot, my RB slot, or my QB slot) if I was banking on him earning points by playing at the QB position for the niners. Maybe if I was in a super-deep league and decimated by injuries.

Basically, Robinson may be able to play 3 positions, but I doubt his ability to play all three well at the NFL level (especially well enough to start on a fantasy team). Also, I'm not sure that most fantasy software/websites would allow you to start him as an RB if he were starting the game as a QB. I don't know for sure, because I've never run into a situation like that, but it's a good bet that a lot of people wouldn't be allowed to do it.

So sure, Robinson is an interesting pick, and has some deep-sleeper potential, but the probability of that value being realized in terms of significant fantasy impact (especially at a position other than RB) is remote. His "versatility" (sepecially as a QB) doesn't even enter the picture really.

Just my opinion.
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Postby J_rob_the_ Baller » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:16 pm

Do you get paid to write these articles? if you do, where do i sign up for a deal like that?
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Postby Under_the_Radar » Sun Sep 24, 2006 5:57 pm

You said it first brother. ;-D
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