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Your help and opinions please

Postby walman339 » Mon Aug 26, 2002 5:41 pm

Hi everyone. I enjoy reading your thoughts.

I am in a complicated league (from a draft perspective). It is a 12 team keeper league in which we keep 2 players. All teams must keep one player. Then, all teams can either keep a 2nd player from their last year squad OR they get a free "pre-draft" pick from the available FA list. That "pre-draft" pick is in reverse order of last year's finish. Sorry for all that detail.

I think I am really sitting pretty draft-wise this year. I have the second overall pre-draft pick (only three are being taken) and then I draft 4th and 6th in the 1st (live) round (trades made that possible). Because there are 24 total players kept before the draft starts, and 3 more will go before my 4th pick, its not like there is a ton of stud talent at RB and QB but certainly some solid performers. I do not have a 2nd round pick but draft 4th in the 3rd.

Finally to my questions:

1) Should I go RB or QB with my pre-draft pick? I am leaning towards RB. My league's scoring makes Stud QBs and stud RBs about equal.

2) My 1st keeper RB is Faulk. If I go RB with my other pre-draft pick, of the available RBs at that time I feel it really comes down to A. Thomas or D. McAllister. I am leaning towards Duece but wanted your opinions.

3) There are a ton of average QBs available for my 4th and/or 6th pick. They include Trent Green, Jay Fiedler, Michael Vick, Drew Bledsoe, Kerry Collins, Tim Couch, Trent Dilfer, Jake Plummer,
Shane Matthews, Tom Brady, Vinny Testaverde, Brad Johnson, Quincy Carter, Rob Johnson, Gus Frerotte, Drew Brees. Anyone in that list just burn you up?

4) For my 6th pick I think I will go with a stud WR. Knowing my league (all guys I grew up with) WRs don't go till the late 2nd round and beyond. Figuring I will have stud RBs and a decent QB already I think I want to tie up a good WR. Of Owens, Harrison, or Moss who would you take? I am an Indy fan but leanig towards MOSS.

5) Am I making a mistake at taking an WR in the 1st round? Should I play it safe and go QB with my 6th pick? Remember I don't have a 2nd round pick.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Wal
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Postby terpfan » Mon Aug 26, 2002 5:51 pm

between deuce and thomas i like thomas but its very close. im not a keeper league fanatic but if u could get RANDY MOSS after 27 players are allready gone, why would u not be jumping all over that??? if it were me id take him with the 4th pick. than take owens with the 6th??? how sick that would be. faulk, thomas, moss, and owens? did i read sumthing wrong, or do i know nothing about keepers or what? i dont know y any1 would think of taking one of those qbs over moss or owens? then get the best qb available in the 3rd. that sounds like a GREAT team to me.

if im wrong sum1 straighten me out. maybe i will learn sumthing from this too...
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You make a good point

Postby walman339 » Mon Aug 26, 2002 9:23 pm

I appreciate your comments and you make a good point. Some additional follow-up info about my league.

I forgot to mention a critical fact. Our starting lineups are probably not real standard: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 2 Def.

There is a strong bias in my league for: 1) QBs. 2) RBs. In that order, btw. I know that is slightly different than conventional wisdom but there is at least some reason for it. TDs. TDs are the major scoring emphasis of our league and yards are a distant 2nd. Let's face it an average QB scores way more TDs and has more yards on any given week versus even the stud WRs. Based on that, I can already tell you the 24 "keeper" players kept were either QBs or RBs. One player kept two QBs, one other (me) kept (or will keep) 2 RBs. In the first two rounds I can say with certainty that the next 24 players taken will be QBs or RBs to even out the starting line-ups for QB and RB.

SO given that extra knowledge, would you still go two stud WRs, sit out the 2nd round, then try to pick up QBs in the 3rd and 4th rounds? My cheatsheet isn't handy but I would guess my only options would be QBs #25-32. Makes me nervous. At the same time I like the idea of WR 2some of Moss/Owens/Harrison with Faulk and A. Thomas or Duece.

Other thoughs?
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Just a little bump

Postby walman339 » Wed Aug 28, 2002 8:38 am

I am really leaning towards A-Train now because of the offense he is in but I haven't pulled the trigger either way.
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Postby terpfan » Wed Aug 28, 2002 2:20 pm

ok that does make a difference. having one low ranked qb is ok but having two would also make me nervous. u think the next 24 picks will also be running backs and qbs? y dont u take the best qb on the board (bledsoe) and the best wr (moss) in the first round. then, if one of the big three wrs are still available at ur next pick grab them and go qb, wr with ur next picks.

if not go with ur second qb in the third (unless every1 has there starting qbs allready, if thats the case u could wait a round probly) and then take wrs in the next two rounds. i dont really know how u guys draft so do u think this will work?

The bottom line is whether u think one of the big three will slip to u in the third. if they wont i think u gotta take them in the first... but again i dont really know ur league...

one more question, are passing, running, receiving TDs the same amount of points?
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Follow-up

Postby walman339 » Wed Aug 28, 2002 3:23 pm

Good comments. Yes, passing, receiving and rushing TDs are all worth the same. We get 1 point for every 10 yards rushing/receiving/passing. -2 for each fumble/interception. As you will see below I don't think any of the top 3-4 WRs will make it to my pick in the 3rd.

As for the draft, I do believe the 1st and 2nd rounds will be 90%+ QB and RB pick-ups. Therefore it is my guess that, at best, when I draft in the 3rd round (4th in that round) I will have a pick of QBs ranked 24th - 32nd. I can easily live with that for my 2nd QB but to rely on two of those guys all year could hurt.

On the plus-side I think all teams will have their QBs in place by the 3rd round so in the 3rd and 4th I should be able to draft the best of the rest QBs while having 4 studs (2 RBs, 2 QBs) already on my bench.

On the downside I believe my only chance at more than one of the top 4 WRs is to take them in the 1st round. The other 11 teams will start picking WRs starting with the 1st pick of the 3rd round. Therefore, let's assume for the moment I take Moss in the first round plus Bledsoe. When I draft 4th in the 3rd, unless my analysis is wrong the best WR I will have available to me will be Holt or Horn. Good guys, don't get me wrong, but will I spend all season thinking about what could have been? I mean, again, I feel like in the first round I can snag 2 of these 3: Moss, Owens, Harrison.

So it boils down to (BTW, I know for a fact pick #5 in the 1st round will be a QB)(remember I don’t have a 2nd round pick):

Option 1:

Keepers - Faulk, McAllister
1st round: 4th Pick - QB (Bledsoe), 6th pick - Moss
3rd Round: 4th pick - WR (Holt)
4th Round: 8th pick - QB or WR, whichever looks like the better talent

or

Option 2:
Keepers - Faulk, McAllister
1st round: 4th Pick - WR Moss, 6th pick - Owens or Harrison
3rd Round: 4th pick - QB Brees, Dilfer equivalent
4th Round: 8th pick - QB Brees, Dilfer equivalent

or

Option 3:
Keepers - Faulk, McAllister
1st round: 4th Pick - QB Bledsoe, 6th pick – QB Brady
3rd Round: 4th pick - WR - Best available
4th Round: 8th pick - WR - Best available

I think Option 3 is out. Just not much difference in the 6th pick QB stat wise versus one I could get in the 3rd round.

Option 2 gives me the best talent. There is a lot to be said for that.

Option 1 is the safest bet.

My league is a bit trade happy so one other reason I am thinking about Option 2 is that, should I find my QB situation in dire straights, I would have excellent talent in which to upgrade QB via trade.

OK long winded. Again I appreciate your help. Any other thoughts?

Walman
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Postby terpfan » Wed Aug 28, 2002 3:51 pm

i commend u on all the effort u seem willing to put into this. i dont even use apostrophes or capitals! :-D

well now... i do agree that option 3 is out. and i agree on ur comments about 1 and 2.
a few random thoughts:
now that i think about it green is about on bledsoes level. whoever u like better...
u could try trading draft picks. try to trade down one of ur first round picks in order to get a second round pick (u could still pick moss, right?) and u should b able to get a little extra (maybe alot). if u wanna target a top wr or two and u could get them in the late second than this seems like it could help.

the thing about having two top wrs is not necessarily that they will get the most points, but they will be much better than the wrs that your opponent has therefore giving u an advantage...

again its a tough choice between scenario 1 and 2. i wonder if anyone else has an opinion on this...?
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Postby Arlo » Wed Aug 28, 2002 3:54 pm

Interesting configuration! If you're right in your expectations of when WRs will start going off the board, I think you have two further options, especially considering your last comment that your league is trade happy:

4) Trade up: Do what you have to do to trade lower picks for a late second-rounder, and use the pick you gain to grab a stud WR.

5) Trade down: This is actually what I'd try. I think that if you pick a WR with one of your first-round picks, you'll be doing what the Bengals were criticized for in this year's draft: taking a very good player too early, and therefore losing overall value. If you believe the top WR's won't be taken before round three, imagine how good your team would look if you pulled off a trade such as (just speculating here) a 1st and a 4th-round pick for two 2nd-rounders....

Whatever route you choose, I think your league's unique constellation makes trading picks at least well worth thinking about. The payoff could be huge.
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Postby Arlo » Wed Aug 28, 2002 3:57 pm

Hmm... looks like terpfan beat me to the punch on the trade-down suggestion! :-)
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Postby terpfan » Wed Aug 28, 2002 4:31 pm

i was gonna suggest trading a first and third or fourth for two seconds but i was gonna assume any1 in the league would have 2 second round picks. however if they dont this seems like the best idea. i wish i was in ur position... good luck! ;-D
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