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Fast Willie - Top 10?? Maybe even top 5??

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Postby steelerfan513 » Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:50 pm

Willie is great against bad defenses, but he cant do well against the elite ones. starting him against the crappy defenses is always great, but if you have better options, dont start him when he plays teams like JAX, SD, Baltimore, etc.
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Postby knapplc » Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:51 pm

It's still way too early to make major predictions about FWP. He's only got three games under his belt as the primary back in Pittsburgh.

Give him time before crowning him a Stud or a Bust.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:27 pm

steelerfan513 wrote:Willie is great against bad defenses, but he cant do well against the elite ones. starting him against the crappy defenses is always great, but if you have better options, dont start him when he plays teams like JAX, SD, Baltimore, etc.


Outside of the studs like LT, LJ, SA, and maybe Portis/Rudi as well this is pretty much what you get out of any FF RB. They all get the majority of their numbers against the worse defenses and only put up good numbers against elite D's if they get a lucky short TD plunge. Why people ignore this is beyond me, just like it was beyond me that people didn't think FWP's numbers were going to improve as both he AND his situation got better.
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Postby bulger2holt » Tue Sep 26, 2006 6:00 pm

willie can go 80 yards on any given play. He was my second pick at 2:04 in a 12 team league. Sjax fell to me at # 9 and I am happy with both of these picks so far. 3-0 is my record and things are looking good so far.
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Postby MrTwo94 » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:36 pm

If he keeps getting the ball 29-30 times per game, sure. But Bill himself has said that he is aiming for 20 touches a game. So don't expect to see many more games like those two.
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Postby Mrpu » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:48 pm

I like FWP, especially when I landed him in the 4th round in a 12 team money league!!! Needless to say I'm happy with his production and I think he'll put up better numbers once they get the passing game going. ;-D
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Postby bulger2holt » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:02 pm

Mrpu wrote:I like FWP, especially when I landed him in the 4th round in a 12 team money league!!! Needless to say I'm happy with his production and I think he'll put up better numbers once they get the passing game going. ;-D


the 4th round ? wow. I took him in the second.
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Postby Heavyg25 » Tue Sep 26, 2006 11:41 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
steelerfan513 wrote:Willie is great against bad defenses, but he cant do well against the elite ones. starting him against the crappy defenses is always great, but if you have better options, dont start him when he plays teams like JAX, SD, Baltimore, etc.


Outside of the studs like LT, LJ, SA, and maybe Portis/Rudi as well this is pretty much what you get out of any FF RB. They all get the majority of their numbers against the worse defenses and only put up good numbers against elite D's if they get a lucky short TD plunge. Why people ignore this is beyond me, just like it was beyond me that people didn't think FWP's numbers were going to improve as both he AND his situation got better.


I just quit paying attention to all the neysayers at this point. I remember them all saying he wouldn't start very long last year when he took over as the starter. Then it was the fact that he wouldn't end the season as the starter. Now its that he can't make it as the primary back. Most of these people are the same people who swore last year he wouldn't last. Don't know why anyone would still be listening to them by now.
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Postby Rosstafarian » Wed Sep 27, 2006 1:53 am

Mrpu wrote:I like FWP, especially when I landed him in the 4th round in a 12 team money league!!! Needless to say I'm happy with his production and I think he'll put up better numbers once they get the passing game going. ;-D


I got him in the fourth, too. And I really wasn't even happy with the pick. But after getting Holt and Chambers in Rounds 2 and 3, I knew I needed a second running back desperately.

Needless to say, I'm thrilled now...
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Postby wizbang » Wed Sep 27, 2006 7:51 am

Outside of the studs like LT, LJ, SA, and maybe Portis/Rudi as well this is pretty much what you get out of any FF RB. They all get the majority of their numbers against the worse defenses and only put up good numbers against elite D's if they get a lucky short TD plunge. Why people ignore this is beyond me, just like it was beyond me that people didn't think FWP's numbers were going to improve as both he AND his situation got better.


THANK YOU! I'm amazed at how so many morons just can't get this simple fact. Outside of the truly, truly elite (which nobody is saying FWP is one) pretty much EVERYONE struggles against elite defenses while posting big numbers against weak ones. That is how not just fantasy but FOOTBALL works. How else would a team like Jacksonville or Baltimore or SD get such low AVERAGES. If #5-#15 RBs can run all over them that would be impossible. That the SAs, LJs and LTs can do this is what makes them special. Hence the "Big Three" talk.

Ultimately you have to look at averages. If you can afford to sit Parker against Baltimore then of course that is a good play. It's called playing the matchup game. IMO the only people who can ignore the matchup game at RB are SA (when healthy), LJ and LT owners and those who have no other decent options (which accounts for quite a few owners). If FWP scores 20 TDs then he'll enter that mold but pretty much nobody is claiming that.
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