Geez, a week ago it was wondering if he was even worth starting. Now the talk is about top 15 WR?
As I stated last week, he should hit 1000 yards easy, and 8-10 TD's should be on the horizon as well if he stay healthy.
I thnk he has potential to be a top 15 WR though. Week one he had a 75 yard TD called back because of a holding penalty. Week 2 he had a 70 yard reception and got knocked out at the 1 yard line. Week 3 he connects on a 58 yard TD pass.
He's shown some big play ability, but he isn't dependant on that. He'll get his share of red zone TD's as well.
He's big, fast, fairly physical and has a ton of potential. A huge year wouldn't surprise me given Frye's apparent ability. 8-10 TD's and 1200 yards would probably make him top 15, so yeah I think that is likely if he stay healthy.
I think 2nd year WR's is the new 3rd year WR for fantasy football - meaning WR's are getting thrown into the mix a bit earlier than before (especially higher picks - and I don't like the whole 'blue is the new black' analogy, but it warrants a tongue in cheek mention). The learning curve, youth movement across sports and need for production from draft picks is the reason.
I don't have any data to back that up, but it seems players are making an impact sooner now, and the 3rd year WR rule might be due for a re-evaluation. If you are a 3rd year WR trying to break out now, you might be considered a bust.
Let's look at '3rd year WR's'
Fitz - already broken out
Roy Williams - broke out year one, bounced, looking to rebound
Reggie Williams - may breakout, but previously viewed at as a possible bust so far
Lee Evans - grabbed some late season significance last year, looking to break out
Michael Clayton - Not this year
Michael Jenkins - Not with Vick throwing to him
Rashaun Woods - Bust
Devry Henderson - beaten out by rookie Colston, contributing
Darius Watts - bust
Keary Colbert - buried in the depth chart
Derrick Hamilton - who?
Bernard Berrian - breaking out?
Devard Darling - buried in depth cahrt, behind a 2nd year WR
Carlos Francis - who?
Samie Parker - not breaking out
Jericho Cotchery - WW darling - I don't believe
Earnest Wilford - 3rd WR behind RW and 2nd year M Jones
Compare that to 2nd year WR's
B Edwards - breaking out
T Williamson - breaking out
M WIlliams - bust, but was projected as a TE project by many
M Jones - break out candidate
M Clayton - breaking out?
R White - starting, probably won'[t break out with Vick
R Brown - breakout candidate
M Bradley - not breaking out
R Parrish - on the radar with Bills
T Murphy - who?
V jackson - sleeper in SD - breakout candidate
C Roby - who?
C Henry - putting up numbers as a #3 and sub for TJ Housh
B Jones - who?
That only gets you thru 3 rounds in 2005, but it appears there are more WR's breaking out in their 2nd year than will break out in their 3rd year.
...I guess I do have some data after all, although it's a small sample set.