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Quote from MNF got the wheels turning in my head...

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Quote from MNF got the wheels turning in my head...

Postby onnestabe » Wed Sep 27, 2006 3:57 pm

Saints' coach Sean Payton was quoted as saying something to the effect of "you have to forget how the player came to be on your roster." He was talking about the idea of forgetting the players' draft positions, salaries, trade value, etc. when deciding who starts and who makes the roster. I thought it was one of those things that you didn't necessarily think about, but made a lot of sense.

What I'm wondering is, at what point do you ignore how you acquired a player in fantasy football? Do you immediately throw out the draft results once you have your roster, or do you hold onto it as a tool for measuring trade value for your players? If you do use it to get a feel for trade values, how long is it still useful once the season starts?

It seems to me that you shouldn't use draft results to figure out the value you place on players, but maybe you should use it to get a feel for the value that other owners' place on players.

Taking that idea a little further, would that present problems down the line if you are playing against less-than-competent owners? For instance, we all love to draft against people who don't really know what they are doing, because they reach for players, letting them slip to you in the draft. But if they then use the draft results to figure out the trade value for players, you will never be able to trade for any of their players since they overvalued them in the first place.

Anyway, I thought it was an interesting idea and wanted to get the Cafe's take on it...
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Postby saundman2000 » Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:16 pm

I think it's definitely the mentality to havein fantasy football. Once the season starts, you have to forget about where you drafted players and instead about what they can do for you this week and the rest of the season. Team situations and injuries change the face of the NFL landscape week to week. Players values are variable and do not reflect the static value that they had at the start of the season.

I think it does matter quite a bit for trade value. If a player is drafted high, but you can see that he's really becoming worthless you now it is definitely worth your while to shop him around instead of dropping him outright.

People do remember which players were high draft picks and can overvalue them because of it.

On the other hand, you have to remember WHY that player was so highly coveted before the season started and if those reasons are still valid. You have to think twice before making a move with such players.


In the NFL, this mentality is great in theory, but in practice the coach gets pressure to get his highest paid players on the field. There are a LOT more politics involved in real life. It's a smart philosophy, but unless you are a future hall of fame coach, you can't take it too far without having to compromise for the GM, the owner, or the fans.
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Postby Matthias » Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:55 pm

saundman2000 wrote:On the other hand, you have to remember WHY that player was so highly coveted before the season started and if those reasons are still valid. You have to think twice before making a move with such players.


That's exactly it. Sure, you don't get any points awarded for draft position. But I don't think Chad Johnson is going to average 42 yards a game for the rest of the season. His past performance is just too strong of an argument. At a certain point, you can identify that there are differences this year from year's past (RBs losing a fullback, key blocker or whatever) that makes that prediction less certain. But I wouldn't completely discount it in any trade.
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Postby bobbing_headz » Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:53 pm

For me its very hard to abandon my draft mentality. If I see someone drop a player that is sucking but that was drafted really high I'm immediately interested. On the opposite side I rarely take chances on so-called "no name" players until I see them produce for a few weeks.
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Postby fiz » Wed Sep 27, 2006 8:34 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:For me its very hard to abandon my draft mentality. If I see someone drop a player that is sucking but that was drafted really high I'm immediately interested. On the opposite side I rarely take chances on so-called "no name" players until I see them produce for a few weeks.


that's exactly it. you rank players in a draft usually based on a track record of some sort, so you immediately forget that and go week to week will burn you in the long run. i also usually ride higher draft picks out for a while and im skeptical of new to the scene players and it takes a few weeks for me to believe...and i get burned both ways - you just have to know when to cut bait on certain players i guess
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Postby MatthewGeological » Wed Sep 27, 2006 8:45 pm

That's deep man...lol The way I see it is that who is going to give you points week after week.

Simple right. I agree with the above so that it is not frowned upon trading or sitting higher draft picks.

We can only predict what might happen in the season as far as who is playing and who is going to do well.

I have either come in third to first place the pst ten years in any fantasy leagues (BB, FB) and that is because I re-evaluate my team very early in the season. I believe by the third or fourth week you better have your team b/c the waiver wire is crap. (specifically FB not BB)

This doesn't involve injuries either.

Make your moves early!!!!! It has made me lots of money. Don't be hesitant b/c if you wait a week, that is a week too long IMHO.

Again...I don't EVER "lose" in Fantasy. 1st- thrd
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Postby spodog » Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:41 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:For me its very hard to abandon my draft mentality. If I see someone drop a player that is sucking but that was drafted really high I'm immediately interested. On the opposite side I rarely take chances on so-called "no name" players until I see them produce for a few weeks.


. . . in which case they are already gone in a good league.
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Postby fiz » Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:42 pm

spodog wrote:
bobbing_headz wrote:For me its very hard to abandon my draft mentality. If I see someone drop a player that is sucking but that was drafted really high I'm immediately interested. On the opposite side I rarely take chances on so-called "no name" players until I see them produce for a few weeks.


. . . in which case they are already gone in a good league.


yup. its something i try to improve on each season
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Postby Kilroy » Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:31 pm

saundman2000 wrote: People do remember which players were high draft picks and can overvalue them because of it.


I run into that a lot. I was offered Daunte Culpepper for Willie Parker a couple weeks ago. I, of course, refused. This shocked the other owner, who e-mailed me that "Daunte was my second round pick. You took Parker in the fourth. How is this not a good deal for you?"

:-B

Draft position means very little to me once the season starts. It's all about 'dem Tasty Points.
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Postby WickedSmaat » Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:49 pm

saundman2000 wrote:On the other hand, you have to remember WHY that player was so highly coveted before the season started and if those reasons are still valid. You have to think twice before making a move with such players.


This is true, but you have to remember, past performence is only part of the relevance of the drop. I'm sure a lot of people were happy with Lamont Jordan last year and happy to get him this year. I have the fortunate situation right now that someone dropped him in my money league and have put a claim on him to ride my bench hoping that he can bust out. I think trades are so much harder to execute for me in fantasy football than fantasy baseball. Will CJ come back? I think so. Will Culpepper? I have a hard time believing with what he did last year.

I'm still mad I blurted out Ronnie Brown a pick to early :-/ I got stuck with Caddy. Just glad he finally scored a touchdown last week on my bench...
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