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Gabriel WILL BE A TOP 20 WR

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Postby mattb47 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 2:15 am

S. Smith
T. Holt
M. Harrison
R. Moss
T. Owens
A. Boldin
L. Fitzgerald
C. Johnson
D. Jackson
Ro. Williams
R. Wayne
L. Coles
S. Moss
P. Burress
A. Johnson
D. Driver
M. Colston
C. Chambers
D. Stallworth
H. Ward

Those are 20 WRs in no particular order, all who I would have WAY WAY over Gabriel. Not to mention some others as well:

A. Bryant
T. Houshmandzadeh
J. Walker
T. Glenn
L. Evans
M. Muhammed
D. Mason
B. Edwards
Re. Williams
B. Berrian
G. Jennings

All of these guys I would at least consider putting ahead of Gabriel, so I'd say he's a way's down on the WR list for this year. It might be tough for him to crack the top 30, much less the top 20.

He currently resides at the #63 spot in one of my leagues....
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Postby ravenloft » Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:19 am

well R. Moss is on your top 20 and he has been total CRAP this year so there is always exceptions to the list.

like many have said if you have room it may not be a bad idea to pick him up while the spot light is not on him because he has the potential to get alot better.
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Postby R00k » Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:43 am

I dont know how much this matters but Jerry Rice speaks VERY highly of Doug Gabriel on Sirius radio. He is thinking he will become Brady's go to guy. He said this when Gabriel was traded to the Patriots. Throughout Gabriels carear I dont know if he's ever had a good QB throwing to him, until now.

We all know of examples of stud wrers who dont put up fantasy numbers when they have a sucky QB throwing them the ball.
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Postby ravenloft » Mon Oct 02, 2006 7:29 am

*cough* R.Moss*cough*
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Postby ateam » Mon Oct 02, 2006 8:18 am

He currently resides at the #63 spot in one of my leagues....
========================================

Ummm, you MAY want to preface that w/ the fact that he's only played 2 games! :-t

And in 2 career games w/ Brady, he's caught TDs vs. DEN & CIN.

I could care less that others undervalue DG, he's on my squad, and I'm not looking to deal him. I sat DBranch in lieu of DG this weekend, and now have bolstered my WR depth nicely off the WW. ;-)
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Postby mattb47 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 9:26 am

ateam wrote:He currently resides at the #63 spot in one of my leagues....
========================================

Ummm, you MAY want to preface that w/ the fact that he's only played 2 games! :-t

And in 2 career games w/ Brady, he's caught TDs vs. DEN & CIN.

I could care less that others undervalue DG, he's on my squad, and I'm not looking to deal him. I sat DBranch in lieu of DG this weekend, and now have bolstered my WR depth nicely off the WW. ;-)


Doesn't matter, finishing a top 20 WR is finishing a top 20 WR. There is no disclaimer of "well, he didn't play every game". If he's #63, he's #63.
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Postby Kensat30 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 11:59 am

mattb47 wrote:
ateam wrote:He currently resides at the #63 spot in one of my leagues....
========================================

Ummm, you MAY want to preface that w/ the fact that he's only played 2 games! :-t

And in 2 career games w/ Brady, he's caught TDs vs. DEN & CIN.

I could care less that others undervalue DG, he's on my squad, and I'm not looking to deal him. I sat DBranch in lieu of DG this weekend, and now have bolstered my WR depth nicely off the WW. ;-)


Doesn't matter, finishing a top 20 WR is finishing a top 20 WR. There is no disclaimer of "well, he didn't play every game". If he's #63, he's #63.


Look at points per game and come back to me. What is #63 points divided by 2 versus #20 points divided by 4. People who don't factor in games played are missing the boat on players a lot of times.
Hell, you have to factor in games played even when there is a change in roles. Get out the microscope, watch NFL shortcuts/replays and do some personal research. The top scorer/top target/game recap threads can only tell you so much.

My personal research is that Gabriel is a STARTING CALIBER FANTASY WR IN ALL LEAGUES, whose value is currently going under the radar . Top20 is within reach, if you ignore name value. Name value is keeping Randy Moss starting ahead of Marques Colston (it's a powerful drug).

How many weeks of 60/1 do you need to see before you start wanting to put this guy into your lineup, trade for him, or god forbid pick him up off the waiver wire. Another week of 6/70/1 and it could very well be TOO LATE. IE Reggie Williams.

The short and simple: When I watch Gabriel the past two weeks, I'm seeing a guy that is making plays down the field for the Pat's when no one else is. The guy is a threat in the redzone. I've watched Gabriel in his first real action as a Patriot in week 3 get something like 10 targets in the 4th quarter and appear to be Brady's goto guy going down the stretch. Then he follows up that performance with another solid fantasy day in a completely different dynamic the following week. That is not something to be taken lightly, when you've got a QB of Tom Brady's caliber with such a clear VACCUUM of talent at the WR position.

What difference does it make though? "#63 is #63"... do I really have to explain to you what a stupid statement this is? Do rankings not change from week to week? Do I have to explain to you how the #63 WR can score 20 points in week 5 and suddenly become the #30 WR? Or do I have to explain to you that the #20 WR can average 8 points for the rest of the season, while the #63 averages 12 points the rest of the season? Value is value.

Overall rankings have absolutely ZERO impact on a player's value going forward. Read that again, ZERO IMPACT on a player's value going forward. Points scored in week 1-4 are doing absolutely nothing to help your team going forward in this point in time.
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Postby ateam » Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:38 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
ateam wrote:He currently resides at the #63 spot in one of my leagues....
========================================

Ummm, you MAY want to preface that w/ the fact that he's only played 2 games! :-t

And in 2 career games w/ Brady, he's caught TDs vs. DEN & CIN.

I could care less that others undervalue DG, he's on my squad, and I'm not looking to deal him. I sat DBranch in lieu of DG this weekend, and now have bolstered my WR depth nicely off the WW. ;-)


Doesn't matter, finishing a top 20 WR is finishing a top 20 WR. There is no disclaimer of "well, he didn't play every game". If he's #63, he's #63.


Look at points per game and come back to me. What is #63 points divided by 2 versus #20 points divided by 4. People who don't factor in games played are missing the boat on players a lot of times.
Hell, you have to factor in games played even when there is a change in roles. Get out the microscope, watch NFL shortcuts/replays and do some personal research. The top scorer/top target/game recap threads can only tell you so much.

My personal research is that Gabriel is a STARTING CALIBER FANTASY WR IN ALL LEAGUES, whose value is currently going under the radar . Top20 is within reach, if you ignore name value. Name value is keeping Randy Moss starting ahead of Marques Colston (it's a powerful drug).

How many weeks of 60/1 do you need to see before you start wanting to put this guy into your lineup, trade for him, or god forbid pick him up off the waiver wire. Another week of 6/70/1 and it could very well be TOO LATE. IE Reggie Williams.

The short and simple: When I watch Gabriel the past two weeks, I'm seeing a guy that is making plays down the field for the Pat's when no one else is. The guy is a threat in the redzone. I've watched Gabriel in his first real action as a Patriot in week 3 get something like 10 targets in the 4th quarter and appear to be Brady's goto guy going down the stretch. Then he follows up that performance with another solid fantasy day in a completely different dynamic the following week. That is not something to be taken lightly, when you've got a QB of Tom Brady's caliber with such a clear VACCUUM of talent at the WR position.

What difference does it make though? "#63 is #63"... do I really have to explain to you what a stupid statement this is? Do rankings not change from week to week? Do I have to explain to you how the #63 WR can score 20 points in week 5 and suddenly become the #30 WR? Or do I have to explain to you that the #20 WR can average 8 points for the rest of the season, while the #63 averages 12 points the rest of the season? Value is value.

Overall rankings have absolutely ZERO impact on a player's value going forward. Read that again, ZERO IMPACT on a player's value going forward. Points scored in week 1-4 are doing absolutely nothing to help your team going forward in this point in time.


I would like to say that Kensat holds my proxy on this one! ;-D
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Postby Kensat30 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 1:34 pm

PS- As of week 4:

Gabriel = WR#40, WR#12 in PPG
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Postby mattb47 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 2:11 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
ateam wrote:He currently resides at the #63 spot in one of my leagues....
========================================

Ummm, you MAY want to preface that w/ the fact that he's only played 2 games! :-t

And in 2 career games w/ Brady, he's caught TDs vs. DEN & CIN.

I could care less that others undervalue DG, he's on my squad, and I'm not looking to deal him. I sat DBranch in lieu of DG this weekend, and now have bolstered my WR depth nicely off the WW. ;-)


Doesn't matter, finishing a top 20 WR is finishing a top 20 WR. There is no disclaimer of "well, he didn't play every game". If he's #63, he's #63.


Look at points per game and come back to me. What is #63 points divided by 2 versus #20 points divided by 4. People who don't factor in games played are missing the boat on players a lot of times.
Hell, you have to factor in games played even when there is a change in roles. Get out the microscope, watch NFL shortcuts/replays and do some personal research. The top scorer/top target/game recap threads can only tell you so much.

My personal research is that Gabriel is a STARTING CALIBER FANTASY WR IN ALL LEAGUES, whose value is currently going under the radar . Top20 is within reach, if you ignore name value. Name value is keeping Randy Moss starting ahead of Marques Colston (it's a powerful drug).

How many weeks of 60/1 do you need to see before you start wanting to put this guy into your lineup, trade for him, or god forbid pick him up off the waiver wire. Another week of 6/70/1 and it could very well be TOO LATE. IE Reggie Williams.

The short and simple: When I watch Gabriel the past two weeks, I'm seeing a guy that is making plays down the field for the Pat's when no one else is. The guy is a threat in the redzone. I've watched Gabriel in his first real action as a Patriot in week 3 get something like 10 targets in the 4th quarter and appear to be Brady's goto guy going down the stretch. Then he follows up that performance with another solid fantasy day in a completely different dynamic the following week. That is not something to be taken lightly, when you've got a QB of Tom Brady's caliber with such a clear VACCUUM of talent at the WR position.

What difference does it make though? "#63 is #63"... do I really have to explain to you what a stupid statement this is? Do rankings not change from week to week? Do I have to explain to you how the #63 WR can score 20 points in week 5 and suddenly become the #30 WR? Or do I have to explain to you that the #20 WR can average 8 points for the rest of the season, while the #63 averages 12 points the rest of the season? Value is value.

Overall rankings have absolutely ZERO impact on a player's value going forward. Read that again, ZERO IMPACT on a player's value going forward. Points scored in week 1-4 are doing absolutely nothing to help your team going forward in this point in time.


The question was will he be a top 20 WR. I don't think that having already missed 2 games that he will be a top 20 WR. I also don't think that you can base an entire season of production based on 2 games where he only had 65 yds at the most in a game. Just because he had a TD in 2 games doesn't automatically make him a top 20 WR. Everyone has seen how Brady spreads the ball around and I don't see this year as being any different, different guys will have big games each week. Sure some of those weeks will be Gabriel, but not every week.

Look at the reception spread so far for the Pats:

B. Watson - 12 rec
D. Gabriel - 10 rec
T. Brown - 10 rec
K. Faulk - 10 rec
R. Caldwell - 9 rec
D. Graham - 8 rec
L. Maroney - 6 rec

Yes, Gabriel has more receptions per game, but with the history that the Pats have of spreading the ball around, it's hard to be extremely optimistic that this will be a trend of consistent production.
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