Leinart's statline vs. Oakland

[Kilroy]

I don't know that Arizona will be able to run the ball successfully even against the Raiders. I'm thinking 200+ with 2+ TDs is well within the realm of possibility.

[Mercer Boy]

Here's the deal with Oakland (at least from my perspective...and this might already be in the post, but I want to have my glory ):

They really stink. Teams know this. They run the ball and rack up 150 yards a game - Oakland has worst rushing defense in the league. Teams score points against Oakland. Oakland doesn't.

Ergo...

Teams don't need to throw on them!

Glaring examples:
Rivers - 8/11! - 1 TD
Smith - 15/19 - 3 TD's
Plummer - 11/18 - 0 TD

"Not as good" examples:
McNair - 16/33, but it was Baltimore who sucks on offense and McNair's been horrid this year. 1 TD, 1 INT.
Frye - 22/32, but it was Cleveland who sucks on offense and Frye's been horrid this year. Plus he had 3 TD's and 2 INT.

Let's look at Arizona:
They stink at running. I bet even Oakland could break through that line. They are awesome at throwing. Leinart is playing 300% better than McNair/Frye and better than all those others except for maybe Rivers. He could easily have an Alex Smith-like line this week.

I know all the stat sites are predicting Leinart to have an off day, but that's because they just use available data to make projections. When 3/5 of their opponents threw less than 20 times, you're going to have a lower amount of passing yards given up. I say Leinart throws for 250 and 2 TD's at least this week.

(Disclaimer - I am starting Leinart over Kitna this week. )

[KasT]

well I guess not.

haha.......I still won though.

Hope everyone else who threw him in was able to pull off the win.

[tclangham]

I was going through all the QB's stats against Oakland thus far and an interesting trend starts to show it's head:

Phillip Rivers // 108 YDS // 1 TD // 0 INT
Steve McNair // 143 YDS // 1 TD // 1 INT
Charlie Frye // 192 YDS // 3 TD // 2 INT
Alex Smith // 165 YDS // 3 TD // 1 INT
Jake Plummer//102 YDS // 0 TD // 0 INT

Now make note that all of these QB's are less than stellar fantasy options. The fact that teams are taking early leads are draining the QB's total YDS against this team. That being said, any QB going up against them is almost guaranteed to throw a TD or two against them. Also what seems to be happening is a false sense of security in that the chances are high that at least one interception will be thrown.

If the trend continues, those who are using Leinart this week should expect a stat line close to the following:

142 YDS // 2 TD // 1 INT (12 to 13 fantasy pts in my league)

I'll be playing him this week as my options are limited.

You were very close in your assessment, yes the Raiders suck but their secondary is young and pretty darn good. Its nice that you won but it kind of sucks that you had the answer and didnt have anyone else to go to to get you more points. Great job of analyzing. And maybe other people will realize that Oak's secondary is pretty good.

[Mercer Boy]

They dominated a throw-first team. Maybe they are legit...

All I know is that it cost me a win this week; I reduced 22 points by not using Kitna and lost by 8.

[Kilroy]

They dominated a throw-first team. Maybe they are legit...

All I know is that it cost me a win this week; I reduced 22 points by not using Kitna and lost by 8.

Right there with you Mercer.

[The_Dude]

Major props... the OP nailed this one. Terrible outing for Leinart.